Author: roymorgansocial

Real unemployment in June up 1.9% to 10.3%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Jun-23

In June Roy Morgan shows ‘real unemployment’ jumped 1.9% to 10.3% – reversing a series of recent drops. This is the highest ‘real unemployment’ has been since January. In contrast, under-employment was down by 0.5% to 9.3% with fewer people employed part-time in June. Overall though this mean a large rise in combined unemployment and under-employment, up 1.4% to 19.6% of the workforce (2.99 million Australians) – again, this was the highest combined figure since January. These monthly movements take place within the broader context of longer-term trends in the Australian workforce – the total number of people employed or looking for work. The Australian workforce has grown rapidly over the last year. The annual increase in the working aged Australian population hit a record in the year to June 2023 – up by 632,000 to 21.9 million. This surge in the population helped drive the workforce up by 715,000 to over 15.2 million – the second largest annual increase on record. These large increases mean that employment growth has continued over the last year, despite the falls we see in the month of June.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Inflation Expectations increased to 5.9% this week – far higher than May average of 5.2%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Jun-23

In the last week Roy Morgan’s weekly Inflation Expectations is up 0.4% to 5.9% – far higher than the May average of 5.2%. Australians expect inflation of 5.9% annually over the next two years. The monthly Inflation Expectations figure for May of 5.2% was down 0.1% from April, and could be an indicator for today’s ABS May CPI figure. The monthly Inflation Expectations figure for May was the lowest monthly reading since February 2022. However, the latest figures show that the back-to-back decreases in monthly Inflation Expectations in April and May have not been sustained, with weekly Inflation Expectations rising throughout June and now at 5.9%. Looking longer-term, Inflation Expectations have averaged 5.4% so far during 2023 and are down from a monthly high of 6.5% in November 2022 and down significantly from a weekly high of 6.8% in early November. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,000 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade and includes interviews with 5,943 Australians aged 14+ in May.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 2.5pts to 74.9 – biggest weekly increase since the first week of January 2023

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Jun-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 2.5pts to 74.9 in the week to 25 June. However, Consumer Confidence has now spent 17 straight weeks below the mark of 80, the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly rather than a monthly basis in October 2008. Consumer Confidence is now 9.8pts below the same week a year ago (84.7), and 4.1pts below the 2023 weekly average of 79.0. Consumer Confidence was up in NSW and Queensland, but down in Victoria, WA and SA. Now 20% of Australians (up 5ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 55% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 28% (up 1ppt) of Australians now expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 41% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially (the highest figure for this indicator since August 1989). Only 6% (up 1 ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 43% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 53% (also unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Fat budget surplus but brace for crunch

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Original article by Geoff Chambers, Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 28-Jun-23

Treasurer Jim Chalmers is set to announce that the surplus for 2022-23 will be significantly higher than the $4.2bn that was forecast in the budget on 9 May. Chalmers will attribute the better-than-expected budget bottom line to factors such as higher commodity prices and a strong labour market; however, the exact size of the surplus will not be known for several weeks. Chalmers will also advise that the government expects inflation to remain higher for longer than it would like, while economic growth is forecast to slow from 3.25 per cent to 1.5 per cent in 2023-24.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Backlash to ABC cuts grows as artists, authors and performers urge rethink

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Original article by Linda Morris
The Age – Page: Online : 28-Jun-23

Live Performance Australia has written to ABC chair Ita Buttrose urging the public broadcaster to reconsider its decision to disband its stand-alone arts team as part of a restructuring program. The peak body for the live entertainment industry contends that scrapping the two specialist editorial roles will have a "damaging impact" on the coverage of Australian arts and culture. The National Association for the Visual Arts’ executive director Penelope Benton says the move does make sense given that interest in the arts in Australia has never been higher.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BROADCASTING CORPORATION, LIVE PERFORMANCE AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION FOR THE VISUAL ARTS LIMITED

Fortescue sees Iron Bridge slippage push back first delivery

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Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 18 : 28-Jun-23

Fortescue Metals Group achieved the milestone of first production at its Iron Bridge magnetite project in May, and advised at the time that its initial shipment would be made by the end of the 2022-23 financial year. Fortescue has now advised that the first shipment has been pushed back to July. Fiona Hick, the CEO of Fortecue’s mining division, also says the first ore from its Belinga iron ore project in Gabon has been loaded onto a train, and it is on track to deliver the first shipment to customers by the end of 2023.

