The last face-to-face Roy Morgan Poll before the election shows the ALP regaining the initiative and pulling away from the L-NP with an election winning two-party preferred lead: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48%.

The increase for the ALP came through an increased primary vote at the expense of the Greens according to the final face-to-face Roy Morgan Poll of the Federal Election and indicates the chances of Australia electing a hung Parliament this weekend have diminished.

Primary Voting Intention

Primary support for the L-NP was unchanged at 38.5% this week but support for the ALP increased by 1.5% to 35.5%. The ALP gained support from the Greens, down 1% to 10%.

Support for One Nation was unchanged at 4% and support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party (UAP) was unchanged at 3.5%. Support for Independents/Others is down marginally by 0.5% to 8.5%.

In a worrying sign for the L-NP Government the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has dropped 6pts to 93 this week with 44.5% of electors (up 3.5%) saying Australia is heading in the ‘wrong direction’ and only 37.5% (down 2.5%) saying Australia is heading in the ‘right direction’.

Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan says:

“The ALP campaign launch last week with a message of unity has helped provide a ‘boost’ in ALP support with under a week to go until the Federal Election. The ALP 52% now holds an election winning lead over the L-NP 48% on a two-party preferred basis.

“In addition Bill Shorten’s good week came as many Australians felt sympathy for Shorten after he described the struggles his mother had endured to undertake her dream of completing a law degree. A front-page headline in Sydney’s Daily Telegraph which sought to attack Shorten for drawing on his mother’s story only served to highlight his mother’s achievements to a wider audience.

“Shorten also had two successful leadership debates with Prime Minister Scott Morrison including a quick-witted put-down of Morrison as a ‘classic space invader’ during the second leader’s debate and a solid performance in the third, and final, leader’s debate last Wednesday.

“In calculating the two-party preferred support the Roy Morgan Poll uses respondent’s stated preferences. While Greens supporters strongly preferences the ALP, other parties stated preferences are dividing fairly evenly between the ALP and L-NP and as many as one-in-four electors still haven’t made their mind up.

“However, most Australians believe the ALP will win the election with many polls for months showing the ALP well ahead of the Government. But will all the polls be proven wrong again like with the US Presidential Election between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016? Most people believed Clinton would win and this belief was reflected by most of the American polls at the time.”

Electors were asked: “At the Federal election for the House of Representatives on May 18 – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

This final Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Roy Morgan Government Confidence was conducted via face-to-face interviewing with a representative cross-section of 1,265 Australian electors aged 18+ concluding on the weekend. 5% of electors can’t say who they support.

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