UNEMPLOYMENT – AUSTRALIA

Real unemployment at 10.3% as L-NP starts new term in Government

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Jun-19

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series shows that 11,926,000 Australians were employed in May 2019, down 219,0000 over the past year. The fall in employment was driven by a significant decrease in part-time employment of 375,000 over the past year (to 3,911,000); full-time employment was up by 156,000 (to 8,015,000). The figures also show that 1,369,000 Australians (10.3% of the workforce) were unemployed in May, up 53,000 on a year ago, and the unemployment rate was up by 0.5%. An additional 1,223,000 Australians (9.2% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a decrease of 28,000 in a year (down 0.1%). In total, 2,592,000 Australians (19.5% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in May, an increase of 25,000 in a year (up 0.4%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 10.3% for May is significantly higher than the current ABS estimate for April 2019 of 5.2%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the first priority for the re-elected Coalition government is to pass the promised income tax cuts as soon as Parliament resumes. Other legislative priorities should include tackling the ‘cash economy’ which undermines law-abiding businesses, reducing the penalty rates for businesses opening on weekends and public holidays, and cutting the regulatory ‘red tape’ that discourages businesses from hiring new workers.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Jobs up, jobless up, pose RBA dilemma

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Matthew Cranston, Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 17-May-19

Official figures show that the Australian economy added a higher-than-expected 28,400 jobs in April, with a net gain of 34,700 part-time jobs offsetting the loss of 6,300 full-time positions. The unemployment rate increased to 5.2 per cent, while the labour force participation rate rose from 65.7 per cent to a record 65.8 per cent. Meanwhile, the underemployment rate rose to 8.3 per cent and the underutilisation rate rose to 13.7 per cent. Shane Oliver of AMP Capital expects the Reserve Bank to reduce official interest rates in June.

CORPORATES
AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, LENDLEASE GROUP – ASX LLC

Rise in jobless lifts chance of rate cut

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 32 : 17-May-19

Financial markets have priced in a 64 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate in June, after official data showed that the unemployment rate rose from five per cent to 5.2 per cent in April. However, George Tharenou of UBS still expects the central bank to leave interest rates on hold until July, preferring to wait for the next set of labour market data before taking action. Ben Jarman of JP Morgan forecasts a rate cut in August.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX

Over 600,000 jobs created since last election, but is it enough for the L-NP?

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-May-19

Roy Morgan real Australian unemployment is 8.9% in April, down 2% in a month, and following the same pattern seen during the last Federal Election when unemployment declined by 1.1% during the campaign before rebounding. There were 1.2 million Australians unemployed in April and a further 1.18 million Australians under-employed – a total of 2.38 million Australians looking for work or looking for more work (17.7% of the workforce). Full-time employment was 8.03 million, up nearly 350,000 since the last election, while part-time employment was 4.22 million (up 260,000). Although over 600,000 jobs have been created since the last Federal Election in July 2016, total unemployment and under-employment remains stuck well above 2 million people.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

RBA sets jobless test for rate cut

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Vesna Poljak, Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 8-May-19

The Reserve Bank has downgraded its 2019 growth forecast for the Australian economy from three per cent to around 2.75 per cent. The central bank indicated on 7 May that a "further improvement" in the labour market will be necessary to lift inflation to its target range. It has also flagged the prospect of an interest rate cut if the employment rate does not fall below five per cent. Michael Blythe of the Commonwealth Bank says the central bank will almost certainly reduce the cash rate if there is even a modest rise in unemployment.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Reserve Bank ready to cut rates

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 19 & 26 : 17-Apr-19

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monthly board meeting indicate that the central bank still expects gradual progress in lifting the inflation rate to its target range and reducing the unemployment rate. However, the minutes show that the RBA would be prepared to reduce the cash rate if inflation remains low and unemployment increases. The Australian dollar fell to a two-week low of $US0.714 in local trading in response to the release of the RBA’s minutes.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Real unemployment jumps to 10.9% as Australians prepare to vote in election

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Apr-19

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series shows that 12,158,000 Australians were employed in March 2019, down 216,000 over the past year. The fall in employment was driven by a significant decrease in part-time employment of 203,000 over the past year (to 4,228,000); full-time employment was virtually unchanged, down by 13,000 (to 7,930,000). The figures also show that 1,491,000 Australians (10.9% of the workforce) were unemployed in March, up 281,000 on a year ago, and the unemployment rate was up by 2%. In addition, 1,321,000 Australians (9.7% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a decrease of 41,000 in a year (down 0.3%). In total, a record high 2,812,000 Australians (20.6% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in March, an increase of 240,000 in a year (up 1.7%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 10.9% for March is significantly higher than the current ABS estimate for February of 4.9%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the disappointing employment figures suggest the real problem facing the Morrison Government has been an inability to solve Australia’s continuing problem of high unemployment and under-employment. Roy Morgan has consistently shown over 2 million Australians looking for work (unemployed) or looking for more work (under-employed) since the L-NP Government was first elected in September 2013 and that problem remains a large one to this day.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, MORGAN POLL, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Hopes for higher pay revised down

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: B8 : 3-Apr-19

The April 2019 Budget papers show that the federal government has scaled back its wage growth forecasts since the mid-year economic and fiscal outlook. It now expects wages to grow by 2.5 per cent in 2018-19 and 2.75 per cent in 2019-20. Wages growth in 2020-21 in turn is expected to be 3.25 per cent. In contrast, the Reserve Bank has forecast wages growth of about 2.5 per cent until 2020, and 2.6 per cent by mid-2021. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is forecast to be five per cent over the forward estimates period, while the labour participation rate is expected to ease to 65.5 per cent in 2018-19.

CORPORATES

Economists see rates on hold this year

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Sarah Turner, Vesna Poljak, William McInnes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 14 & 21 : 1-Apr-19

The latest quarterly survey of economists shows that the general consensus is that the Reserve Bank of Australia will leave official interest rates unchanged at 1.5 per cent for the remainder of 2019. The previous quarterly survey had shown that respondents expected rates to rise to 1.75 by the end of 2019. Meanwhile, the median forecast for the unemployment rate is 5 per cent by mid-2019, compared with a median forecast of 5.20 per cent in the previous survey. Expectations for underlying inflation in mid-2019 have also been pegged back, from 2.10 per cent in the January survey to 1.80 per cent.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BANK OF AMERICA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, LAMINAR CAPITAL PTY LTD, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Jobless fall gives RBA breathing room

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 22-Mar-19

Australia’s official unemployment rate fell from five per cent to 4.9 per cent in February, with a net gain of 4,600 jobs for the month. The economy shed 7,300 full-time jobs in February, although this was offset by the creation of 11,900 part-time positions. The participation rate and the underutilisation rate both eased slightly, to 65.6 per cent and 13.1 per cent respectively. Economists say the unemployment rate’s fall to an eight-year low will reduce pressure on the Reserve Bank to cut official interest rates.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH, SEEK LIMITED – ASX SEK