Author: roymorgansocial

Seven slashes debt, looks to banks’ ad spend

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 20-Feb-19

Seven West Media has posted a 2018-19 interim underlying net profit of $91.8m, which is 7.8 per cent lower than previously. Revenue was 1.5 per cent lower at $797.4m. Seven has scaled back its full-year EBIT growth forecast to no more than five per cent at best. CEO Tim Worner says Seven was affected by the weaker advertising market, but he expects banks and insurers to increase their advertising expenditure in the wake of the Hayne royal commission. He adds that free-to-air TV is a compelling proposition for banks as they seek to rebuild trust in their brands.

CORPORATES
SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY, CCZ EQUITIES PTY LTD, AIRTASKER PTY LTD, HEALTHENGINE PTY LTD, SOCIETYONE AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

House price falls key caveat for Reserve

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Original article by Matthew Cranston, Natasha Gillezeau
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 20-Feb-19

The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s monthly board meeting show that the central bank believes that the cases for an increase or a reduction in the cash rate are "more evenly balanced" now than they had been over the last year. In contrast, the Reserve Bank had stated in December that a rate rise is more likely. The central bank has also noted that dwelling investment is likely to decline more sharply than previously anticipated, and it has given indications that the outlook for house prices may influence the timing of the next change in monetary policy.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence recovers to 115.2

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Feb-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 1.0% to 115.2 in the week ended 17 February. Households’ views towards current financial conditions rose 0.8%, while views toward future financial conditions rose 3.6%. Meanwhile, consumers’ views toward current and future economic conditions fell by 0.2% and 0.8% respectively. The ‘time to buy a household item’ index rose by 1.1% after four consecutive weekly declines. The four-week moving average of inflation expectations declined by 0.1ppt to 4.0%, the lowest since 2016.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

BHP resists ramp-up as prices surge

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 19 & 22 : 20-Feb-19

BHP has posted an underlying profit of $US3.8bn ($5.3bn) for the first half of 2018-19, which is slightly below the consensus forecast of analysts. Underlying EBITDA also fell slightly short of expectations at $US10.5bn. Meanwhile, CEO Andrew Mackenzie says BHP will not increase its iron ore output despite a rally in the price of the steel input in the wake of the tailings dam disaster in Brazil in January. Shareholders will receive a higher-than-expected interim dividend of $US0.55 per share.

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BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, VALE SA, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS

Australia Facing a Brick Wall of Blackouts by Jerry Ellis and Sir Rod Carnegie

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19 February 2019

The Chairman of the Saltbush Club, Mr Jerry Ellis, today warned that Australia needs more reliable baseload power.

“With the population and the economy growing, but with electricity availability and reliability in decline, we are racing headlong into a brick wall of blackouts.

“Recession and disruption will probably follow, bringing to mind those memorable 1990 words of Paul Keating: ‘This is the recession we had to have’. Except in this case the recession will be self-inflicted.

“Much of my working life was in the steel industry in the 1970s and 1980s. It operated 24×7, with large numbers of electric motors requiring a continuous supply of low-cost electrical power. Un-planned interruptions were rare, but when they occurred they were very costly.

“Now we face the prospect of planned and unplanned loss of power due to the rundown of base-load power capacity. It must be a nightmare for today’s steelmakers and aluminium refineries facing this growing crisis.

“It is essential that Australia rebalances economic imperatives against populist ideas regarding the release of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.

“A strong Australian economy is crucial to Australia’s welfare and will also make a valuable contribution to world prosperity.

“Australia produces a tiny proportion of the world’s carbon dioxide. Even total closure of our industry would have no detectable impact on carbon dioxide emissions or global climate.

“We urgently need new supplies of reliable energy from coal, gas, hydro or nuclear.”

Jerry Ellis was supported by Sir Rod Carnegie, former Managing Director, CEO and Chairman of CRA (Rio Tinto) who said:

“It is essential that Australia regains its reputation for cheap reliable electricity or we will lose our manufacturing and refining industries, returning only to our backbone industries of agriculture and mining”.


Jerry Ellis
Email: ellisann3@gmail.com

Jerry Ellis once managed Australia’s biggest steelworks at Port Kembla, and one of the world’s largest mining enterprises BHP minerals. He is a past Chairman of BHP and of Landcare.

Sir Rod Carnegie
PA Phone: 0419 329 700

Saltbush Club
Viv Forbes

Labor split erupts over Adani coal mine

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Original article by Mark Ludlow
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 2 : 19-Feb-19

CFMMEU Mining and Energy Queensland president Steve Smyth has accused the state government of a "go-slow" on approving Adani’s $2 billion Carmichael coal mine. It has been suggested that the government is trying to delay approval of the mine until after the federal election, so as to minimise any potential political damage to Opposition Leader Bill Shorten. Smyth says people in regional Queensland want to see the mine proceed, while he contends that thousands of jobs in the Galilee Basin are at risk if the state government does not approve the mine.

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CONSTRUCTION, FORESTRY, MARITIME, MINING AND ENERGY UNION OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, ADANI MINING PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, QUEENSLAND. DEPT OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND MINES, WARATAH COAL PTY LTD, GVK INDUSTRIES LIMITED, QUEENSLAND. DEPT OF ENVIRONMENT AND HERITAGE PROTECTION

South32-run Port Kembla locks out union over rolling stoppages

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Original article by Brad Thompson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 19-Feb-19

Members of the Construction, Forestry, Maritime, Mining & Energy Union were denied access to the Port Kembla Coal Terminal on 18 February, amid growing tensions over negotiations for a new enterprise bargaining agreement. The lockout will remain in force until 27 February, and coal will be loaded onto ships using contractors. South32, which partly owns the coal terminal, is currently engaged in conciliation talks regarding a separate EBA for workers at its New South Wales mines.

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CONSTRUCTION, FORESTRY, MARITIME, MINING AND ENERGY UNION OF AUSTRALIA, PORT KEMBLA COAL TERMINAL LIMITED, SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Last weekend’s Roy Morgan face-to-face poll shows: ALP 52.5%, L-NP 47.5%. L-NP jump 3% on 2PP after ALP vote to loosen border protection laws

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Feb-19

An Australia-wide Roy Morgan face-to-face poll conducted over the weekend of 16-17 February shows that support for the ALP on a two-party preferred basis is 52.5%, compared with 47.5% for the L-NP. There has been a 3% swing to the L-NP on a two-party preferred basis following the ALP’s decision to back the medivac legislation. The L-NP’s primary vote has risen by 2.5% to 37%, while the ALP’s primary vote has fallen 1.5% to 34.5%. Roy Morgan’s executive chairman Gary Morgan says the results of the Roy Morgan poll show that the issue of border protection is a major strength for the L-NP; however, a lot can happen between now and the Federal Election in May.

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MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Police wanted to prosecute at least one over AWU leak

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Original article by Andrew Tillett
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 19-Feb-19

The Australian Federal Police have disclosed that there seemed to be enough evidence to justify charging at least one person for leaking details of raids on the offices of the Australian Workers’ Union in October 2017. However, the Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions ruled against any prosecutions. The AFP’s Deputy Commissioner Leanne Close has also revealed that former industrial relations minister Michaelia Cash and former justice minister Michael Keenan declined to provide witness statements on two separate occasions, and had instead submitted written letters to the AFP.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN WORKERS’ UNION-FEDERATION OF INDUSTRIAL, MANUFACTURING AND ENGINEERING EMPLOYEES, AUSTRALIAN FEDERAL POLICE, AUSTRALIA. DIRECTOR OF PUBLIC PROSECUTIONS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF JOBS AND SMALL BUSINESS, AUSTRALIA. REGISTERED ORGANISATIONS COMMISSION, FEDERAL COURT OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Stan tipped for subscriber lift from Disney deal

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 19-Feb-19

Fraser McLeish of MST Marquee expects subscription video-on-demand provider Stan to have enjoyed strong growth in its customer base over the 2018-19 summer, following its content deal with Walt Disney Company in December. Nine Entertainment Company will shortly release the first subscription data for Stan since August, when it had 1.1 million active subscribers. MST Marquee values Stan at $500m, and McLeish believes that the SVOD provider’s value is not being reflected in Nine’s share price.

CORPORATES
STAN ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, WALT DISNEY COMPANY, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, MST MARQUEE, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED, GRANT SAMUEL AND ASSOCIATES PTY LTD