UNEMPLOYMENT – AUSTRALIA

Australian real unemployment steady at 9.2% (1.199m Australians); Under-employment down 1.5% to 8.4% (1.1m)

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Dec-16

In November 2016 a total of 2.299 million Australians, 17.6% of the workforce, were either unemployed (1,199,000) or under-employed (1,100,000). This is down 237,000 (down 2%) from November 2015. Unemployment is comparable to a year ago with 1.199 million Australians now unemployed (up 13,000 in a year but steady at 9.2% due to overall growth in the workforce). These real unemployment figures are substantially higher than the current ABS figure for October 2016 (5.6%). In November, the Australian workforce increased to 13,046,000 (up 92,000 since November 2015), and total employment increased to 11,847,000 (up 79,000). Full-time employment is now 7,950,000 – up 374,000 from a year ago (7,576,000 in November 2015). In contrast, part-time employment has decreased by 295,000 to 3,897,000 over the past year (an average of just under 25,000 per month). The lower part-time employment contributed to the fall in under-employment; now 8.4% of Australians 1,100,000 (down 250,000 since November 2015) are under-employed (down 2%).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Party’s over as economy turns mediocre

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Original article by Michael Bennet
The Australian – Page: 19 & 23 : 7-Dec-16

Australia’s real GDP growth is expected to have fallen by 0.2 per cent in the September 2016 quarter, with year-on-year growth likely to have slowed to about two per cent. This compares with annual GDP growth of 3.3 per cent in the year to June. Despite the relative strength of the economy and a fall in the jobless rate, Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has conceded that growth in employment has slowed and underemployment has risen to a record high, at 9.3 per cent. Meanwhile, the participation rate has fallen to its lowest level in more than a decade.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Gary Morgan’s comment on Australia’s worrying State-based unemployment picture

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 2-Dec-16

One clear political impact of the worsening employment situation is the rise of regional parties around Australia. In particular we have the rise of the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) in South Australia (three Senators and one Lower House MP), the return of One Nation – primarily in Queensland, but also strong in Western Australia and regional New South Wales (four Senators around Australia), the popularity of Senator Jacqui Lambie and the Jacqui Lambie Network in Tasmania and even the election of Senator Derryn Hinch in Victoria. To overcome the popularity of regional parties Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and the L-NP Government must concentrate more on the regional problems of high and rising unemployment and under-employment with policies prioritising job creation and a growing economy.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, NICK XENOPHON TEAM, ONE NATION PARTY, JACQUI LAMBIE NETWORK, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

The ‘Two-Speed’ economy returns with soaring unemployment and under-employment in Australia’s four smaller States (QLD, WA, SA & Tas)

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 2-Dec-16

Special analysis of Roy Morgan Research real employment estimates in each State over the three months to October 2016 shows that unemployment and under-employment are a growing problem in Australia’s four smallest States of Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania – all four of which now have total unemployment and under-employment above the national average. In contrast, Australia’s two largest States have clearly the healthiest labour markets and New South Wales – with total unemployment and under-employment of 15.2% (down 2.1% from a year ago) is the clear standout. In Victoria 16.0% of the workforce is now unemployed or under-employed – up 1.4% from a year ago but still well below Australia’s national average of 17.6% (up 1.0%). The end of the mining boom has clearly had a big impact on Western Australia – now at 19.6% (up 3.7%) unemployment and under-employment and Queensland 20.3% (up 3.3%), while Australia’s smallest State of Tasmania continues to have a substantial problem with total unemployment and under-employment of 22.5% (up 1.8%). The closure of several large manufacturing plants in South Australia – including the ceasing of Holden Cruze production at its Elizabeth plant in early October has clearly had an impact, and South Australia now has the highest unemployment and under-employment in the nation at 23% (up 5% in a year).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, GM HOLDEN LIMITED

Spike in full-time work puts jobs market doom in shade

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 18-Nov-16

Official data shows that Australia gained a net 98,000 jobs in October 2016. The creation of 41,500 full-time jobs has offset a 31,700 fall in part-time positions during the month. The nation’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.6 per cent, while there was an 0.9 per cent increase in the number of hours worked. The data also shows that 133,000 part-time jobs have been created so far in 2016, while the economy has shed 89,000 full-time jobs.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Gary Morgan’s comment on October unemployment: Donald Trump’s victory in US Presidential race shows electors believe real unemployment is higher than official statistics suggest