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FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG

Close to four million Australians now downloading podcasts

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Jun-23

New data from Roy Morgan shows that podcasts are increasingly popular, with over 3.9 million Australians now downloading audio or video podcasts in an average four weeks, up a massive 456,000 (+13.1%) from a year ago. This equates to almost one-in-five Australians (18.3%), up by 1.9% points from a year ago. Mobile phones and tablets are clearly the leading way to download podcasts, used by 3.2 million Australians (15.2%), while around 1.1 million (5.2%) download podcasts via their computer (2.1% use both). Analysis by gender shows little difference, with 1,983,000 men (18.8% of men) downloading podcasts compared to 1,952,000 women (17.9% of women) – both up more than 200,000 on a year ago. Meanwhile, Generation Z (born from 1991-2005) has overtaken the slightly older Millennials (born from 1976-1990) as the largest downloaders of podcasts over the last year. These are the latest results from Roy Morgan Single Source, derived from in-depth online and telephone interviews with around 5,000 Australians each month and over 60,000 each year.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Australian alcohol consumption is higher than it was pre-pandemic driven by increases for wine and RTDs

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Jun-23

New data from Roy Morgan’s Alcohol Consumption Report shows that a total of 13,709,000 Australians (67.6%) aged 18+ consumed alcohol in an average four-week period in the year to March 2023, compared to 13,073,000 (66.3%) in the year to March 2020. The most popular alcohol is wine, which has stretched its lead during the pandemic; the number of Australians drinking wine has increased from 8,096,000 (41.0%) pre-pandemic to 8,898,000 (43.9%) in the 12 months to March 2023. Meanwhile, 5,573,000 (27.5%) Australians now drink spirits, down slightly from 5,671,000 (28.7%) pre-pandemic. However, 6,537,000 (32.2%) Australians now consume beer, down significantly from the 7,413,000 (37.6%) who did so in the 12 months to March 2020 just before the pandemic struck. The standout alcoholic beverages over the course of the pandemic have been ‘Ready-to-drink’ (RTDs) for which consumption has increased from 2,138,000 Australians (10.8%) pre-pandemic to 4,208,000 (20.8%). These findings are from the Roy Morgan Single Source survey, Australia’s most trusted and comprehensive consumer survey, derived from in-depth interviews with over 60,000 Australians each year.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

‘Unemployment is too low’: RBA deputy stirs up union anger

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Original article by Patrick Commins, Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 21-Jun-23

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s deputy governor Michele Bullock says the nation’s unemployment rate will need to rise to 4.5 per cent over the next year if inflation is to be progressively restored to the target range of 2-3 per cent. Bullock adds that failure to bring inflation under control would most likely result in a "deep and long-lasting recession". Her comments have been criticised by union leaders, with CFMEU national secretary Zach Smith saying it is shameful for a top central banker to state that unemployment needs to rise. He contends that tens of thousands of livelihoods would be at risk from such an "irresponsible economic approach", and adds that corporate profits are the main driver of the high inflation rate.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CONSTRUCTION, FORESTRY, MARITIME, MINING AND ENERGY UNION OF AUSTRALIA

B is for broadcast: Rowland’s ABC dig

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Original article by James Madden, Rosie Lewis
The Australian – Page: 3 : 21-Jun-23

The ABC continues to attract scrutiny over a restructuring that includes shifting its focus to a ‘digital-first’ model. The issue was raised in the federal government’s caucus meeting on Tuesday, with Communications Minister Michelle Rowland noting that the ‘B’ in ABC stands for broadcasting. A spokesman for Rowland later clarified her comments, stating that she had told caucus that the ABC has made it clear that broadcasting remains important as it prepares for a future time when most audiences with engage with it via digital channels. The ABC’s restructuring will include the loss of about 120 jobs.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BROADCASTING CORPORATION, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INFRASTRUCTURE, TRANSPORT, REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT, COMMUNICATIONS AND THE ARTS, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY