VICTORIA – POLITICS AND GOVERNMENT

Liberal 21.6% vote (up 4.4%) in Victoria’s Mulgrave State by-election is too low to indicate Victorians have changed their allegiance with Labor

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Michele Levine, Julian McCrann
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Nov-23

The Victorian ALP won the State by-election in Mulgrave easily on the weekend after Liberal Party candidate Courtney Mann managed to gain only a 4.4% swing on primary votes compared to last year’s State Election result. In addition, independent candidate Ian Cook gained only a small primary vote swing of 0.9% while there were also gains for several other minor party and independent candidates. On a two-party preferred basis, the swing away from the ALP was only 4.6%. ALP candidate Eden Foster secured 56.2% of the two-party preferred vote compared to 43.8% for Independent candidate Ian Cook. A yet to be calculated preference distribution between the Liberal and ALP candidates is likely to show a similar result between the two major parties. (The Poll Bludger has estimated the two-party preferred result between the two major parties will be ALP: 56.5% cf. LIB 43.5% – a swing of only 3.7% to the Liberals). Although Liberal Leader John Pesutto claimed on the night that the result "sent Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan a strong message" in fact the result underlined how far in front the ALP Government is. History shows that by-elections generally provide a strong swing to the Opposition, and particularly when a popular local member – like former Premier Daniel Andrews – resigns and is replaced.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF VICTORIA

Deeming vows to sue Liberal leader Pesutto for defamation after mediation fails

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Original article by Annika Smethurst
The Age – Page: Online : 21-Nov-23

Victorian MP Moira Deeming says the allegedly defamatory comments made by state Liberal leader John Pesutto have caused enormous harm to her family "personally, financially and reputationally". Deeming adds that she was left with no option but to pursue a defamation case against Pesutto after mediation talks broken down on Sunday. Deeming was suspended and subsequently expelled from the Liberal partyroom after she addressed a Let Women Speak rally that was gatecrashed by neo-Nazis. Pesutto has denied that he had compared Deeming to a Nazi sympathiser, and says he will vigorously defend the legal action. Deeming has in turn rejected suggestions that she is seeking $1m from Pesutto.

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LIBERAL PARTY OF VICTORIA

Commonwealth Games fiasco biggest debacle in nation’s events history

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Original article by Mitch Clarke, Jade Gailberger
Herald Sun – Page: Online : 24-Oct-23

Events industry veteran Simon Thewlis has criticised the Victorian government’s handling of the 2026 Commonwealth Games, which it cancelled in July due to a cost blowout. Thewlis says the government owes the events industry an apology, arguing that the decision to withdraw from hosing the Games was the "final insult" for a sector that had already been hard hit by the pandemic. Meanwhile, Volleyball Australia CEO Andrew Dee has told a parliamentary inquiry into the Games’ cancellation that Victoria has suffered significant reputational damage, and organisers of major events will shun the state for some time.

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VOLLEYBALL AUSTRALIA

Divisive Andrews bows out early

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Original article by Gus McCubbing, Patrick Durkin
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 27-Sep-23

Victoria’s outgoing Premier Daniel Andrews says he arrived at the decision to resign a few days ago, as he began to consider life after politics for the first time. He will formally step down as premier and the member for Mulgrave at 5pm on Wednesday, after more than two decades in state parliament and having led Labor to three election wins since 2014. Andrews says his legacy as premier will be "for others" to determine, but Opposition leader John Pesutto contends that his legacy will be mounting debt for future generations. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has described Andrews as a man of "great conviction" and "fierce determination" to make a difference.

CORPORATES
VICTORIA. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET, LIBERAL PARTY OF VICTORIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Allan no certainty to succeed Andrews

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Original article by Rachel Baxendale
The Australian – Page: 6 : 27-Sep-23

Victoria’s Deputy Premier Jacinta Allan is widely tipped to succeed Daniel Andrews as the state’s 49th premier. The transport and infrastructure minister is a member of Victorian Labor’s Socialist Left faction, as is Andrews. However, some Labor insiders have flagged the potential for factional unrest if rival contenders for the party’s leadership emerge. Labor’s caucus will meet on Wednesday to determine a successor to Andrews, but the party’s rules require nominations for leader to remain open for three days; the vote must go to a ballot of Labor members and state caucus if there is more than one nomination. This means that the new premier may not be decided until at least early next week.

CORPORATES
VICTORIA. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

No cost-benefit analysis done for $2b in legacy Games projects

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Original article by Rachel Eddie
The Age – Page: Online : 26-Jul-23

The Victorian government is under scrutiny over its plans to proceed with $2bn worth of Commonwealth Games-related infrastructure in regional areas. Premier Daniel Andrews has admitted that the government has not done a cost-benefit analysis of the expenditure on new social and affordable housing and upgraded sports facilities in regions that were to have hosted Games events. He contends that such an analysis is not necessary, as it is "common sense" that an increase in affordable housing is needed in regional Victoria. National Party senator Bridget McKenzie says she is shocked but not surprised that the state government has not undertaken a cost-benefit analysis, adding that the $2bn investment will not be sufficient to address problems in regional Victoria.

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VICTORIA. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Taxpayers on hook for big bill as Commonwealth Games axed

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Original article by Annika Smethurst, Rachel Eddie, Broede Carmody, Michael Gleeson
The Age – Page: Online : 19-Jul-23

The Victorian government has not disclosed the likely cost of triggering the cancellation clause in its contract to host the 2026 Commonwealth Games. However, legal advice provided to the Queensland government in 2012 about the potential axing of the 2018 Gold Coast Games suggested that the state would be liable to pay for the cost of staging the Commonwealth Games in another city; the state Labor party estimated at the time that this could cost around $1bn. The Victorian government still intends to spend some $2 billion on Games-related infrastructure in regional towns that were to have hosted events. Meanwhile, Commonwealth Games Australia CEO Craig Phillips has questioned the government’s estimate that the cost of hosting the Games has blown out from just $2.6bn to at least $6.2bn.

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COMMONWEALTH GAMES AUSTRALIA

Andrews’ great wall of silence

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Original article by Patrick Carlyon, Mitch Clarke, Carly Douglas
Herald Sun – Page: 7 : 7-Jun-23

The Victorian government is under scrutiny over revelations that Premier Daniel Andrews addressed a forum in Melbourne on Monday night to which access was restricted to the Chinese media. Andrews has indicated that he has "no idea" why Australian journalists were banned from attending the Post Pandemic China-Australia Economic Co-operation Forum. Opposition leader John Pesutto says it is unacceptable for any political leader to give speeches in secret. Liberal senator James Paterson recently raised concerns that one of the forum’s sponsors is a "front group" for China’s top spy agency.

CORPORATES
VICTORIA. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET, LIBERAL PARTY OF VICTORIA, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Land tax changes won’t drive up rents: Andrews

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Original article by Broede Carmody, Rachel Eddie, Jim Malo
The Age – Page: Online : 25-May-23

The Victorian government continues to attract scrutiny over the Covid debt reduction measures in its 23 May budget, which include a land tax on residential investment properties. Premier Daniel Andrews contends that landlords will not seek to recoup the cost of the new tax by increasing their rent charges, although the Centre for Independent Studies’ chief economist Peter Tulip argues that many landlords have relatively thin margins and will need to increase their rents. Treasurer Tim Pallas has indicated that the state government may consider options such as capping rent increases, although he has ruled out a rent freeze. Family homes will be exempt from the land tax.

CORPORATES
VICTORIA. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET, VICTORIA. DEPT OF TREASURY AND FINANCE, THE CENTRE FOR INDEPENDENT STUDIES LIMITED

Support for the Andrews Government up since the Victorian Election; Pesutto’s handling of Moira Deeming had a negative impact on his job approval as leader

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-May-23

A Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll shows that support for the ALP Government in Victoria has increased to 61.5% (up 6.5% points since the 2022 state election) on a two-party preferred basis; support for the Liberal-National Coalition is on 38.5% (down 6.5% points). Primary vote support for the ALP has increased by 5.3% points to 42% since the election, while support for the L-NP Coalition is down 6% points to 28.5%. Support for the Greens is up 1% point to 12.5%, while support for other minor parties and independents attracts 17% of the vote (down 0.3% points). Meanwhile, Premier Daniel Andrews has a large lead over Opposition leader John Pesutto as the preferred Premier in the first head-to-head poll Roy Morgan has conducted between the two leaders. Now 64% of electors say Andrews would make the ‘Better Premier’, compared to only 36% who say Pesutto. Now 52.5% (down 5% points since November) of Victorian electors approve of the way Andrews is handling his job, while 47.5% (up 5% points) disapprove. In contrast, a majority of 53.5% of Victorian electors disapprove of the job Pesutto is doing, and only 46.5% approve. This Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll was conducted from May 17-22, 2023, with a Victoria-wide cross-section of 2,095 Victorian electors aged 18+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF VICTORIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, VICTORIA. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET