Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-Dec-16

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence has improved strongly this week driven by rising confidence about personal financial situations and that now is a good time to buy major household items. The improvement in Consumer Confidence is matched by the increase in Roy Morgan November Business Confidence – now at 116.7 – its highest since the Federal Election. Both measures have improved despite the election victory of Donald Trump in the US, which many suggested would cause problems for the global economy. Of course, Trump is not yet in office, so will President Trump stand by his campaign promises or move away from them as President? The major test for Trump is whether he can convince the Federal Reserve not to raise interest rates whilst real unemployment and under-employment in America (well over 20%) is clearly higher than the "unbelievable" figures released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showing US unemployment of only 4.6% in November. In addition, Trump’s stance on US free-trade "deals" will be particularly important to the Australian economy which has benefited from free-trade agreements with important trading partners like China, Japan and South Korea. If Trump increases trade barriers with important Australian trading partners this will obviously impact on Australian Business Confidence which so far has been steady since the Trump victory.

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