VICTORIA – POLITICS AND GOVERNMENT

ALP fears for 10 seats amid late challenges as Victorian polling day nears

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Original article by John Ferguson, Angelica Snowden
The Australian – Page: 6 : 24-Nov-22

Labor strategists believe that the party could potentially lose 8-10 seats at the Victorian election on Saturday, and these seats are likely to be targeted by both major political parties in the final days of the election campaign. The loss of so many seats could reduce Labor to a minority government, as some of these seats are likely to fall to Greens and independent candidates rather than the Coalition. Meanwhile, the state government’s Suburban Rail Loop dominated the election on Wednesday, with the Opposition pushing Premier Daniel Andrews to release costings for the project.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF VICTORIA

ALP Government of Daniel Andrews set to win with a reduced majority as support for L-NP grows – but will the trend continue?

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Nov-22

A special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll shows that the Victorian ALP on 55% (down 2% points since early November) has an election-winning lead over the L-NP Coalition on 45% (up 2% points) on a two-party preferred basis. The Poll shows a swing of 2.3% points away from the ALP since the 2018 Victorian Election in which the ALP on 57.3% defeated the L-NP on 42.7% (a near record margin of 14.6% points). Primary vote support for the two major parties shows the ALP now at 38% (down 4.9% points from the 2018 Election) ahead of the L-NP on 32.5% (down 2.7% points). Support for the Greens is at 12.5% (up 1.8% points) while total support for ‘Other parties and independents’ is now at 17% (up 5.8% points). There are many seats on tight margins that will be closely contested at the election. If the Roy Morgan Poll result of a uniform swing of 2.3% points away from the ALP to the Liberal-National coalition is the outcome this would lead to five or six seats being lost to the Liberal Party. However, even if the Liberal Party does pick up five or six seats from the ALP Government they may lose three or four seats to a ‘Teal Independent’ candidate elsewhere. This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll was conducted with a Victoria-wide cross-section of 1,195 Victorian electors aged 18+ conducted from Tuesday November 22 to Wednesday November 23.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF VICTORIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Victorians get poorer under Labor

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 10 : 23-Nov-22

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that Victoria’s gross household disposable income per person was $52,488 in 2021-22, which is the second-lowest among the states and territories. Victoria’s gross household disposable income per person had been ranked fourth in 1999, and reached the third-highest in the early 2000s. Former federal Treasury economist Stephen Anthony says the state government has overseen a "pyramid scheme" built on high debt; he says it is very clear that Premier Daniel Andrews has destroyed living standards and been "fiscally profligate". Victoria’s net debt is forecast to rise to $166bn in 2025-26, which equates to 24.6 per cent of the state’s economy

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, VICTORIA. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET

Greens reveal key policies ahead of Victorian election

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Original article by Mitch Clarke
Herald Sun – Page: Online : 16-Nov-22

Action on climate action and housing affordability are among the key demands that the Victorian Greens will seek in return for supporting Labor if it is unable to form a majority government after the state election. Amongst other things, the Greens would push for a total ban on onshore and offshore gas exploration and production, a statewide ban on logging in native forests, and capping rent increases in line with wages. Premier Daniel Andrews has consistently ruled out any deals with the Greens or independent candidates.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN GREENS, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, VICTORIA. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET

ALP lead over Coalition in Victoria narrows since October and is back to 2018 Election result as minor parties surge: ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Nov-22

A special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll shows that the ALP has retained a large election-winning lead over the Liberal-National Coalition in Victoria. The ALP is now on 57% (down 3.5% points since campaigning began) on a two-party preferred basis, well ahead of the L-NP on 43% (up 3.5% points). The two-party preferred results of this week’s Snap SMS Poll are almost identical to the results from the 2018 Victorian Election in which the ALP on 57.3% defeated the L-NP on 42.7% – a margin of 14.6% points. However, comparing the primary voting results from this Snap SMS Poll to the 2018 Victorian Election shows a large move to minor parties and independents – the same thing Roy Morgan saw at this year’s Federal Election. Primary vote support for the two major parties shows the ALP now at 40% (down 2.9% points from the 2018 Victorian Election) ahead of the L-NP on 29% (down 6.2% points). Support for the Greens is at 11.5% (up 0.8% points) while total support for ‘Other parties and independents’ is now at 19.5% (up 8.3% points). Among the minor parties support for so-called ‘Teal Independents’ is now at 4.5% while there is 1% support for Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party, 0.5% support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party and 13.5% support other minor parties and independents. This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll was conducted with a Victoria-wide cross-section of 1,030 Victorian electors aged 18+ conducted from Wednesday November 9 to Thursday November 10.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF VICTORIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, JUSTICE PARTY, UNITED AUSTRALIA PARTY

ALP increases its large election-winning lead over the Liberal-National Coalition in Victoria in September: ALP 60% cf. L-NP 40%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Oct-22

A multi-mode Roy Morgan Poll shows that the ALP has increased its election-winning lead over the Liberal-National Coalition in Victoria. The ALP is now on 60% (up 2% points since August) on a two-party preferred basis, well ahead of the L-NP on 40% (down 2% points) less than two months before the State Election. If a State Election were held today the ALP would win easily. The ALP’s primary vote is now 42% (up 5.5% points since August) and has now moved even further ahead of the L-NP on 28% (down 1% point). Despite the increase in support for the ALP, support for both major parties has dropped since the 2018 State Election. Meanwhile, support for the minor parties is up significantly since 2018, mirroring the trend seen at the recent Federal Election when 34.1% of Victorians voted for a minor party. Overall, nearly a third of Victorians (30%) say they will vote for a minor party or independent in the State Election in November. The Greens attract the most support from these voters at 14.5% (up 0.5% points since August 2022) and a further 15.5% is spread between an array of minor parties and independents. This Roy Morgan Poll on State voting intention was conducted with a representative cross-section of 1,379 Victorian electors aged 18+ during the month of September.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF VICTORIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Flood crisis: Serious challenges over coming days

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Original article by Rachel Baxendale
The Australian – Page: 3 : 19-Oct-22

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews has stressed that the state’s flood crisis is far from over, with more rain forecast in coming days. Andrews announced additional disaster relief assistance on Tuesday, following a visit to the flood-hit town of Shepparton. Emergency warnings remain in place in Rochester, Shepparton and other towns in the region’s flood zone, while evacuation orders remain in place for residents of towns near the Goulburn River. Evacuation orders have also been issued for Barmah and Lower Moira, while flood-hit Echuca residents are building a massive levee amid expectations that the Murray River will peak within days.

CORPORATES
VICTORIA. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET

Rebel Labor MP drops red shirts bombshell

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Original article by Shannon Deery, Mitch Clarke, Kieran Rooney, Rhiannon Tuffield
Herald Sun – Page: Online : 10-Feb-22

Victoria’s upper house has passed Adem Somyurek’s motion to have Labor’s ‘Red Shirts’ scandal referred to the state’s Ombudsman for further investigation. The motion was passed after Labor MP Kaushaliya Vaghela joined the Opposition and the 12 crossbenchers in voting for a new probe into the $388,000 taxpayer rort. Vaghela is the first Labor MP to ‘cross the floor’ since the party won office in 2014; she is a close ally of Somyurek, and could be expelled by Labor. She says branch-stacking is endemic within Labor, and an investigation into the Socialist Left faction of Premier Daniel Andrews and other groups is needed.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, VICTORIA. OFFICE OF THE OMBUDSMAN, VICTORIA. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET

Andrews targeted on red shirts rort

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Original article by Rachel Baxendale
The Australian – Page: 2 : 9-Feb-22

The Victorian Opposition will support Adem Somyurek’s motion to have Labor’s ‘Red Shirts’ scandal referred to the state’s Ombudsman for further investigation. The motion will also require the support of at least eight crossbenchers. Amongst other things, Somyurek wants the Ombudsman to investigate the role of Premier Daniel Andrews in "designing, propagating and facilitating" the misuse of taxpayers’ funds when he was opposition leader in 2014. Somyurek, who has admitted to being involved in the rort, was expelled by Labor in 2021 following a branch-stacking scandal.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF VICTORIA, VICTORIA. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET, VICTORIA. OFFICE OF THE OMBUDSMAN

Tourists may need to be triple-jabbed: Andrews

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Original article by Lucas Baird, Mark Ludlow
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 9-Feb-22

The Victorian government is at odds with its federal counterpart regarding the vaccination status of international tourists when Australia’s borders reopen on 21 February. The federal government has advised that inbound travellers will only be required to have two COVID-19 vaccine doses. However, Premier Daniel Andrews says the state will require tourists to have a booster shot if the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation recommends that people must have had three doses in order to enter the country. This could lead to international visitors being barred from hospitality, retail and entertainment venues in Victoria, in a new blow for the tourism industry.

CORPORATES
VICTORIA. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN TECHNICAL ADVISORY GROUP ON IMMUNISATION