O75 Public Administration

Victorian State Voting Intention: Greens on track to retain Inner Melbourne electorates of Brunswick, Melbourne and Richmond

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Sep-26

There has been much speculation about whether the Greens will be able to hold the three Inner Melbourne electorates of Brunswick, Melbourne and Richmond at this year’s Victorian State Election on 28 November. Special Roy Morgan analysis of State voting trends in these seats shows that the Greens’ State Vote is holding up at an average of 41% in these electorates, clearly ahead of the ALP on 35%. Support for the Liberals is at just 14%, while only 2% of electors support One Nation, and 1% support a Teal Independent. Another 7% support Other Parties or other Independents, according to interviewing with 643 electors in the three electorates in the 12 months to August 2026. It is important to note that there has been no sign of a swing to One Nation in these seats in the last few months.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF VICTORIA, ONE NATION PARTY

Australian real unemployment up 0.1% to 11.7%, with workforce and employment both marginally contracting

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Sep-26

In August 2026, Australian ‘real unemployment’ rose by 15,000 to 1,848,000 (11.7% of the workforce, up 0.1%), and under-employment increased by 50,000 to 1,445,000 (up 0.3% to 9.1%). In total, 3.29 million Australians (20.8% of the workforce, up 0.4%) were either unemployed or under-employed in August. Roy Morgan estimates the overall workforce size (which adds together the employed and unemployed) at 15,804,000 in August, down 9,000 on a month ago, and representing 67.3% (down 0.1%) of Australians aged 14+. Overall employment was down 24,000 to 13,956,000 in August. The decrease was driven by a fall in full-time employment (down 81,000 to 9,012,000), and equivalent to 64.6% of employed Australians. In contrast, part-time employment was up 57,000 to 4,944,000 (equivalent to 35.4% of employed Australians). The August Roy Morgan Unemployment estimates were obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section of people aged 14+.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 2pts to 73.9 as confidence about personal finances increases

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Sep-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 2pts to 73.9 in the week to 13 September; Consumer Confidence is still 12pts lower than a year ago (85.3), but 1.5pts above the 2026 weekly average of 72.4. Analysis by State shows that Consumer Confidence has increased in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, while it is down in Queensland for a second straight week and unchanged in Western Australia. Now 17% of Australians (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 51% (down 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 23% (up 1ppt) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 40% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 8% (up 3ppts) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 41% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 19% (up 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 43% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

One Nation support is strongest among electors born in South Africa and Italy and weakest among electors born in Asia

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Sep-26

New Roy Morgan analysis into the voting intentions of electors by country/region of birth shows that Australian electors born in South Africa (36% supporting One Nation), Italy (30%), and Mainland Europe as a whole (29%) are significantly more likely to vote for One Nation than the average elector (24%), according to interviewing conducted with a representative cross-section of 26,418 electors during the first seven months of 2026. In contrast, electors born in Mainland China (5% support One Nation), Nepal (6%), Pakistan, Vietnam and Sri Lanka (all 7%), India (8%), the US and Canada (9%), Asia (9%), Malaysia (10%), Africa – not including South Africa (11%) and Central and South America (12%), the Philippines (16%), and the Middle East (17%) are all far less likely to vote for One Nation than the average Australian. Voters born in Australia (25% support One Nation), the UK (23%) and New Zealand (24%) were not significantly different to the average elector (24%) when it came to how likely they were to support One Nation.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, ONE NATION PARTY

Green goal shattered as Bowen faces COP heat

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Original article by Perry Williams, Richard Ferguson
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 16-Sep-26

Modelling suggests that renewables will account for just 53 per cent of Australia’s electricity generation by 2030, well below the federal government’s target of 82 per cent. This projection is based on the number of renewable energy projects that were being built at the end of June; the modelling shows that although sufficient renewable energy and battery-storage projects have been proposed to reach the 2030 target, not enough of them will be completed by this date. Meanwhile, Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen’s Turkish counterpart and COP31 president Murat Kurum says his nation will make final decisions regarding the climate summit. Kurum says Bowen is only the president of negotiations.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY, THE ENVIRONMENT AND WATER

National tax grab up 60pc since Covid

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Original article by Matthew Cranston, David Tanner
The Australian – Page: 4 : 9-Sep-26

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the combined tax revenue of the nation’s federal, state and local governments has risen to $893bn a year. This is 61 per cent higher than at the onset of the pandemic, including growth of seven per cent in 2025-26. Stamp duty revenue has increased by 112 per cent over the last six years, while personal income tax revenue is up 63.8 per cent and the corporate tax take has risen by 70 per cent. Corinna Economic Advisory economist Saul Eslake notes that Australia has recorded GDP growth just 47 per cent over the same period.

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AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, CORINNA ECONOMIC ADVISORY PTY LTD

Audit office to take a look after Labor accused of sports rorts pork-barrelling

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Original article by Rob Harris, Paul Sakkal
The Age – Page: Online : 9-Sep-26

The Australian National Audit Office will examine the allocation of funding via the federal government’s Major and Local Community Infrastructure Program. Auditor-General Caralee McLiesh says it will then decide whether to undertake a full audit of the "invitation-only" $560m scheme, which was established prior to the 2025 federal election with the aim of funding community projects. Analysis by the Centre for Public Integrity has found that 73.2 per cent of the program’s funding was allocated to safe Labor seats and marginal electorates that Labor wanted to win. It has also been revealed that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese failed to declare an honorary membership of the Marrickville Golf Club on his parliamentary register of interests; the club was promised a $6m grant via the infrastructure program. The ANAO will also decide whether to audit a $170m government program for multicultural communities; about 85 per cent of funding was allocated to Labor-held seats.

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AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL AUDIT OFFICE, AUSTRALIA. OFFICE OF THE AUDITOR-GENERAL, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 3pts to 71.9 in early September, lowest rating since late July

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Sep-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3pts to 71.9 in the week to 6 September; it was the second straight weekly fall after the ABS announced higher-than-expected official inflation for July. Consumer Confidence is now 17.4pts lower than a year ago (89.3), and 0.5pts below the 2026 weekly average of 72.4. Analysis by State shows that Consumer Confidence has decreased in New South Wales, Victoria, and Western Australia for a second straight week, while it is down in Queensland but up slightly in South Australia. Now just 14% of Australians (down 4ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 54% (up 4ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 22% (down 1ppt) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 41% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 5% (down 2ppts) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 39% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, only 16% (down 4ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 41% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence up 3.1pts to 79.1; driven by a jump of 16.7pts in Victoria after Premier Allan resigns

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Sep-26

In August 2026, Roy Morgan Business Confidence increased by 3.1 points to 79.1; it was a record fifth straight month below the mark of 80, and just above the all-time record low reached in July. Business Confidence is down 19.5 points from a year ago; it fell in five out of the six States, and was below 80 in four States. The surprising exception was Victoria, with Business Confidence of 92.4pts in August – just three months before the State Election, and virtually unchanged on a year ago (up 0.2pts). Meanwhile, 27.2% (up 8.5ppts) of respondents say their business is ‘better off’ financially than a year ago, while 45.3% (down 3ppts) say the business is ‘worse off’. Only 33.2% (up 4.1ppts) of respondents expect the business to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 31.8% (down 1ppt) expect the business to be ‘worse off’. Some 31.8% (up 6.3ppts) of respondents say the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest’ in growing the business, while 48.2% (up 0.2ppts) say the next 12 months will be a ‘bad time to invest’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Japan-China the ultimate flashpoint from Xi’s Taiwan ambitions

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Original article by Joe Kelly, Dennis Shanahan
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 9-Sep-26

China’s President Xi Jinping has repeatedly made it clear that the reunification of Taiwan is a priority. However, former federal bureaucrat Michael Thawley says the key issue for both Australia and the US is not whether China will invade Taiwan but whether China will attack Japan if the latter decides to support Taiwan in the event of a conflict. Thawley was Australia’s ambassador to the US at the time of the 11 September terrorist attacks in 2001. Tom Schieffer, who was America’s ambassador to Australia at the time, says the two nations must prepare for an even more aggressive China. He adds that the AUKUS defence alliance will change the "strategic balance" in the Pacific region.

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