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Nov-16

US President-elect Donald Trump consistently stated during his campaign that real unemployment in the US was well over 20% or even 25% rather than the official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) U3 figure – now at 4.9% for October 2016. In May Trump stated: "We have tremendous deficits. Don’t believe the 5 per cent. The real [unemployment] number is 20 per cent. The United States is dying from within, its domestic infrastructure is crumbling and successive administrations have wasted $5 trillion in the Middle East instead of using the money to create jobs and prosperity at home." Trump’s successful candidacy shows that many Americans agree with the new President that the official unemployment figures are considerably under-stated. There is a clear lesson for Australian politicians in Trump’s success.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, UNITED STATES. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

Australian real unemployment now 9.2% (1.188 million Australians) in October 2016

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Nov-16

In October a total of 2.454 million Australians, 19.1% of the workforce, were either unemployed (1,188,000) or under-employed (1,266,000). This is up 256,000 (up 1.7%) from October 2015. 1.188 million Australians (up 78,000 since October 2015) are unemployed and these real unemployment figures are substantially higher than the current ABS figure for September 2016 (5.6%). Australian real unemployment was 9.2% (up 0.4% in a year and up 0.7% in a month). The problem Australia faces can be seen when comparing full-time and part-time employment: Full-time employment is now 7,594,000 – down 83,000 from a year ago (7,677,000 in October 2015). In contrast, part-time employment has increased by 193,000 to 4,069,000 over the past year (an average of just over 16,000 per month).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

In September Australian real unemployment is now 8.5% (up 0.2% in a year) and under-employment 7.7% (up 0.4%)

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Oct-16

A Roy Morgan Research survey on Australia’s labour market has found that the real unemployment rate rose fell by 1.9 per cent month-on-month to 8.5 per cent in September 2016, although it has risen by 0.2 per cent year-on-year. Some 1.101 million Australians (up 43,000 since September 2015) are now unemployed. Meanwhile, the Australian workforce has risen to 12,930,000 (up 166,000 since September 2015), and 11,829,000 Australians are employed (up 123,000 in the last 12 months). The number of people who are under-employed has risen by 66,000 in the last 12 months to 1,002,000 (7.7 per cent of the workforce). The official unemployment rate was 5.6 per cent in August 2016. Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan says the extensive loss of full-time jobs in the Australian economy presents a challenge to the Turnbull Government, and these problems are set to intensify over the next year. The Government’s proposed business tax cuts are a key part of its strategy to get the Australian economy moving again.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, QUEENSLAND NICKEL PTY LTD, GM HOLDEN LIMITED, TOYOTA MOTOR CORPORATION AUSTRALIA LIMITED, DICK SMITH HOLDINGS LIMITED, MASTERS HOME IMPROVEMENT AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Australian real unemployment virtually unchanged at 10.4% (down 0.1%) in August and under-employment drops to 7.1% (down 1.9%)

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Sep-16

Australian real unemployment was virtually unchanged at 10.4 per cent (down 0.1 per cent) in August 2016, nearly double the current ABS figure for July (5.7 per cent). However, this is a substantial increase in unemployment over the past year, with 1.332 million Australians (up 159,000 since August 2015) now unemployed. The Australian workforce has increased to 12,855,000 (up 104,000 since August 2015) over the last year, although total employment actually decreased to 11,523,000 (down 55,000). Meanwhile, a total of 2.249 million Australians, or 17.5 per cent of the workforce (the lowest since October 2015), were either unemployed or under-employed in August. This is up 132,000 from August 2015 (an increase of 0.9 per cent).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Gary Morgan’s comment on the Roy Morgan August real unemployment estimates

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Sep-16

In August Australia’s real unemployment was 10.4 per cent (1.332 million people looking for work, 159,000 more than a year ago) and under-employment was 7.1 per cent (917,000, down 27,000 in a year) – a total of 17.5 per cent (2.249 million) Australians looking for work or looking for more work. Part-time employment spiked in June and July leading into and encompassing the Federal Election period. This phenomenon is not surprising and is consistent with part-time employment increases measured by Roy Morgan before the 2010 and 2013 Federal Elections. Now that this period is past, part-time employment has fallen back as many of these employees are no longer employed while others are now employed full-time. Today’s Roy Morgan real unemployment figures show that much more must be done by the Turnbull Government to provide employment opportunities to Australians looking for work and looking for more work. For the last 51 months (more than four years) in excess of 1 million Australians have been unemployed, stretching back to May 2012, and clearly more than 2 million Australians have been either unemployed or under-employed in every month this year.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET