Author: roymorgansocial

Record bond deal shows confidence in Australia: PM

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Original article by Sarah Turner, Vesna Poljak, Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 17-Apr-20

The Australian Office of Financial Management has revealed that domestic investors accounted for 68.1 per cent of the federal government’s $13bn bond deal. Banks in turn bought more than 50 per cent of the new bonds, while investment managers accounted for 25 per cent of the issuance. Prime Minister Scott Morrison says the strong support for the bond deal demonstrates that investors are confident that Australia will be able to repay its debt.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY. OFFICE OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

LNG exports face $20bn hit as prices crash

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Original article by Perry Williams
The Australian – Page: 13 & 20 : 17-Apr-20

The federal government’s revenue projections for LNG exports in 2020-21 were based on an average crude oil price of $U60 per barrel in 2020. However, the oil price has fallen to around $US27 a barrel; EnergyQuest expects it to average $US30 in the second half of 2020, rising to $US45 in the first half of 2021. The consultancy expects LNG export revenue to fall from $US50bn in 2019-20 to just $US30bn in 2020-21. In contrast, the government had forecast revenue of $US44bn from LNG exports in 2020-21, although this was prior to the coronavirus pandemic and the recent slump in the crude oil price.

CORPORATES
ENERGYQUEST PTY LTD

ABS March unemployment figures are misleading – because second half of March ignored!

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Michele Levine, Julian McCrann
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Apr-20

The ABS yesterday, finally, released their March unemployment estimates – actually the first half of March. The ABS March employment estimates show employment increasing by 6,000 and unemployment virtually unchanged at 5.2%, up only 0.1% from February – both very misleading and should never have been released in their current form. On April 8, 2020 Roy Morgan released accurate real employment and unemployment estimates for the whole of March – pre and post COVID-19 lock-down. Roy Morgan’s unemployment estimate pre the COVID-19 lock-down was 7.3%, essentially unchanged on February. However, Roy Morgan’s late March unemployment estimates showed the Government’s COVID-19 lockdown response resulted in an extra 1.4 million Australians becoming unemployed in a matter of two weeks, leading to unemployment of 2.4 million (16.8%) and under-employment increasing 374,000 to 1.52 million (10.6%) in the second half of March. This means a record high 3.92 million (27.4%) of Australians were either unemployed or under-employed and looking for more work in the second half of March – depression numbers! (Following is a link to full details on Roy Morgan’s March employment and under-employment estimates: http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8363-roy-morgan-unemployment-and-under-employment-march-2020-202004080900)

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Virus shorts electricity demand

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Original article by Perry Williams
The Australian – Page: 13 & 20 : 16-Apr-20

RepuTex has forecast that demand across Australia’s national electricity market will fall by 22.5 per cent in May due to the coronavirus lockdown. The consultancy also warns that wholesale electricity spot prices could fall below $40 per megawatt hour, which in turn could result in high-cost coal-fired power stations operating at a loss. The wholesale spot price has already fallen to around $45/MWh in most states, although RepuTex says this could rise to around $60/MWh in June if lockdown restrictions begin to ease.

CORPORATES
REPUTEX AUSTRALIA PACIFIC PTY LTD

Tourism braces for Virgin blow

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Original article by Lisa Allen
The Australian – Page: 13 & 16 : 16-Apr-20

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has reiterated that Virgin Australia Holdings’ shareholders rather than taxpayers should bail out the struggling airline. However, tourism and travel industry executives have warned against the prospect of Qantas having a monopoly on domestic routes if Virgin collapses. Flight Centre CEO Graham Turner says a two-airline system is essential for the nation, while Webjet MD John Guscic says the demise of Virgin would make it harder for the tourism industry to recover. Meanwhile, new figures show that international tourism arrivals fell by 26 per cent in February.

CORPORATES
VIRGIN AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX VAH, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED – ASX FLT, QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN, WEBJET LIMITED – ASX WEB

IMF jumped the gun with dire forecasts: Frydenberg

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 4 : 16-Apr-20

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has downplayed the International Monetary Fund’s latest economic growth and unemployment forecasts for Australia. He argues that they were made prior to pandemic stimulus measures such as the $130bn JobKeeper scheme. New figures show that more than 838,000 businesses have applied for the wage subsidy to date. The IMF has forecast that the domestic economy will contract by 6.7 per cent in 2020, although Alan Oster of National Australia Bank expects GDP growth to fall by just 4.3 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Hope as recoveries outpace new cases

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Original article by Jill Margo, Edmund Tadros, Tom McIlroy
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 16-Apr-20

The global death toll from the coronavirus has risen to 134,007; more than 2,073,000 people worldwide have been diagnosed with the respiratory illness. There are 6,447 confirmed cases of the coronavirus in Australia, and the nation’s death toll has risen to 63. However, just 47 new cases were reported nationwide on 15 April, while the number of people who have recovered from the virus is estimated to have increased by 90. Experts warn that the rate of infection could rise again, particularly if lockdown measures are relaxed too soon.

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AFP search of journalist’s home illegal

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Original article by Michael Pelly, Andrew Tillett
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 16-Apr-20

Australian Federal Police commissioner Reece Kershaw says News Corp journalist Annika Smethurst could still face criminal charges despite a landmark High Court ruling on the legal validity of a search warrant. The court has unanimously ruled that the warrant used to search her home in June 2019 was invalid as it was too imprecise and "impossibly wide". However, the court narrowly rejected an application for an injunction requiring the AFP to return or destroy data that it seized in the raid.

CORPORATES
NEWS CORP AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, HIGH COURT OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN FEDERAL POLICE

Ex-Fair Work senior official calls for bargaining overhaul

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Original article by David Marin-Guzman, Hannah Wootton
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 2 : 16-Apr-20

A former senior deputy president of the Fair Work Commission warns that strict application of the ‘better off overall test’ is contributing to the decline of enterprise agreements. Jonathan Hamberger, who stepped down from the FWC in late 2019, has praised the flexibility of employers and unions in negotiating changes to industry awards during the coronavirus pandemic, arguing that such flexibility is needed in the enterprise agreement system. Amongst other things, he says the better off overall test should be replaced with the ‘no disadvantage test’.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, ACTU

It’s too little, too late: media lament aid deal

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Original article by Lilly Vitorovich, Leo Shanahan
The Australian – Page: 13 & 16 : 16-Apr-20

The federal government has announced a $91m financial relief package for the media sector, which has been hard hit by the coronavirus pandemic. Amongst other things, the government will suspend content quotas for local drama and children’s programs for the rest of the year, while TV and radio networks will collectively receive $41m in tax rebates for spectrum fees. Regional media companies will also receive financial support totalling $50m. However, industry executives had hoped for a further relaxation of cross-media ownership laws and action to force digital companies to pay for content.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INFRASTRUCTURE, TRANSPORT, REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND COMMUNICATIONS, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, NEWS CORP AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS, TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED, FOXTEL MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN COMMUNITY MEDIA, ELLIOTT NEWSPAPER GROUP PTY LTD, PRIME MEDIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX PRT, HT&E LIMITED – ASX HT1