UNEMPLOYMENT – AUSTRALIA

ABS unemployment follows Roy Morgan’s unemployment data showing job losses in December

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Jan-23

The latest ABS unemployment data released yesterday showed employment down by 14,600 in December, in line with the already released Roy Morgan employment data which showed employment down by 12,000. The ABS data also showed a rise of 0.1% points in the unemployment rate in line with the increase in Roy Morgan’s unemployment rate, up 0.3% points in December – although ABS unemployment at 3.5% is less than half that of Roy Morgan (9.3%). The ABS employment data was collected at the start of December and may be the first inkling of a weakening economy. The decline in jobs in December shows why it is so important for the Albanese Government to get their industrial relations policies right – including dealing with the cash economy. Younger people are heavily represented in the cash economy, which is widespread in the retail and hospitality industries, and also for those employed for domestic duties and in childcare. View the latest Roy Morgan employment data to learn more.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Australian unemployment increased to 9.3% in December in line with the usual seasonal trends for this time of the year

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Jan-23

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that 1.38 million Australians (9.3% of the workforce) were unemployed in December, up 46,000 from November. The increase in unemployment was in line with the usual seasonal trends seen at this time of the year as school leavers and university students joined the workforce. The number of Australians looking for full-time work rose 89,000 to 595,000 in December, while the number of people looking for part-time work fell 43,000 to 789,000. Some 1.36 million Australians (9.1% of the workforce) were under-employed – working part-time but looking for more work – down 16,000 from November. In total, 2.74 million Australians (19.4% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in December, up 30,000 on November. Meanwhile, employment decreased by 12,000 to 13,568,000 in December. This was driven by a drop in full-time employment (down 97,000 to 8,771,000), although part-time employment increased in line with the usual seasonal trends (up by 85,000 to 4,797,000). Roy Morgan’s under-employment figure of 9.1% is over 3% points higher than the ABS estimate of 5.8% for November.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Australian unemployment drops to 8.1% in September as employment soars to a record high above 13.7 million

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Oct-22

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that 1.2 million Australians (8.1% of the workforce) were unemployed in September, down 161,000 (1.1%) from August. The number of Australians looking for full-time work fell 57,000 to 535,000 in September, and the number of people looking for part-time work was down 104,000 to 667,000. Some 1.56 million Australians (10.5% of the workforce) were under-employed – working part-time but looking for more work – up 59,000 from August. In total, 2.76 million Australians (18.6% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in September, up 72,000 on August. Meanwhile, employment increased by 218,000 to a record high of 13,705,000 in September. This was driven by a rise in both full-time employment (up 197,000 to 8,881,000) and part-time employment (up 21,000 to a record high of 4,824,000). Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.1% for September is more than double the ABS estimate for August of 3.5%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Aussie unemployment is set to soar in 2023

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Original article by Leith van Onselen
MacroBusiness – Page: Online : 24-Aug-22

The fall in Australia’s official unemployment rate to 3.4% has capped off a tremendous post-pandemic rebound that has delivered the best labour market in generations. The result also signalled that the boom is nearing an end, with total jobs and hours worked falling sharply in July; the unemployment rate only fell due to a decline in the participation rate. The collapse in immigration during the pandemic is the primary reason why Australia’s unemployment rate has fallen to a 48-year low. However, it has been widely reported that the Albanese Government will use the upcoming Jobs & Skills Summit as a trojan horse to increase Australia’s permanent migrant intake to its highest ever level. Accordingly, Australia next year faces its biggest ever intake of net overseas migration, easily eclipsing the all-time high 316,000 recorded in 2008 during the Rudd Government’s reign. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is a lagging economic indicator that will not have captured the RBA’s aggressive rate hikes over the past four months. Never has the RBA commenced a rate tightening cycle with consumer confidence in such a poor state. Outside of the pandemic, consumer confidence is tracking around its lowest level since the early 1990s recession. Ramping-up immigration at the same time as the economy grinds to a halt from aggressive rate hikes is bad news for Australian workers. They will soon find it more difficult to score and job and negotiate higher wages.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

The Hidden Unemployed must not be ignored at the Jobs & Skills Summit

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Original article by Michele Levine
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Aug-22

