UNEMPLOYMENT – AUSTRALIA

Hopes for higher pay revised down

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Original article by David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: B8 : 3-Apr-19

The April 2019 Budget papers show that the federal government has scaled back its wage growth forecasts since the mid-year economic and fiscal outlook. It now expects wages to grow by 2.5 per cent in 2018-19 and 2.75 per cent in 2019-20. Wages growth in 2020-21 in turn is expected to be 3.25 per cent. In contrast, the Reserve Bank has forecast wages growth of about 2.5 per cent until 2020, and 2.6 per cent by mid-2021. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is forecast to be five per cent over the forward estimates period, while the labour participation rate is expected to ease to 65.5 per cent in 2018-19.

CORPORATES

Economists see rates on hold this year

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Original article by Sarah Turner, Vesna Poljak, William McInnes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 14 & 21 : 1-Apr-19

The latest quarterly survey of economists shows that the general consensus is that the Reserve Bank of Australia will leave official interest rates unchanged at 1.5 per cent for the remainder of 2019. The previous quarterly survey had shown that respondents expected rates to rise to 1.75 by the end of 2019. Meanwhile, the median forecast for the unemployment rate is 5 per cent by mid-2019, compared with a median forecast of 5.20 per cent in the previous survey. Expectations for underlying inflation in mid-2019 have also been pegged back, from 2.10 per cent in the January survey to 1.80 per cent.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BANK OF AMERICA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, LAMINAR CAPITAL PTY LTD, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Jobless fall gives RBA breathing room

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 22-Mar-19

Australia’s official unemployment rate fell from five per cent to 4.9 per cent in February, with a net gain of 4,600 jobs for the month. The economy shed 7,300 full-time jobs in February, although this was offset by the creation of 11,900 part-time positions. The participation rate and the underutilisation rate both eased slightly, to 65.6 per cent and 13.1 per cent respectively. Economists say the unemployment rate’s fall to an eight-year low will reduce pressure on the Reserve Bank to cut official interest rates.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH, SEEK LIMITED – ASX SEK

Employment growth stalls as overall employment down on a year ago

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Mar-19

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series shows that 12,174,000 Australians were employed in February 2019, down 54,000 over the past year. The fall in employment was driven by a decrease in part-time employment of 60,000 (to 4,015,000); full-time employment was virtually unchanged, up by 6,000 to 8,159,000. The figures also show that 1,292,000 Australians (9.6% of the workforce) were unemployed in February, down 18,000 on a year ago, and the unemployment rate decreased by 0.1%. In addition, 1,156,000 Australians (8.6% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a decrease of 54,000 in a year (down 0.3%). In total, 2,448,000 Australians (18.2% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in February, a decrease of 72,000 in a year (down 0.4%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 9.6% for February is significantly higher than the current ABS estimate for January of 5.0% although Roy Morgan’s under-employment estimate of 8.6% is comparable to the current ABS underemployment estimate of 8.1%. Meanwhile, the latest Roy Morgan Poll conducted over the last two weekends of March 2/3 & 9/10 with a representative cross-section of 1,603 electors shows the ALP 55.5% cf. L-NP 44.5% on a two-party preferred basis. The ALP’s lead amongst women is even stronger with women supporting the ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5% while men also support the ALP but to a lesser degree: ALP 54% cf. L-NP 46%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine comments on the latest employment data

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Original article by Michele Levine, Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Mar-19

The lack of jobs growth over the last year will be a significant concern for the Federal Government, which is due to seek re-election at a Federal election expected in mid-May. As well as the lack of employment growth over the past year the latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence rating for February of only 105.6 – the lowest since August 2015 – indicates Australia’s businesses are waiting for the political uncertainty to clear in a few months’ time. The consecutive ratings below 110 are the slowest start to a year for Business Confidence since the index began. The latest Australian GDP figures showed the economy growing by only 0.2% in the December 2018 quarter, the slowest rate of growth for over two years since a quarterly contraction of 0.5% in the September 2016 quarter. Given the political uncertainty facing Australia over the next two months, with a New South Wales election later in March before the Federal election expected in mid-May, the prospects for the economy and employment growth in the short-term appear to be limited. However, the Federal Government has a chance to ‘reboot the economy’ with a stimulative Federal Budget due to be delivered on the first Tuesday in April. The Budget is also the Morrison Government’s last chance to save their chances of re-election as the Roy Morgan Poll, and other polls, have consistently shown the ALP heading towards an easy election victory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Next rates move still up, RBA insists

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Original article by David Rogers, James Glynn
The Australian – Page: 19 & 28 : 6-Feb-19

The Reserve Bank of Australia has downgraded its forecast for economic growth in 2019 from 3.25 per cent to around three per cent, after leaving the cash rate unchanged at 1.5 per cent. The central bank has also advised that it now expects the unemployment rate to fall to around 4.75 per cent over the next several years, while it forecasts an underlying inflation rate of two per cent in 2019. Analysts expect official interest rates to remain on hold for some time.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Record employment in January driven by increasing full-time jobs

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Feb-19

A Roy Morgan survey shows that a record 12,397,000 Australians were employed in January 2019, up 161,000 over the past year. The increase in employment was driven by a solid increase in full-time employment of 212,000 (to 8,257,000); part-time employment was down 51,000 (to 4,140,000). The figures also show that 1,253,000 Australians (9.2% of the workforce) were unemployed in January (up 34,000 on a year ago), and the unemployment rate increased by 0.1%. In addition, 1,300,000 Australians (9.5% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a decrease of 71,000 in a year (down 0.7%). In total 2,553,000 Australians (18.7% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in January, a decrease of 37,000 in a year (down 0.6%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 9.2% for January is significantly higher than the current ABS estimate for December 2018 of 5.0%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says that despite steady economic growth over the past few years, analysing the employment trends shows that over 2 million Australians have been unemployed or underemployed for over seven years.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

December jobs growth beats forecasts

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Original article by Tim Boyd
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 25-Jan-19

Official data shows that Australia’s unemployment rate eased from 5.1 per cent to five per cent in December, with a net gain of 21,600 jobs during the month. Some 24,600 new part-time jobs were created, although the number of full-time positions fell by 3,000. The general consensus of economists had been for the unemployment rate to remain at 5.1 per cent and for 18,000 new jobs to have been created in December. Meanwhile, the labour market’s under-utilisation rate has fallen by 0.2 per cent to 13.3 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, BIXWOOD PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Unemployment in December is 9.7% and under-employment is 8.8%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Jan-19

Australian unemployment of 9.7% (down 0.1%) and under-employment of 8.8% (down 0.8%), are both down on a year ago, driving a 0.9% fall in overall labour under-utilisation to 18.5% (2.5 million). This is according to the latest employment data from Roy Morgan, which shows that the workforce, which comprises employed Australians and those who are unemployed and looking for work, is now 13,376,000, down 34,000 on a year ago. The decrease in employment was driven by a drop in part-time employment of 89,000 to 4,115,000. An increase in full-time employment of 65,000 to 7,959,000 wasn’t enough to offset this drop. Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 9.7% for December is significantly higher than the current Australian Bureau of Statistics estimate for November 2018 of 5.1%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Part-time workers drive jobs spike

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 21-Dec-18

Official data shows that the Australian economy added 37,000 jobs in November, with a 43,400-strong increase in part-time jobs offsetting the loss of 6,400 full-time positions during the month. The data shows that full- and part-time jobs have grown by 180,200 and 105,500 respectively over the last year. Meanwhile, Australia’s official unemployment rate rose from five per cent to 5.1 per cent in November, while the labour market participation rate increased by 0.2 per cent to 65.7 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF JOBS AND SMALL BUSINESS, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED, INDEED INCORPORATED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA