Author: roymorgansocial

Economy’s lost year of stagnation

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 3-Jul-23

KPMG chief economist Brendan Rynne contends Australia is in store for a period of extended economic gloom, brought on by what he states is a "deliberate" policy choice by the Reserve Bank. Modelling by KPMG suggests that unemployment will rise from 3.6 per cent to 4.2 per cent by the close of 2023, before rising steadily up to 4.6 per cent in mid-2024 and reaching a peak of five per cent in early 2025. Corinna Economic Advisory principal Saul Eslake thinks that the RBA might lift interest rates one more time, but that two "would be overdoing it", while he agrees with suggestions that the forecast 715,000 net increase in migration across two years might prevent a technical recession.

CORPORATES
KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CORINNA ECONOMIC ADVISORY

Australian unemployment jumped to 10.3% in June – the highest since January 2023 (10.7%)

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Jul-23

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that the number of Australians who are unemployed rose by 314,000 to 1,572,000 (10.3% of the workforce) in June. However, underemployment fell 50,000 to 1,415,000 (9.3% of the workforce, down 0.5% points). A total of 2.99 million Australians (19.6% of the workforce) were unemployed or underemployed in June, up by 264,000 from May. Meanwhile, employment fell by 72,000 to 13,635,000 in June. The drop was due to a fall in part-time employment (down 167,000 to 4,697,000), while full-time employment was up 94,000 to 8,937,000. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 10.3% for June is almost triple the ABS estimate of 3.6% for May and is closer to the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.0%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Surplus bounty pushes tax take past 24pc

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Original article by Andrew Tillett
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 3-Jul-23

Record revenue from company and personal income taxes has resulted in the federal budget being in surplus by $19bn for the first 11 months of 2022-23, putting it on track for a surplus of around $20bn for the financial year. This compares with Treasury’s forecast of a $4.2bn surplus when the budget was released in early May. Economist Chris Richardson estimates that the tax-to-GDP ratio is currently around 24.2 per cent; it has breached the 24 per cent level for the first time since 2007-08, and Richardson believes that this could become a permanent trend. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has previously stated that he does not feel bound by the former Coalition government’s cap of 23.9 per cent, describing it as "arbitrary".

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Critical minerals exports set to soar past coal

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Original article by Elouise Fowler
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 3-Jul-23

The Department of Industry, Science & Resources has forecast that the value of Australia’s critical minerals exports will top $40bn by 2025. Demand for lithium and copper in particular is expected to be strong as the world transitions to clean energy sources. In contrast, the value of thermal coal exports is forecast to fall to $30bn in 2025, compared with expectations of $64bn for 2023; thermal coal prices rose sharply following the invasion of Ukraine, but are expected to fall back to around pre-invasion levels. Meanwhile, lower demand for steel in China is expected to result in the value of Australia’s iron ore exports falling to $93bn in 2024-25, down from $123bn in 2022-23.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, SCIENCE AND RESOURCES

Shares end year on a high

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Original article by David Rogers
The Weekend Australian – Page: 25 & 39 : 1-Jul-23

The S&P/ASX 200 gained 9.7 per cent during 2022-23, which is well above the average gain of 6.6 per cent over the last decade; it also follows a loss of 10.2 per cent for the previous financial year. The benchmark index rose by 14.5 per cent in 2022-23 on a total return basis, compared with a 6.1 per cent loss in 2021-22. The S&P/ASX 200 information technology index rose by 36 per cent in 2022-23, while the materials sector added 15 per cent. Meanwhile, AMP Capital expects balanced superannuation funds to post a gain of 8-9 per cent for the financial year.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INDEX

WA miners the top performers

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Original article by Eli Greenblat
The Weekend Australian – Page: 25 & 39 : 1-Jul-23

Lithium producer Liontown Resources was the top-performing stock in the S&P/ASX 200 during 2022-23, rising by 168.25 per cent. The mining and resources sector dominated the performance charts, accounting for six of the 10 stocks with the highest returns for the fiscal year; Western Australia-based miners resources stocks in particular delivered strong returns. However, Lake Resources shed 61.78 per cent in 2022-23; other underperformers included The Star Entertainment Group (down 55.05 per cent) and Domino’s Pizza (down 31.72 per cent).

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, LIONTOWN RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX LTR, LAKE RESOURCES NL – ASX LKE, THE STAR ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED – ASX SGR, DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED – ASX DMP

BMW, AGL, Apple, Harris Farm, Qantas, AFR, and more win the 2023 Premium Brand Awards

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Jul-23

According to social scientist Dr Ross Honeywill, Australia is in a two-speed consumer economy, and each speed has a fundamentally different consumer mindset. The ‘fast lane’ is the New Economic Order (NEO) mindset, in which 90% of consumers are ‘big spenders’ who happily spend on frequent, premium experiences. Meanwhile, traditional mindset consumers in the ‘slow lane’ are price-sensitive, reluctant-spending consumers. Roy Morgan’s 2023 Premium Brand rankings focus on the spending of the top 50% of NEO consumers, known as Super NEOs. The Premium Brand rankings are determined in the Roy Morgan Single Source database by analysing the consumption behaviour of Australia’s 2.5 million ‘Super NEOs’ – the top 50 percent of NEOs.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ABC board lays down law on radio fix

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Original article by James Madden
The Australian – Page: 18 : 3-Jul-23

The ABC’s senior management has been urged to take action to address the decline in the audience share of its radio stations. The ratings of both ABC Radio and Radio National have fallen sharply in the last 18 months or so, and an internal advisory group has made a number of proposals aimed at addressing this, including changes to its on-air presenters and an overhaul of internal reporting structures within the public broadcaster. The advisory group’s report was tabled at the ABC’s recent board meeting in Perth.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BROADCASTING CORPORATION, ABC RADIO, RADIO NATIONAL

Virgin first to test Labor’s bargaining laws

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Original article by David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 28-Jun-23

The Australian Licensed Aircraft Engineers’ Association will oppose Virgin Australia Regional Airlines’ application to the Fair Work Commission for an "intractable bargaining" declaration. The ALAEA’s federal secretary Steve Purvinas says the union does not believe that the Virgin Australia subsidiary meets the requirements of the ‘Secure Jobs, Better Pay’ amendments to the Fair Work Act that took effect in early June. VARA commenced enterprise bargaining negotiations with the ALAEA in February 2021.

CORPORATES
VIRGIN AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS LIMITED, VIRGIN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL AIRLINES PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN LICENSED AIRCRAFT ENGINEERS’ ASSOCIATION, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION

PwC spin-off counting on census role

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Original article by Tom Burton
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 28-Jun-23

PwC’s contract to run the 2021 digital census was worth nearly $40m; the firm and its technology partner Amazon Web Services had been regarded as the leading contenders to run the 2026 census prior to the tax leaks scandal. The census work would be undertaken by PwC’s public sector consulting arm, which will be sold to private equity firm Allegro Funds for just $1. Codenamed Bell, the new entity is likely to be subjected to intense scrutiny by the government authorities responsible for awarding the census contract.

CORPORATES
PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS AUSTRALIA (INTERNATIONAL) PTY LTD, AMAZON WEB SERVICES LLC, ALLEGRO FUNDS PTY LTD