UNEMPLOYMENT – AUSTRALIA

Unemployment down to 9.4% in September off two-year high

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Oct-18

A Roy Morgan survey shows that 12,164,000 Australians were employed in September, up 192,000 over the past year. The increase was driven by equivalent increases in full-time employment (which was up 97,000 to 7,694,000) and part-time employment (up 95,000 to a record 4,470,000). The figures also show that 1,256,000 Australians (9.4% of the workforce) were unemployed in September, an increase of 54,000 on a year ago (up 0.3%). In addition, 1,127,000 Australians (8.4% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a fall of 169,000 in a year (down 1.4%). In total 2,383,000 Australians (17.8% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in September, a fall of 115,000 in a year (down 1.1%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 9.4% for September remains substantially higher than the current ABS estimate for August of 5.3%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says total unemployment and under-employment in Australia has now exceeded 2 million for three straight years. As we have noted previously, the persistent high level of unemployment and under-employment is not because jobs aren’t being created, but because the workforce continues to grow at a faster rate than the growth in employment.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Headline jobless rate hits lowest in nearly six years

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 17-Aug-18

Official data shows that Australia’s unemployment rate fell from 5.4 per cent to 5.3 per cent in July, to its lowest level since late 2012. More than 19,000 full-time jobs were created in July, offsetting the loss of 23,200 part-time positions, and the labour force participation rate eased from 65.7 per cent to 65.5 per cent. The official unemployment rate has been consistently around the 5.5 per cent level for much of the last year, but the Reserve Bank recently forecast that it will fall to five per cent in 2020.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF JOBS AND SMALL BUSINESS, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Unemployment at 10% in July highest in nearly a year

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Aug-18

A Roy Morgan survey shows that 12,021,000 Australians were employed in July, up 167,000 over the past year. The increase was driven by growth in both full-time employment (which was up 66,000 to 7,765,000) and an even stronger increase in part-time employment (up 101,000 to 4,256,000). The figures also show that 1,329,000 Australians were unemployed (10% of the workforce) in July, an increase of 93,000 (up 0.6%) on a year ago. In addition, 1,148,000 Australians (8.6% of the workforce) are now under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a fall of 78,000 in a year (down 0.8%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 10% for July remains substantially higher than the current ABS estimate for June 2018 of 5.4%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the increasing casualisation of the Australian workforce has strengthened in recent years with the rise of the so-called "gig" economy, but Foodora’s impeding exit from the Australian market shows that there are limits to this type of employment model when regulatory and competition considerations are taken into account. Foodora’s exit also signifies how important it is for governments to create sensible industrial relations laws that encourage employers to take on new workers rather than penalise employers looking to grow their business.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Inflation target here to stay, says Lowe

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 9-Aug-18

The Reserve Bank of Australia remains committed to its long-term goal of returning the inflation rate to 2.5 per cent. Central bank governor Philip Lowe says the inflation target will not be reviewed. Lowe has also indicated that achieving the inflation target is not a prerequisite for increasing official interest rates. He added that the statement of monetary policy to be released on 10 August will show that the RBA does not expect the unemployment rate to fall to five per cent before the end of 2020.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, THE ANIKA FOUNDATION

Jobs boom raises stakes for RBA

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 20-Jul-18

Official data shows that Australia’s unemployment rate was steady at 5.4 per cent in June, with the economy adding a higher-than-expected 50,900 jobs. This comprised 41,200 full-time and 9,700 part-time jobs. The data prompted a rebound in the Australian dollar on 19 July, while it may put pressure on the Reserve Bank to move more quickly to tighten monetary policy. The trend jobless rate was last at its current level in November 2012, when the cash rate was 3.25 per cent, compared with 1.5 per cent at present.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, TD SECURITIES, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Unemployment drops to 8.7% in June, lowest since 2016

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Jul-18

A Roy Morgan survey shows that 12,245,000 Australians were employed in June 2018, down 85,000 over the last year. The fall was driven by a drop in full-time employment, which was down 300,000 to 7,800,000; part-time employment increased by 215,000 to 4,445,000. The figures also show that 1,171,000 Australians were unemployed (8.7% of the workforce) in June, a decrease of 29,000 (down 0.2%) on a year ago. In addition, 1,302,000 Australians (9.7% of the workforce) are now under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a fall of 143,000 in a year (down 1%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 8.7% for June remains substantially higher than the current ABS estimate for May of 5.4%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says that over 2.4 million Australians looking for work or looking for more work in June explains why wage growth remains at record lows. Improving wage growth and the performance of the Australian economy is as simple as designing policies that engage these under-utilised workers and encourage employers to offer more jobs, and more hours, to Australians who want more work.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION

RBA to keep interest rates on hold until 2020: Macquarie

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 22-Jun-18

Macquarie Group economists Ric Deverell and Justin Fabo forecast that Australia’s unemployment rate will not fall below five per cent until 2020. They warn that "persistent" spare capacity in the economy will ensure that wages growth remains subdued in the near-term. As a result, they do not expect the Reserve Bank to tighten monetary policy until at least 2020. However, they note that a number of domestic and international factors could affect the timing of an interest rate rise.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

Jobless rate supertanker heads lower

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 15-Jun-18

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that 12,000 jobs were created in May, although economists had forecast that the economy added 19,000 jobs. An additional 32,600 part-time jobs partially offset the loss of 20,600 full-time positions. The official unemployment rate fell by 0.2 per cent to 5.4 per cent, which is its lowest level since November 2012. Meanwhile, the underemployment rate rose by 0.1 per cent to 8.5 per cent and the proportion of people who are employed but looking for more work was steady at 13.9 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, IFM INVESTORS PTY LTD, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIAN INSTITUTE OF COMPANY DIRECTORS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Australian employment up by over 350,000 in a year

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Jun-18

A Roy Morgan survey shows that 12,415,000 Australians were employed in May 2018, an increase of 355,000 over the last year. The increase was driven by full-time employment, which rose 307,000 to 7,859,000; part-time employment was up 48,000 to 4,286,000. The figures also show that 1,316,000 million Australians were unemployed (9.8% of the workforce) in May, an increase of 32,000 (unchanged in percentage terms) on a year ago. In addition, 1,251,000 Australians (9.3% of the workforce) are now under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a fall of 87,000 in a year (down 0.9%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 9.8% for May is substantially higher than the current ABS estimate for April of 5.6%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the Fair Work Commission’s decision to raise the minimum wage by 3.5% to almost $720 per week was based on the misleading ABS unemployment figure that under-states the "true" level of unemployment and under-employment in Australia. In future the FWC needs to consider the more accurate Roy Morgan employment figures that consistently records that there are more than 2.5 million Australians looking for work or looking for more work.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION

Coalition achieves million jobs vow

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 6 : 18-May-18

Official data shows that Australia’s unemployment rate rose from 5.5 per cent to a nine-month high of 5.6 per cent in April. Some 23,000 jobs were created in April, and the economy has added 1.014 million jobs since the Coalition won office in September 2013. Former prime minister Tony Abbott had made an election commitment to generate one million new jobs during the first five years of a Coalition government. Tom Kennedy of JP Morgan notes that the construction and healthcare sectors accounted for more than 50 per cent of the jobs created during 2017.

CORPORATES
JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB