O75 Public Administration

Victorian State Voting Intention: Victoria’s Upper House is evenly split between L-NP/One Nation (18 seats) and ALP/Greens (18 seats) with four seats undecided

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Oct-26

The race to secure a majority of seats in Victoria’s Upper House is evenly poised with the L-NP Coalition/One Nation set to secure 18 seats, level with the ALP/Greens (18 seats); the remaining four seats are undecided. This special Roy Morgan survey was conducted over the three months from July to September, with a representative Victoria-wide cross-section of 2,845 electors and an average of around 360 electors in each of the state’s eight Upper House regions. This interviewing period included the resignation of former Premier Jacinta Allan on 28 July, the swearing in of Ben Carroll as the new Premier on the same day, One Nation’s announcement of Warren Pickering as its Victorian leader on 3 August, and revelations about Pickering’s past. This is a closer result than an earlier SMS Roy Morgan Poll conducted in early August, which showed the L-NP Coalition and One Nation securing a majority of 21 seats in Victoria’s Upper House. The changed result is driven by an improved performance from the Greens in recent months.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED,{STORE}MORGAN POLL,{STORE}AUSTRALIAN GREENS,{STORE}AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY,{STORE}LIBERAL PARTY OF VICTORIA,{STORE}ONE NATION PARTY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 67.7 in mid-October

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Oct-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 67.7 in the week to 18 October. However, Consumer Confidence is now 16.3pts lower than a year ago (84), and 4.3pts below the 2026 weekly average of 72.0. Analysis by State shows that Consumer Confidence has fallen in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, and increased slightly in Queensland and Western Australia. Now 15% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 56% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 20% (up 1ppt) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 44% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 5% (unchanged) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 49% (up 4ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 17% (up 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 44% (down 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED,{STORE}AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Charges laid against man accused of attacking Federal MP Helen Haines

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Original article by Shelby Brooks
The Age – Page: Online : 21-Oct-26

The 43-year-old man who was allegedly responsible for the vehicular attack on independent federal MP Helen Haines will face three charges when he appears before the Wangaratta Magistrates’ Court today. Brendan Nugent has been charged with dangerous driving causing injury, intentionally causing injury and causing harm to a Commonwealth public official. Police allege that the incident was a targeted attack; it is believed that they were not able to interview Nugent on Monday night because he was still under the influence of drugs or alcohol. Haines sustained life-changing injuries and remains in a critical condition; she has lost one leg, and surgeons are trying to save her other leg.

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Mortgage burden surges to highest in three decades

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Original article by Madeleine Bower
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 14-Oct-26

New data shows that the proportion of household income nationwide that is spent on mortgage repayments is at or close to its highest level in more than three decades. The figures show that mortgage repayments accounted for nearly 31 per cent of household income in NSW during June, and more than 28 per cent for Queensland residents and about 22 per cent for homeowners in Victoria. The data compiled by the NSW Treasury, and is based on figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Cotality and the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey.

CORPORATES
NEW SOUTH WALES. THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, COTALITY

ALP offers 9pc pay rise for public servants

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 4 : 14-Oct-26

The Community & Public Sector Union recently called for Australia’s federal public servants to receive a pay rise of 15 per cent over three years. However, the Australian Public Service’s chief negotiator Alison Stott has announced the federal government’s preliminary pay offer of nine per cent over three years; it comprises annual pay rises of 3.2 per cent in 2027, three per cent in 2028 and 2.8 per cent in the following year. Stott adds that about 83 per cent of eligible public servants will receive pay rises of more than nine per cent; she notes that some lower-paid employees will receive extra wage increases, while others will earn more as they progress through their salary range.

CORPORATES
COMMUNITY AND PUBLIC SECTOR UNION, AUSTRALIAN PUBLIC SERVICE COMMISSION

Trust issues: Chalmers faces fury over tax changes that could cost Aussies $13.3bn

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Original article by Ellen Ransley
Herald Sun – Page: Online : 14-Oct-26

The federal government’s legislation to establish a new minimum 30 per cent tax on discretionary trusts will be introduced to parliament today. The proposed reforms are aimed at encouraging trusts to restructure as companies or switch from being a discretionary trust to a fixed trust, although both options would expose them to stamp duty and significant restructuring fees. Meanwhile, analysis by Wilson Asset Management suggests that it would cost families and small businesses beween $8bn and $13.3bn in total to receive advice or restructure in response to the reforms; chairman Geoff Wilson notes that the reform are forecast to raise just $4.5bn over five years.

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WILSON ASSET MANAGEMENT

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 0.9pts to 68, small recovery after three weeks of falls

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Oct-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 0.9pts to 68 in the week to 11 October, recovering slightly after falling by 6.8pts over the previous three weeks. However, Consumer Confidence is now 15pts lower than a year ago (83), and 4.1pts below the 2026 weekly average of 72.1. Analysis by State shows that Consumer Confidence has increased in New South Wales and Victoria, fallen in Queensland and Western Australia, and is virtually unchanged in South Australia. Now 15% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 55% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 19% (down 1ppt) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 42% (down 3ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 5% (unchanged) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 45% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, just 14% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 47% (also unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

IMF urges Chalmers to get serious on debt and deficit

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Original article by Thomas Henry
The Australian – Page: 4 : 14-Oct-26

The International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook report has downgraded Australia’s economic growth forecast to just 1.6 per cent in 2027. The IMF now expects Australia’s unemployment rate to reach a high of 4.7 per cent in 2027, compared with its previous forecast in April that the jobless rate would peak at 4.3 per cent. However, the IMF now expects inflation to fall from a high 3.9 per cent in 2026 to 3.1 per cent next year. Meanwhile, the IMF says governments in Australia and worldwide must prioritise budget repair and reducing public debt.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Australian real unemployment drops 1.1% to 10.6%, driven by an increase in employment and a decline in the workforce

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Oct-26

In September 2026, Australian ‘real unemployment’ fell 1.1% to 10.6% (down 181,000 to 1,667,000); this is the lowest since April. In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.37 million Australians (8.8% of the workforce, down 0.3%) were under-employed, down 71,000. In total, 3.04 million Australians (19.4% of the workforce, down 1.4%) were either unemployed or under-employed in September. Meanwhile, overall employment increased by 49,000 to 14,005,000 in September; the increase was driven by a rise in part-time employment (up 102,000 to 5,046,000, and equivalent to 36% of employed Australians). In contrast, full-time employment was down 53,000 to 8,959,000 (equivalent to 64% of employed Australians). Roy Morgan estimates the overall workforce size (which adds together the employed and unemployed) at 15,672,000 in September, down 132,000 on a month ago, and representing 66.6% (down 0.7%) of Australians aged 14+. The September Roy Morgan Unemployment estimates were obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section of people aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll: In September National-led Government increases lead over Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition (52% vs. 41.5%)

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-Oct-26

Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for September 2026 shows that support for the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) is up 3% to 52%, increasing its clear lead over the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition (virtually unchanged at 41.5%). This is the largest lead for the National-led Government since September 2024. Amongst the Government support for National was unchanged at 31%, support for ACT was up 0.5% to 11%, and support for New Zealand First was up 2.5% to 10%. For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour was down 0.5% to 23.5%, support for the Greens was up 0.5% to 16%, and support for the Maori Party rose 0.5% to 2%. A further 6.5% (down 3.5%) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. The survey results for September would lead to the National-led Government winning 62 seats (down six seats from the election) and the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition would win 50 seats (down five seats). This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 859 electors from 31 August to 27 September. Meanwhile, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating rose 4 points to 85.5 in September.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, NATIONAL PARTY OF NEW ZEALAND, ACT NEW ZEALAND, NEW ZEALAND FIRST PARTY, LABOUR PARTY (NEW ZEALAND), GREEN PARTY OF AOTEAROA NEW ZEALAND, THE MAORI PARTY, OPPORTUNITY PARTY