The latest Roy Morgan unemployment figures for July show that there are 1.25 million Australians out of work and looking for a job (8.5% of the workforce), and another 1.27 million who want to work more hours (8.6% of the workforce). However, the ABS unemployment figures say that only 3.4% of the workforce is unemployed (474,000). The key reason for the difference of over 770,000 people is the way being unemployed is defined. Roy Morgan asks a person who is not in paid employment if they are looking for paid work. If the answer is yes, Roy Morgan considers that person to be unemployed. The ABS classifies a person as unemployed only if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week. That means anyone out of work for three weeks is never counted. The ABS also publishes an annual survey on ‘Potential workers’ which much more accurately captures the true level of unemployment in Australia. In late May 2022 the ABS released the latest version of this survey for the month of February. It showed that there were 1.8 million ‘Potential workers’ in Australia and another 900,000 under-employed workers – over 2.7 million Australians either wanting to work or wanting to work more hours. The remarkable aspect of this release is that the figures are so similar to those from Roy Morgan. These extra potential workers should not be forgotten in the deliberations at the federal government’s Jobs & Skills Summit.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Australian unemployment increases to 8.5% in July as workforce swells to 14.7 million Australians

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Aug-22

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that 1.25 million Australians (8.5% of the workforce) were unemployed in July, up 121,000 (0.7%) from June. The number of Australians looking for full-time work was up 85,000 to 494,000 in July, and the number of people looking for part-time work was up 36,000 to 752,000. Some 1.27 million Australians (8.6% of the workforce) were under-employed – working part-time but looking for more work – up 44,000 from June. In total, 2.52 million Australians (17.1% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in July, up 165,000 on June. Meanwhile, employment increased by 74,000 to 13,440,000 in July, driven by an increase in full-time employment (up 8,000 to 8,884,000); part-time employment rose by 66,000 to 4,556,000. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.5% for July is more than double the ABS estimate for June of 3.5%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Red-hot jobs market to push RBA harder on rates

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Original article by Michael Roddan, Cecile Lefort, David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 17-Jun-22

The latest labour force data has heightened expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will continue to aggressively tighten monetary policy. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the economy added about 60,000 jobs in May, well above market expectations of 25,000. The official unemployment rate was steady at 3.9 per cent, and the underemployment rate was down 0.4 percentage points to 5.7 per cent. There is now widespread consensus among economists that the RBA will increase the cash rate by 50 basis points in July, and some economists anticipate that this will be followed by 50 basis point rises in both August and September.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

RBA opens door to 2022 rate rise

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Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 3-Feb-22

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has signalled that official interest rates could potentially rise before the end of 2022 if the economy continues to perform well. However, he has downplayed suggestions that the cash rate may be increased four times in 2022, arguing that Australia’s inflation rate is still well below that of countries such as the US and the UK. Lowe also said that the unemployment rate could soon fall below four per cent. The Commonwealth Bank still expects the cash rate to be increased in August.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Lowe keeps nation guessing on rates

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 2-Feb-22

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has downplayed speculation that official interest rates will rise in 2022. Lowe stated that although inflation has increased, it is not yet sustainably within the central bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent. This has been identified as a prerequisite for increasing the cash rate, which was left at a record low of 0.1 per cent on Tuesday. The RBA will also end its quantitative easing program. Meanwhile, Lowe has forecast that core inflation will peak at 3.25 per cent, compared with 2.6 per cent at present, while he expects the unemployment rate to fall below four per cent later in 2022.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Australian unemployment increases to 9.2% in October – as over 12 million Australians are released from long lockdowns

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Nov-21

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that 1.32 million Australians were unemployed in October, up 55,000 on September, for an unemployment rate of 9.2%. Driving the increase was more people looking for part-time work (up 114,000 to 849,000) while there was a decrease in people looking for full-time work (down 59,000 to 471,000). Some 1.23 million Australians (8.6% of the workforce) were under-employed – working part-time but looking for more work, an increase of 64,000 (up 0.6% points) on September. In total, 2.55 million Australians (17.8% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in October, an increase of 119,000 on September. Meanwhile, employment dropped 289,000 to 13,019,000 in October, driven by the decrease in part-time employment (down 379,000 to 4,281,000 – the lowest since August 2020). In contrast, full-time employment increased by 90,000 in October to 8,738,000. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.2% for October is over 4% points higher than the current ABS estimate for September 2021 of 4.6%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS