VALUATION – AUSTRALIA

BHP closes in on CBA’s crown as ASX king

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Original article by Cecile Lefort
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 13-Jan-26

Shares in BHP have risen by 30 per cent in the last six months, lifting its market capitalisation to $236bn. The resources giant is now just 8.5 per cent shy of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s market cap of $258bn, and a continued strong run could see it reclaim the title of the ASX’s biggest company. CBA’s shares peaked at $192 in mid-2025; Peter Gardner from Plato Investment Management believes that CBA is still a bit overvalued at its current price of about $154 per share. Meanwhile, BHP has been buoyed by strong commodity prices, which has prompted investors to rebalance their portfolios in favour of mining companies rather than banks.

CORPORATES
BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, PLATO INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Echoes of lithium boom as rare earth stocks soar

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 15-Oct-25

Shares in rare earths producers have rallied due to factors such as rising demand for the critical minerals and concerns over supply amid renewed trade tensions between the US and China. Lynas Rare Earths has risen by 227 per cent so far in 2025, while Australian Strategic Materials is up 272 per cent. US-based MP Materials has in turn rise by 480 per cent in the year-to-date. However, Macquarie analysts now consider shares in both Lynas and Iluka Resources to be fully priced, contending that these stocks have outpaced gains in underlying rare earths prices. The firm has an ‘outperform’ rating on Meteoric Resources, whose shares rose 17.1 per cent to $0.24 on Tuesday.

CORPORATES
LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED – ASX LYC, AUSTRALIAN STRATEGIC MATERIALS LIMITED – ASX ASM, MP MATERIALS CORPORATION, MACQUARIE EQUITIES LIMITED, ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX ILU, METEORIC RESOURCES NL – ASX MEI

Nine’s publishing to out-earn TV

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Original article by Sam Buckingham-Jones
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 17 : 6-Aug-25

Jarden analyst Tom Beadle recently said that the value contained within Nine Entertainment’s publishing business could potentially be the most underappreciated part of the media group. The investment bank has valued Nine’s publishing assets at $885m, ahead of streaming video platform Stan ($655m) and the broadcast division ($601m); Jarden estimates that Nine’s radio stations are worth about $25m. Looking forward, Nine’s publishing assets are forecast to generate EBITDA of $156m by 2028; this compares with expectations of $153m for the group’s television network, which is facing higher costs.

CORPORATES
NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, STAN ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, NINE NETWORK AUSTRALIA LIMITED, NINE RADIO PTY LTD, JARDEN AND COMPANY

AusSuper puts Origin deal on edge

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 22 : 1-Nov-23

The $18.7 billion takeover bid for Origin Energy will require the support of 75 per cent of shareholders when they vote on the deal later in November. However, the acquisition of Origin by Brookfield Asset Management and EIG Partners appears to be increasingly uncertain, following AustralianSuper’s decision to reject the deal. The industry superannuation giant has a 13.7 per cent stake in Origin, contending that the offer of about $8.81 per share is substantially below its estimate of Origin’s long-term value. Several other institutional investors believe that the offer price is too low.

CORPORATES
ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT INCORPORATED, EIG GLOBAL ENERGY PARTNERS, AUSTRALIANSUPER PTY LTD

‘Weaker housing’: Morgan Stanley slashes banks’ valuations

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Original article by Emma Rapaport
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 22-Jun-22

Morgan Stanley analysts have warned that a recession in Australia and New Zealand is becoming more likely. Factors such as the worsening economic outlook and rising interest rates have prompted Morgan Stanley to downgrade its valuations for Australia’s four major banks, given their exposure to the housing market. The share prices of the ‘big four’ banks have fallen sharply since the Reserve Bank increased the cash rate by a higher-than-expected 50 basis points in June, while another rate rise is likely in July.

CORPORATES
MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Valuer Acumentis predicts rise in distressed sales

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 32 : 30-Oct-20

Listed valuation firm Acumentis has reported revenue of $13.4 million for the September quarter, compared with just $8.4 million for the entire 2019-20 financial year. The firm has posted a pre-tax profit of $1.6 million for the quarter. Acumentis notes that it is benefiting from an improvement in residential activity, while it predicts an increase in forced home sales as JobKeeper payments and mortgage repayment deferral periods end.

CORPORATES
ACUMENTIS GROUP LIMITED – ASX ACU

Super funds lose billions as crisis hits

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 15 & 22 : 25-Mar-20

The financial market turmoil caused by the coronavirus pandemic has weighed on asset valuations in the superannuation industry. AustralianSuper has slashed the value of its portfolio of unlisted assets by 7.5 per cent, while IFM Investors has cut the valuations of its Australian unlisted assets by an average of 7.6 per cent. Both group have exposure to a range of infrastructure assets, such as airports and toll roads. Other super funds are also reviewing the value of their unlisted assets.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIANSUPER PTY LTD, IFM INVESTORS PTY LTD

Seven, Prime buff up terms of merger deal

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 9-Dec-19

Seven West Media and regional affiliate Prime Media Group have declined to comment on speculation that investors may be offered a special dividend to make their proposed merger more attractive. Seven’s offer values Prime at between $0.183 and $0.206 per share, but an independent expert’s report has valued Prime at between $0.21 and $0.24 per share. Paying a cash dividend and utilising Prime’s franking credits would lift the bid to a range that is closer to this valuation.

CORPORATES
SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, PRIME MEDIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX PRT, LONERGAN EDWARDS AND ASSOCIATES LIMITED, WIN CORPORATION PTY LTD, BIRKETU PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN COMMUNITY MEDIA, REGAL FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD

Prime offer too low: Catalano

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Original article by John Stensholt
The Australian – Page: 19 : 21-Nov-19

Businessman Antony Catalano says Seven West Media’s takeover offer for regional affiliate Prime Media Group is close to fair value, but he has urged Seven to increase the offer to make it both "fair and reasonable". An independent expert’s report has concluded that the $63m bid is "not fair but reasonable". Catalano and Alex Waislitz bought Australian Community Media earlier in 2019. Waislitz says there is potential for Prime to share newsroom and advertising resources with ACM, and he has urged Prime shareholders to consider alternatives to the Seven deal.

CORPORATES
SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, PRIME MEDIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX PRT, AUSTRALIAN COMMUNITY MEDIA, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, THORNEY OPPORTUNITIES LIMITED – ASX TOP, THORNEY TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED – ASX TEK

Lendlease and Vicinity both takeover targets, says JPM

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Original article by Nick Lenaghan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 23-Apr-19

JP Morgan’s Global REIT Radar report suggests that a sharp fall in the share prices of Lendlease and Vicinity Centres could make them potential takeover targets. Ben Brayshaw of JP Morgan says both stocks are currently trading well below the firm’s estimate of their net asset value. The report also notes that real estate investment trusts have delivered a total return of 18.5 per cent over the last year, while global equities have returned just 7.6 per cent.

CORPORATES
LEND LEASE GROUP LIMITED – ASX LLC, VICINITY CENTRES – ASX VCX, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CROWN ESTATE, MAURICE BLACKBURN PTY LTD, SUPREME COURT OF NEW SOUTH WALES