Original article by Gary Morgan, Michele Levine, Julian McCrann
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Nov-23

The Victorian ALP won the State by-election in Mulgrave easily on the weekend after Liberal Party candidate Courtney Mann managed to gain only a 4.4% swing on primary votes compared to last year’s State Election result. In addition, independent candidate Ian Cook gained only a small primary vote swing of 0.9% while there were also gains for several other minor party and independent candidates. On a two-party preferred basis, the swing away from the ALP was only 4.6%. ALP candidate Eden Foster secured 56.2% of the two-party preferred vote compared to 43.8% for Independent candidate Ian Cook. A yet to be calculated preference distribution between the Liberal and ALP candidates is likely to show a similar result between the two major parties. (The Poll Bludger has estimated the two-party preferred result between the two major parties will be ALP: 56.5% cf. LIB 43.5% – a swing of only 3.7% to the Liberals). Although Liberal Leader John Pesutto claimed on the night that the result "sent Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan a strong message" in fact the result underlined how far in front the ALP Government is. History shows that by-elections generally provide a strong swing to the Opposition, and particularly when a popular local member – like former Premier Daniel Andrews – resigns and is replaced.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF VICTORIA