Author: roymorgansocial

Roy Morgan Business Confidence plunges by 11.1pts (-8.7%) to 117.2 after Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide placed in lockdowns

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Aug-21

In July 2021, Roy Morgan Business Confidence plunged 11.1pts (-8.7%) to 117.2. Despite the fall, Business Confidence is 32.9pts (+39%) higher than a year ago (84.3), and it is 3.3pts above the long-term average of 113.9. Business Confidence has now averaged 123.6 during the first seven months of 2021, the best ever start to a year for the Index. The reading of 117.2 for July is also the highest level of Business Confidence in the mid-Winter month since July 2014 (119.1). Some 59.9% of businesses now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, and 52.3% say the next 12 months is a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for July are based on 1,341 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Inflation Expectations increase to 4.1% in July, highest for nearly 2 years since Oct 2019

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Aug-21

In July 2021, Australians expected inflation of 4.1% annually over the next two years, up 0.1% and the highest Inflation Expectations since October 2019. Inflation Expectations are now up 0.9% points since the pandemic low of 3.2% in August 2020. Inflation Expectations are still 0.6% points below their long-term average of 4.7%, but are now 0.6% points higher than the 2020 monthly average of 3.5% and 0.7% points higher than in July 2020 (3.4%). A look at Inflation Expectations by occupation and employment category compared to a year ago shows increases across the board. Inflation Expectations for employed Australians increased by 0.8% points to 4.0% but still trail those of Australians who are not employed at 4.3%, an increase of 0.6% points from July 2020. Self-employed Australians now have the highest Inflation Expectations of any employment category at 4.4% in July, up 0.9% points since July 202; there has been a similar increase for Australians employed in private industry, with Inflation Expectations of 4.1% (up 0.9% points). However, those in the public service have a different view and their Inflation Expectations have only increased 0.3% points to 3.5%. On a State-based level Inflation Expectations are slightly higher than the national average and are now highest in Queensland and Tasmania at 4.2%.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increases slightly to 101.8 as Melbourne & Adelaide lockdowns end

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Aug-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.1pts to 101.8 on July 31/August 1, after lockdowns in Melbourne and Adelaide ended and Australians were advised of vaccination targets to achieve to avoid future lockdowns. Consumer Confidence is well below the 2021 weekly average of 110.3; however, it remains 13.2 points higher than the same week a year ago (88.6). There were mixed fortunes for Consumer Confidence around the country, with increases in Melbourne and Adelaide, while there was a decline in Sydney after the lockdown was extended for another month. Now 26% (up 1ppt) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 27% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 37% (up 3ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 15% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 11% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 29% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 36% (up 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 32% (down 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Reserve Bank sticks to the plan despite Covid resurgence

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 15 & 20 : 4-Aug-21

The Reserve Bank of Australia has confirmed that it still intends to reduce its weekly bond-buying program from $5bn to $4bn in early September, following its latest monthly board meeting. Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans says the decision was surprising, given that the RBA had consistently reiterated that its quantitative easing program would be guided by factors such as the economic outlook and the COVID-19 pandemic. The central bank has conceded that the economy is likely to contract in the September quarter, due to the impact of lockdowns. The RBA has also reiterated its view that the cash rate will not rise until inflation is ‘sustainably’ within its target range of 2-3 per cent.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Santos could sell PNG gas stake to thwart rival bid: analysts

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Original article by Perry Williams
The Australian – Page: 17 : 4-Aug-21

Santos will have a 42.5 per cent stake in the Papua New Guinea LNG project if its proposed merger with Oil Search proceeds. Tom Allen of UBS has flagged the possibility that Santos could reduce its current stake of 13.5 per cent in the project by 10 per cent; he notes that this would align Santos with its joint venture partners and reduce the risk of that a counterbid for Oil Search will emerge. PNG LNG partners ExxonMobil and Total have been touted as potential bidders for Oil Search.

CORPORATES
SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, EXXONMOBIL CORPORATION, TOTALENERGIES SE

Berejiklian says too soon for road map out of lockdown

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Original article by Luke Cormack, Alexandra Smith
The Sydney Morning Herald – Page: Online : 4-Aug-21

New South Wales has recorded 199 new locally-acquired COVID-19 cases in the last 24 hours, including at least 50 people who were active in the community while they were infectious. Premier Gladys Berejiklian says that although case numbers have plateaued in the last week, it is too soon to know if the current outbreak will worsen. She has also advised of a further delay in releasing a post-lockdown ‘road map’; it was first flagged on 7 July, and the state government had intended to release it on 28 July, the day on which the lockdown of Greater Sydney was extended by four weeks. Meanwhile, Berejiklian will now aim for six million people in NSW to be vaccinated by the end of August. Some 3.9 million doses have been administered to date.

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NEW SOUTH WALES. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET

Updated national Covid plan suggests 80% of Australians could be fully vaccinated by end of 2021

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Original article by Sarah Martin
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 4-Aug-21

The federal government released an updated version of its National COVID Vaccine Campaign Plan on 3 August. Amongst other things, it outlines plans to ramp up the vaccine rollout by operating drive-through vaccination clinics in most states and territories by mid-October. Retail vaccinations hubs are also slated to commence in October, along with workplace vaccination programs. The rollout could also potentially be extended to schools by early December. The revised plan also indicates that 70 per cent of the eligible population could be fully vaccinated by November, potentially rising to 80 per cent by December.

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Vaccine targets essential: Roy Hill

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Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 17 : 4-Aug-21

Roy Hill CEO Gerhard Veldsman addressed the annual Diggers and Dealers conference in Kalgoorlie on 3 August. He warned that the skilled labour shortage in Western Australia will continue while coronavirus-induced interstate travel restrictions remain in place. Veldsman also stressed the need for about 80 per cent of the nation’s population to be vaccinated, arguing that Australia risks falling behind the rest of the world. He added that the national cabinet’s latest four-stage plan to re-open the economy must include firm target dates for each of these stages.

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ROY HILL HOLDINGS PTY LTD, DIGGERS AND DEALERS FORUM

News Corp buys oil information service for $1.56b

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Original article by Miranda Ward
The Australian Financial Review – Page: Online : 4-Aug-21

Global media giant News Corporation has struck a deal to buy Oil Price Information Service, which provides referencing pricing and news and analytics for the energy and renewables sectors. News Corp will pay $US1.15bn ($1.56bn) for OPIS, which will become part of its Dow Jones Professional Information Business. OPIS is forecast to post revenue of around $US129m in the year to 30 November. News Corp has made a number of other acquisitions during 2021.

CORPORATES
NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS, OIL PRICE INFORMATION SERVICE, DOW JONES AND COMPANY

Winners & Losers: Trust & Distrust in a post-COVID world – video presentation by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine & Social Scientist Dr. Ross Honeywill

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Jul-21

The COVID-19 pandemic has thrown an important spotlight on which brands and industries Australians Trust and Distrust with the clear winners being those businesses able to respond quickly and proactively to customers’ needs such as leading supermarkets Woolworths, Coles and ALDI – all clustered near the top of the rankings with high Net Trust Scores while those dealing with high levels of Distrust include Social Media giant Facebook, Telecommunications provider Telstra and media company News Corp. In this one hour long presentation Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine and Social Scientist Dr. Ross Honeywill dissect the drivers of Trust and Distrust across more than 20 industries and highlight what propels the companies performing well with high levels of Trust to the top of the rankings and what mistakes and missteps are made by those companies experiencing high levels of Distrust. It is often thought that the most valuable commodity a company can have is a high level of Trust in the brand, but when one examines the drivers of consumer decision making it is actually Distrust which is a more powerful driver of consumer behaviour. Of course it’s important for a company to have a high level of Trust amongst its customers, but that can be more than cancelled out by a rising level of Distrust. Some recent examples include the ‘Fake News’ scandals that have enveloped Facebook, the accusations of poor treatment and low payment of workers at Amazon, the allegations of sexual harassment at AMP and the destruction of the 46,000 year old Juukan Gorge indigenous heritage site by Rio Tinto – all of which have led to high and rising levels of Distrust in these companies. Although Trust is key to building a brand, Distrust can easily destroy that same hard-won reputation in a far quicker time-frame. To explore the ‘Winners & Losers’ of the COVID-19 pandemic please register and view the full video here:

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED