VALUATION – AUSTRALIA

Woodside’s cheap trick

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Original article by Perry Williams, Sarah Thompson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 9-Sep-15

Shares in Oil Search closed 17.4 per cent higher at $A7.90 on 8 September 2015, in response to an $A11.6bn takeover bid from Woodside Petroleum. The offer comprises one Woodside share for every four shares in Oil Search, which values the bid at $A7.65 per share based on current share prices. However, Credit Suisse believes that Woodside would need to lift its offer to around $A10 per share to gain Oil Search’s support for the bid. Woodside shares were $A0.92 lower at $A29.66.

CORPORATES
OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC, BG GROUP PLC, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, GRESHAM PARTNERS LIMITED, HERBERT SMITH FREEHILLS PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, ALLENS

Large caps shine in under-loved index

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 24-Jul-15

Analysis by Morningstar shows that the Australian sharemarket is currently trading at a price/earnings ratio of 15.5. The market’s earnings yield is 6.5 per cent, while the yield on 10-year bonds is around three per cent. Morningstar believes that the local sharemarket still offers value, and it favours large-capitalisation stocks such as National Australia Bank, BHP Billiton, Veda Group, Santos and Goodman Group.

CORPORATES
MORNINGSTAR PTY LTD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, VEDA GROUP LIMITED – ASX VED, PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED – ASX PTM, GOODMAN GROUP – ASX GMG, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, AWE LIMITED – ASX AWE, ALUMINA LIMITED – ASX AWC, ATLAS IRON LIMITED – ASX AGO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, ARRIUM LIMITED – ASX ARI, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Fundies say $400m price tag too high for Amaysim

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Original article by David Ramli
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 15-Jun-15

Analysts value mobile telephone services reseller Amaysim at between $A367m and $A483m. The private equity owners of Amaysim are believed to be looking at a valuation of about $A400m for a proposed IPO. Amaysim currently boasts about 716,000 mobile phone subscribers and forecasts that its customer base will top one million by fiscal 2019. However, the telco is facing competition from Australia’s three mobile network owners.

CORPORATES
AMAYSIM AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, SINGTEL OPTUS PTY LTD, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, VODAFONE HUTCHISON AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NETFLIX INCORPORATED

South32 faces first asset impairment

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 10-Jun-15

Australian-listed South32 is reviewing the valuation its 60 per cent stake in the Samancor manganese joint venture, prompting speculation of a potential asset write-down. Deutsche Bank has estimated that South32’s manganese operations will account for 11 per cent of the BHP Billiton spin-off’s EBITDA for fiscal 2016. South32 shares closed $A0.05 lower at $A2.09 on 9 June 2015.

CORPORATES
SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, ANGLO AMERICAN PLC, DEUTSCHE BANK AG

Soaring small caps perturb strategists

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Original article by Rose Powell, Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 3-Jun-15

Australian-listed small-capitalisation industrial stocks have rallied since March 2015, while industrials in the S&P/ASX 50 have generally underperformed. Investor support for small-caps has been driven by factors such as an upturn in the sector’s return on equity (ROE), as well as a corresponding decline in ROE for larger stocks. Meanwhile, Matthew Ross of Goldman Sachs says valuations in the small-cap sector may have become stretched.

CORPORATES
GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 50 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, IPROPERTY GROUP LIMITED – ASX IPP, NEXTDC LIMITED – ASX NXT, DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED – ASX DMP, TECHNOLOGY ONE LIMITED – ASX TNE, CORPORATE TRAVEL MANAGEMENT LIMITED – ASX CTD, INFOMEDIA LIMITED – ASX IFM, SIRTEX MEDICAL LIMITED – ASX SRX, ALTIUM LIMITED – ASX ALU, MANTRA GROUP LIMITED – ASX MTR, TFS CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TFC

Stock index ‘loaded with risk’

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 27-May-15

The head of Australian equities at Lazard, Rob Osborn, is concerned about the S&P/ASX 200’s weighting toward banks. The sector comprised nearly 42 per cent of the benchmark index in March 2015, and Osborn notes that one sector has had a significant weighting in the index on just two other occasions in the last 15 years – the technology boom in 2000 and the resources boom in 2008. In both instances a correction resulted in these sectors falling sharply. Meanwhile, bank stocks have fallen by nearly 10 per cent since March.

CORPORATES
LAZARD PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, DAVNET LIMITED, ECORP LIMITED, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS

Just Eat paid ‘crazy’ amount for Menulog, say Delivery Hero

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Original article by Yolanda Redrup
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 25-May-15

Delivery Hero CEO Clive Thorpe believes that about $A400m would have been a more appropriate sale price for Australian online food delivery group Menulog. UK-based Just Eat has agreed to pay $A855m for Menulog, which had 6.3 million orders in the year to March 2015. In contrast, Delivery Hero recently paid $US589m ($A752m) for Turkey-based Yemeksepeti, whose monthly orders exceed three million.

CORPORATES
MENULOG PTY LTD, JUST EAT LIMITED, DELIVERY HERO HOLDING GMBH, YEMEKSEPETI, ORIENTAL TEA HOUSE, DAVID’S, EAT NOW SERVICES PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. FOREIGN INVESTMENT REVIEW BOARD

Bank price bubble fear

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 27-Feb-15

Minack Advisors’ Gerard Minack says valuations in Australia’s banking sector would be severely affected by a sharp downturn in the nation’s economy. He also warns that bank stocks could face a major bubble as investors increasingly turn to equities in search of better yields than those available from cash investments such as term deposits. The shift to equities is likely to accelerate amid expectations of further official interest rate cuts

CORPORATES
MINACK ADVISORS PTY LTD, MAPLE-BROWN ABBOTT LIMITED

‘Acquisitions the only way’ for South32

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Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 4-Feb-15

BHP Billiton’s proposed South32 spin-off is slated to debut on the Australian sharemarket by mid-2015. Deutsche Bank’s Paul Young has a valuation of $US13bn ($A16.7bn) on South32, and cautions that the group will have to pursue acquisitions as its scope for organic growth will be limited. He expects South32 to shun BHP’s progressive dividends policy in favour of a payout ratio of 30-40 per cent

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, SOUTH32 LIMITED, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, SOUTH AFRICA COAL

Why CBA is a standout with investors

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 4-Feb-15

Morgan Stanley estimates that Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) shares are now trading at 15.7 times the group’s forecast earnings for 2014-15. In contrast, the stock has traded at an average of around 12.9 per cent during the last 10 years. CBA shares have risen by 5.5 per cent in the last month, closing above $A90 on 3 February 2015. Shares in the three other major banks have also rallied in 2015, but CBA is the only one with a 30 June financial year

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, BLOOMBERG LP, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MORNINGSTAR PTY LTD