Author: roymorgansocial

Labor factions split over Israeli President’s visit

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Original article by Damon JohnsonSarah Ison
The Australian – Page: 2 : 29-Jan-26

There is growing internal division within the federal government over the official visit of Israel’s President Isaac Herzog, who is scheduled to arrive in Australia on 8 February. Two rival factions within the Australian Labor Party are at odds regarding his visit. The Jewish Labor faction has urged all of the party’s MPs to support the visit, describing Herzog as a "bridge-builder". However, the Labor Friends of Palestine faction has responded by urging the government to block Herzog’s visit, contending that he fails the character test for a visa. Herzog’s visit is expected to be targeted by supporters of Palestine.

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AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

PM to give Timor billions in gas revenue to counter China

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Original article by Michael ReadAngela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 29-Jan-26

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese arrived in Dili for an official vist to Timor-Leste on Wednesday. Albanese and his counterpart Xanana Gusmao signed a joint declaration committing to further economic, defence and cultural ties, while Albanese announced that Australia will establish an infrastructure fund for Timor-Leste; it will funded using Australia’s share of revenue from the Woodside Energy-led Greater Sunrise gas project in the Timor Sea.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINETEAST TIMOR. OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTERWOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED – ASX WDS

Liberal elders step in as Ley ignored

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Original article by Greg BrownLachlan Leeming
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 29-Jan-26

Liberal MPs Andrew Hastie and Angus Taylor are expected to meet in Melbourne today to negotiate a deal to put forward a single candidate from the party’s conservative faction to challenge Opposotion leader Sussan Ley. However, a leadership spill is considered unlikly when parliament resumes next week, given that the majority of the Liberals’ moderates have expressed support for Ley. Meanwhile, Nationals leader David Littleproud has refuted suggestions that the party rebuffed Ley’s request for the two leaders to meet in a bid to reunite the Coalition. Littleproud has indicated that he is prepared to hold talks with Ley after the Nationals have dealt with their own spill motion; the motion to be put forward by Queensland MP Colin Boyce is not expected to gain much traction among his colleagues.

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LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIANATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Public service forecast has $11.8b shortfall

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Original article by Luke Kinsella
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 29-Jan-26

The federal government had forecast in its March 2025 budget that the public service wages bill will remain steady at about $30bn annually over the next four years. However, analysis of the independent Parliamentary Budget Office’s costing suggest that government spending will rise by $11.8bn over the next four years if the number of public servants remains at the current level of about 213,000. The analysis also indicates that the government would need to reduce the public service headcount by 28,000 over the next four years in order to achieve its budget forecast.

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AUSTRALIA. PARLIAMENTARY BUDGET OFFICE

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence jumps 4.7pts to 84.0 in the lead-in to the Australia Day long weekend

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Jan-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 4.7pts to 84.0 in the week to 25 January; however, it is still 2pts lower than a year ago (86.0), and 2.3pts below the 2025 weekly average of 86.3. Now 20% of Australians (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 39% (down 6ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since May 2022). Looking forward, 25% (unchanged) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 34% (also unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 9% (up 3ppts) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 30% (down 4ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 23% (up 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 37% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITEDAUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Chalmers’ hard landing hits home

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Original article by Thomas HenryMatthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 29-Jan-26

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the rise in the inflation rate in the December quarter was "difficult and unwelcome, but not surprising". He has also denied that increased government spending has contributed to the rise in inflation. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the annnual headline inflation rate rose from 3.2 per cent to 3.7 per cent, with the Reserve Bank’s preferred measure of underlying inflation rising to 3.4 per cent. The data shows that housing costs rose by 5.5 per cent annually, while food inflation increased by 3.4 per cent. Financial markets and many economists now expect the Reserve Bank to increase the cash rate in February.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINETAUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICSRESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Chinese envoy warns of trade-ties risk over forced Darwin Port sale

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 29-Jan-26

China’s ambassador to Australia, Xiao Qia, has used his annual press conference in Canberra to warn of likely repercussions if the federal government forces Landbridge to relinquish its 99-year lease on the Port of Darwin. He argued that Beijing has an obligation to protect the legitimate overseas interests of Chinese companies, and notes that Landbridge has invested significantly in the port since being granted the lease in 2015. Xiao indicated that future Chinese investment in Australia could be affected if Landbridge is required to sell its lease. The company is privately owned, but a parliamentary inquiry in 2020 concluded that it has extensive links to both the Chinese Communist Party and the People’s Liberation Army.

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PORT OF DARWINLANDBRIDGE GROUP COMPANY LIMITEDCOMMUNIST PARTY (CHINA)PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY OF CHINA

Miner stares down China power grab

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Original article by Colin Packham
The Australian – Page: 13 & 14 : 29-Jan-26

Northern Minerals’ Browns Range heavy rare earths project has emerged as a key element in efforts by Australia and the US to reduce China’s dominance of the sector. However, Northern Minerals is under renewed scrutiny over Chinese influence over its board of directors. Beijing-based Vastness Investment Group has asked Northern Minerals to convene a general meeting, with the aim of removing chairman Adam Handley from its board. Vastness has a 7.7 per cent stake in Northern Minerals; the federal government has previously directed several other Chinese companies to divest their stakes in Northern Minerals on national interest grounds.

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NORTHERN MINERALS LIMITED – ASX NTUVASTNESS INVESTMENT GROUP LIMITED

Big deals put bourse at risk of shrinking

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 : 29-Jan-26

MST analyst Hasan Tevfik says that several big merger proposals mean that the Australian sharemarket is risk of ‘de-equitising’ in 2026 . This occurs when the value of shares removed from the market via buybacks, takeovers and de-listings exceeds new capital raised by listed companies and via IPOs; this has not happened since 2005, when News Corporation moved its primary listing from the ASX to New York. BlueScope Steel and Qube Holdings are among the companies that are currently the subject of takeover bids, while Tevfik notes that the ASX’s equitisation would take a big hit if Rio Tinto acquires Glencore and opts to scrap its dual listing in Australia.

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MST MARQUEEBLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED – ASX BSLQUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX QUBRIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIOGLENCORE PLC

Risk of mortgage stress drops to lowest for three years, but rising inflation poses a risk of interest rates heading up in 2026

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Jan-26

New research from Roy Morgan shows that 24.5% of mortgage holders were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to December 2025, down 3.4% points from August. This is the lowest proportion of mortgage holders ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ since January 2023. The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has increased by 380,000 since May 2022, when the Reserve Bank of Australia began a cycle of interest rate increases. Meanwhile, the number of Australians considered to be ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress is now numbered at 830,000 (17.1% of mortgage holders); this is just above the long-term average over the last two decades of 16.3%. These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with over 60,000 Australians each year, including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITEDRESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA