Author: roymorgansocial

Rio Tinto backs China on ETS

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Original article by Angus Grigg, Ben Potter, Lisa Murray
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 4-Oct-17

Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg says China’s plans to implement an emissions trading scheme before the end of 2017 will not affect the Australian Government’s stance on climate policy and emissions trading. Rio Tinto’s head of environment and climate change, Matthew Bateson, has welcomed China’s announcement. He notes that it would send a "strong message" to other nations if China takes the lead on climate change, adding that the world is moving away from coal as a source of power.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, AUSTRALIA. OFFICE OF THE CHIEF SCIENTIST, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, GLENCORE PLC

Debt binge stifles jobs and growth: IMF

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 4-Oct-17

The International Monetary Fund has warned that policies which encourage consumers to increase their debt in the near-term have a negative effect on economic growth in the longer term. The IMF’s modelling concludes that a five per cent increase in the household debt-to-GDP ratio results in a 1.25 per cent fall in real GDP three years later. Australia’s household debt-to-income ratio now exceeds 190 per cent.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Libs may back gold royalty rise

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Original article by Andrew Burrell
The Australian – Page: 17 & 20 : 4-Oct-17

The Western Australian Government will require the Liberal Party’s support to increase the gold royalty from 2.5 per cent to 3.75 per cent. Opposition Leader Mike Nahan says the gold industry will need to present a strong case to persuade him to reject the royalty hike. He adds that the Liberal Party would be reluctant to block a money bill. Newcrest Mining CEO Sandeep Biswas is among the industry executives to have lobbied both major political parties.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA, WESTERN AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF TREASURY AND FINANCE, NEWCREST MINING LIMITED – ASX NCM, THE CHAMBER OF MINERALS AND ENERGY OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA INCORPORATED

Push for stronger better-off work test

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 7 : 4-Oct-17

The report of a Senate committee that has been examining the issue of penalty rates has recommended some "fine-tuning" of the Fair Work Act’s "better-off-overall test" to ensure that workers’ rights are protected. The report is also believed to have concluded that workers should be entitled to trade-off weekend penalty rates in return for higher weekday pay rate in enterprise agreement negotiations, but only if they will be better off overall. The report’s other recommendations include legislative action to overturn the Fair Work Commission’s ruling on Sunday penalty rates.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence Rating edges down again to 113.4

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Oct-17

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence slipped 0.6% to 113.4 in the week ended 1 October 2017. The detail was mixed; sentiment towards economic conditions improved, but this was more than offset by a fall in households’ views of their own finances. Consumers were more optimistic about both current and future economic conditions (up 2.5% and 2.0% respectively). Views towards current economic conditions have improved since the low point in May; however, sentiment towards both current and future conditions remains below long-run averages. Households’ views towards both current and future financial conditions fell 1.6%. Still, both sub-indices are showing some resilience and remain above their long- term averages.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Ratings fail to capture full picture of Grand Final viewership

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Oct-17

Two Roy Morgan Snap SMS surveys taken after the weekend’s AFL and NRL Grand Finals show that millions more Australians watched the two showpiece events than were captured by conventional "5 City Metro’ ratings figures. A Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey taken on Sunday showed that 8.4 million Australians aged 18+ (44.5%) watched the AFL Grand Final, which is much higher than suggested by the official Channel 7 "5 City Metro" ratings of 2.7 million. A further Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey taken on Monday showed that 6.5 million Australians aged 18+ (34.5%) watched the NRL Grand Final; again, this is much higher than suggested by the official Channel 9 "5 City Metro" ratings of 2.3 million. Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan says the good news for Grand Final advertisers and sponsors is that millions of Australians watched the games on TV outside the traditional "5 City Metro" markets, and millions more watched the games at a friend’s house, in a pub or hotel, at the ground or streaming via an app or website.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN FOOTBALL LEAGUE, NATIONAL RUGBY LEAGUE, SEVEN NETWORK LIMITED, NINE NETWORK AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Govt backs GST penalty for gas ban states

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 4-Oct-17

The Productivity Commission’s review of the system for distributing goods and services tax revenue is expected to recommend penalising states that fail to develop their gas reserves. The Commonwealth Grants Commission recently made a similar recommendation. Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg says it does not seem to be in Australia’s long-term interests for states that fail to develop gas reserves to be financially rewarded while states such as Western Australia are penalised.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION, AUSTRALIA. COMMONWEALTH GRANTS COMMISSION, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, SHELL COMPANY OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED

‘It’s sunk in’: Toyota’s Altona plant grinds to a halt

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Original article by Nick Toscano
The Age – Page: 21 : 4-Oct-17

The closure of Toyota’s car plant in Victoria will result in the loss of 2,600 direct jobs. However, government modelling shows that component suppliers will shed about 3,000 jobs as a result of Toyota’s decision to end local manufacturing. At least 16 suppliers expect to cease trading, while 25 intend to reduce their workforce. Dave Smith of the Australian Manufacturing Workers’ Union notes that about 50 per cent of Ford workers have not secured full-time employment 12 months after Ford ceased local manufacturing. Holden’s plant in Adelaide will close later in the month.

CORPORATES
TOYOTA MOTOR CORPORATION AUSTRALIA LIMITED, FORD MOTOR COMPANY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, GM HOLDEN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN MANUFACTURING WORKERS’ UNION, MITSUBISHI MOTORS AUSTRALIA LIMITED, VICTORIA. DEPT OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, JOBS, TRANSPORT AND RESOURCES, VICTORIAN AUTOMOBILE CHAMBER OF COMMERCE

Questions over QBE’s plan for $1b buyback

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Original article by Alice Uribe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 4-Oct-17

QBE Insurance Group has increased its provision for natural disaster claims in 2017 to $US1.75bn ($A2.24bn), in the wake of a series of such events in Australia and abroad. The insurer has advised that this will reduce its pre-tax earnings by about $US600m. David Ellis of Morningstar and David Spotswood of Shaw & Partners suggest that QBE may have to put its share buyback on hold. QBE recently advised that it has repurchased about 5.5 per cent of its stock to date.

CORPORATES
QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED – ASX QBE, MORNINGSTAR PTY LTD, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, FITCH RATINGS LIMITED, INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX IAG, SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUN, FLORIDA CITIZENS PROPERTY INSURANCE CORPORATION, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, S&P GLOBAL RATINGS

Ratings fail to capture full picture of Grand Final viewership

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Two Roy Morgan Snap SMS Surveys taken after the weekend’s AFL and NRL Grand Finals show millions more Australians watched the two showpiece events than were captured by conventional ‘5 City Metro’ ratings figures. 

A Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey taken on Sunday showed 8.4 million Australians aged 18+ (44.5%) watched the AFL Grand Final much higher than suggested by the official Channel 7 ‘5 City Metro’ ratings of 2.7 million. 

A further Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey taken on Monday showed 6.5 million Australians aged 18+ (34.5%) watched the NRL Grand Final again much higher than suggested by the official Channel 9 ‘5 City Metro’ ratings of 2.3 million. 

AFL Grand Final is more popular in Capital Cities 

Of the 8.4 million Australians that watched the AFL Grand Final over 5.7 million (30.5% of Australia’s population aged 18+) primarily watched the game on TV including 3.8 million in the ‘5 City Metro’ area (a 31.5% share of that market) and a further 1.9 million in the rest of Australia (a slightly lower, 28% share of that market). 

An additional 2.7 million Australians (14.2%) watched the game in another way either at a friend’s house, at the local pub/hotel, via an app or website, at the ground, or in another way not covered. These results are broken-down extensively in our AFL viewership release available here. 

NRL Grand Final is more popular (proportionally) in Rural and Regional areas 

Of the 6.5 million Australians that watched the NRL Grand Final nearly 4.9 million (25.5% of Australia’s population aged 18+) primarily watched the game on TV including 2.8 million in the ‘5 City Metro’ area (a 23% share of that market) and a further 2.0 million in the rest of Australia (a higher 30% share of that market). 

An additional 1.6 million Australians (8.4%) watched the game in another way either at a friend’s house, at the local pub/hotel, via an app or website, at the ground, or in another way not covered. These results are broken-down extensively in our NRL viewership release available here. 

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says: 

“Special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Surveys taken after the AFL and NRL Grand Finals reveal far more Australians watched the two events than is revealed by traditional ‘5 City Metro’ aggregated viewing figures. 

“The good news for Grand Final advertisers and sponsors is that millions of Australians watched the games on TV outside the traditional ‘5 City Metro’ markets and millions more again watched the games at a friend’s house, in a pub or hotel, at the ground or streaming via an app or website. 

“The different time slots for the games also skewed the method used to watch the games. The Saturday afternoon ‘timeslot’ of the AFL Grand Final drew bigger audiences at pubs and hotels and watching at friend’s houses compared to the NRL Grand Final held in the evening.  

“Streaming the Saturday afternoon AFL Grand Final via an app or website was more likely for Metro area viewers (81,000) than those in the rest of Australia (18,000). The situation was reversed for the night-time NRL decider with more rural and regional viewers (57,000) of the NRL Grand Final streaming via an app or website compared to their ‘5 City Metro’ area counterparts (37,000). 

“Interestingly, despite the larger audience of the AFL Grand Final than the NRL Grand Final – this difference was entirely a result of larger audiences in Australia’s five largest ‘Capital Cities’. There was little difference in the total viewers in the rest of Australia between the two matches with Roy Morgan showing the NRL Grand Final had a higher number of TV viewers outside the ‘5 City Metro’ area than the AFL Grand Final.” 

Finding No. 7362 – These special snap Roy Morgan SMS surveys were conducted with representative cross-sections of 1,667 Australians aged 18+ on Sunday October 1, 2017 for the AFL Grand Final and 1,626 Australians aged 18+ on Monday October 2, 2017. The respondents were asked “Did you watch the AFL/NRL Grand Final?” If YES: “Did you primarily watch the AFL/NRL Grand Final on TV, App, Website, Friend’s House, Pub/Hotel, At the Ground or Other?” 

Roy Morgan SMS Polling was extremely accurate at both the last two Federal Elections.
Results analysed by Roy Morgan Helix Personas are available on a subscription basis.
www.HelixPersonas.com.au 

 

Questions: 

“Did you watch the AFL/NRL Grand Final?” If YES: “Did you primarily watch the AFL/NRL Grand Final on TV, App, Website, Friend’s House, Pub/Hotel, At the Ground or Other?” 

 

Watching AFL & NRL Grand Finals – The Proportions 

  Australia-wide  Five Capital Cities**  Rest of Australia 
  AFL  NRL  Difference  AFL  NRL  Difference  AFL  NRL  Difference 
  %  %  %  %  %  %  %  %  % 
TV  30.5  25.5  -5  31.5  23  -8.5  28  30  +2 
Friend’s house  5.5  2  -3.5  6  1.5  -4.5  4.5  2.5  -2 
Pub/ Hotel  2  1  -1  2  1  -1  1.5  0.5  -1 
At the Ground  0.5  0.5  –  1  0.5  -0.5  0.5  0.5  – 
App/ Website  0.5  0.5  –  1  0.5  –  0.5  1  +0.5 
Other  1  0.5  -0.5  1.5  0.5  -1  1  0  -1 
No answer  4.5  4.5  –  4.5  5  –  3  4  +1 
TOTAL WATCHED  44.5  34.5  -10.0  46.5  32  -14.5  39  38.5  -0.5 
‘Just the highlights’  9.5  8.5  -1  9.5  9.5  –  9.5  7  -2.5 
Didn’t watch  46  57  +11  44  58.5  +14.5  51.5  54.5  +3 
TOTAL  100  100    100  100    100  100   

**Five Capital Cities: Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide. 


Watching AFL & NRL Grand Finals

  Australia-wide  Five Capital Cities**  Rest of Australia 
  AFL  NRL  Difference  AFL  NRL  Difference  AFL  NRL  Difference 
  ‘000  ‘000  ‘000  ‘000  ‘000  ‘000  ‘000  ‘000  ‘000 
TV  5,748  4,861  -897  3,849*  2,819*  -1,030  1,899  2,042  143 
Friend’s house  1,031  334  -697  731  173  -558  299  161  -138 
Pub/ Hotel  363  167  -196  253  117  -136  109  50  -59 
At the Ground  100  80  -20  85  40  -45  15  40  +25 
App/ Website  99  94  -5  81  37  -44  18  57  +39 
Other  231  87  -144  166  87  -79  65  0  -65 
No answer  867  848  -19  638  586  -52  228  263  +35 
TOTAL WATCHED  8,439  6,472  -1,967  5,810  3,858  -1,952  2,629  2,613  -16 
‘Just the highlights’  1,826  1,649  -177  1,176  1,171  -5  650  479  -171 
Didn’t watch  8,719  10,818  +2,099  5,196  7,152  +1,956  3,523  3,666  +143 
TOTAL  18,939  18,939    12,181  12,181    6,758  6,758   

Total watched according to OzTam measuring the five Capital City Metro audience (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide). 

*Channel 7: AFL Grand Final: 2,680,000 (http://tvtonight.com.au/2017/10/saturday-30-september-2017.html)
cf. Roy Morgan Metro TV viewership of 3,849,000 (A difference of 1,169,000). 

*Channel 9: NRL Grand Final: 2,325,000 (http://tvtonight.com.au/2017/10/sunday-1-october-2017.html)
cf. Roy Morgan Metro TV viewership of2,819,000. (A difference of 494,000).

For further information: 

Contact  Office  Mobile 
Gary Morgan:       +61 3 9224 5213    +61 411 129 094 
Michele Levine:         +61 3 9224 5215    +61 411 129 093