Author: roymorgansocial

Superannuation unlikely to be adequate for most workers in retirement

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Nov-18

A Roy Morgan Single Source survey has found that only 18% of Australians aged 14+ with superannuation contributed beyond the compulsory level in the year to October 2018. This compares with 23% in the year to October 2009. The proportion of male workers who contribute to their superannuation beyond the compulsory level has fallen from 24.5% to 18% over this period, while the proportion of female workers who make additional contributions has fallen from 21.1% to 18.1%. The survey also shows that 35.2% of Australians in the 55-64 age group make additional super contributions well ahead of workers aged 65+ (30.7%) and 45 to 54 year olds (24.4%). Just 4.0% of those aged 14-24 make additional contributions. The Single Source Survey is based on in-depth personal interviews conducted face-to-face with over 50,000 Australians per annum in their own homes, including over 23,000 workers with superannuation.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Inflation Expectations up 0.2% to 4.5% in October

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Nov-18

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.5% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for October 2018. This is up 0.2% on a month ago, but unchanged from October 2017. Inflation Expectations have now tracked in a narrow range between 4.3-4.5% for 16 straight months, since July 2017. Inflation Expectations remain well below the eight-year average of 5.0%. Analysis shows that Inflation Expectations for supporters of the two major political parties are down compared to a year ago, while Inflation Expectations for Greens supporters are unchanged. However, Inflation Expectations for supporters of Independents and Others have increased substantially over the last year. October Inflation Expectations are based on a nationwide face-to-face survey of 4,156 Australians aged 14+.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Antony Catalano in dramatic bid to scupper Nine, Fairfax merger

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Original article by John McDuling, Jennifer Duke
The Sydney Morning Herald – Page: Online : 19-Nov-18

Domain’s former CEO Antony Catalano has asked Fairfax Media chairman Nick Falloon to adjoin the 19 November shareholders’ vote on the proposed merger with Nine Entertainment Company. The scrip component of Nine’s offer is 0.3627 per share; Catalano says this means it is a "terrible deal" given that Fairfax is trading at $0.61 per share, compared with $0.94 when the deal was announced. Catalano has also told Falloon that he may seek to buy up to 19.9 per cent of Fairfax shares at above market prices in order to block the deal. He holds stakes of about one per cent in both Fairfax and Domain.

CORPORATES
FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX DHA, THORNEY INVESTMENT GROUP AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

AUD surges to near 3-month high on trade war optimism – November 19, 2018

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The Australian dollar has reversed early session weakness to leap through technical resistance and trade above 0.7300 to the highest level since late-August.  The moves came after US President Donald Trump said he is optimistic about resolving the trade war with China ahead of his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 meeting this month.  Whilst Trump was positive with his remarks, he also was quoted as saying “hopefully, we will make a deal, and if we don’t, we are doing very well just the way it is right now,” which suggests the onus is on China to meet Trump’s demands, or else the current tariffs will remain in place.

For now though the comments were enough to send the AUD surging higher, where it leapt from a session low of 0.7250 to touch 0.7337, before closing the week at 0.7330.  It was a good week for the Aussie, building off momentum generated from the US mid-terms and local employment data released by the ABS which showed continued growth in jobs added and the unemployment rate held steady at 5.00%.

This week the economic calendar is quite thin, with the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes and US core durable goods orders the highlights.  This could be the catalyst for a week of consolidation for the Aussie dollar in the absence of any major announcements.  Looking at the charts, there appears to be resistance at 0.7360 and 0.7380, representing trading highs in August.  If there is a break back below 0.7300, 0.7250 is the next key level of support.

The Australian dollar has also garnered support against the British pound, where on Friday it reached a 3-month high.  Political woes surrounding the UK’s exit from the European Union are weighing heavily on the pound, with PM Teresa May under extreme pressure from within her own party, with many of her colleagues criticising the handling of the divorce negotiations and there are rumours that a leadership challenge could be launched at any moment.

Economically speaking the sterling probably should be trading higher than it currently is, however all of this political uncertainty is preventing any sustained move higher.  Expect Brexit to dominate the headlines this week too whilst Teresa May tries to keep her party aligned and progress Brexit proceedings.

AUD/GBP closed the week at 0.5708, now up 6.5% from the October 11 low.  There appears to be resistance at 0.5750 followed by 0.5775, representing trading highs in June and August respectively.  Support starts at 0.5650 but given the wide trading range seen in recent time, it wouldn’t surprise if we see further moves beyond 0.5650 if the UK parliament can approve the Brexit divorce bill.

James King
Head of FX Dealing, AFEX
www.afex.com

The Saltbush Club: skilled and thinking Australians concerned at the huge costs and unproven benefits of the climate, energy and infrastructure policies on both sides of Federal Parliament

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Original article by Viv Forbes
pickeringpost.com – Page: Online : 16-Nov-18

A newly formed lobby group called the Saltbush Club is calling for Australia to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement. Jerry Ellis, founding chairman of the Club and a former chairman of BHP, contends that Australia’s efforts to reach its Paris targets have led to higher electricity prices and unreliable power supply. Hugh Morgan, a former CEO of Western Mining and director of the Saltbush Club, states that the Climate Agreement is really about the transfer of wealth to less developed nations. Saltbush organiser Viv Forbes claims that the United Nations is seeking to cripple western industry with high and unreliable electricity in a “futile attempt to control global climate”.

To learn more about the Saltbush Club please contact:
Viv Forbes (forbes@carbon-sense.com).

Also read a more detailed article in regards to the Saltbush Club available here: http://pickeringpost.com/story/the-saltbush-club/8689

CORPORATES
THE SALTBUSH CLUB, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, WESTERN MINING CORPORATION, UNITED NATIONS

Coles finally checks out from Wesfarmers

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Original article by Eli Greenblat, Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 19 & 29 : 16-Nov-18

The demerger of grocery giant Coles was supported by more than 98 per cent of votes cast at a special meeting of Wesfarmers shareholders on 15 November. The Perth-based conglomerate will retain a 15 per cent stake in Coles when its shares begin trading on a deferred settlement basis on 21 November. Wesfarmers chairman Michael Chaney has dismissed any concerns about an overhang, stressing that the company intends to retain its Coles stake in the long-term. Wesfarmers shareholders will be allocated Coles shares on a one-for-one basis.

CORPORATES
WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, COLES GROUP LIMITED, BUNNINGS GROUP LIMITED, WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED – ASX WOW, ALDI STORES SUPERMARKETS PTY LTD, AMAZON.COM INCORPORATED, METCASH LIMITED – ASX MTS

End of an era as Lowy flags Scentre board departure

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Original article by Ben Wilmot
The Australian – Page: 23 : 16-Nov-18

Steven Lowy has advised the board of Scentre Group that he will not seek re-election as a director at its AGM in April. Scentre is the owner and operator of Westfield shopping centres in Australia and New Zealand, with Lowy’s father Sir Frank having co-founded Westfield in 1960. Sir Frank struck a deal in December 2017 to sell Westfield Corporation, the owner of its international malls, to Unibail-Rodamco for $US24.7 billion ($32 billion). Steven Lowy was the last member of the Lowy family to remain on the Scentre board.

CORPORATES
SCENTRE GROUP – ASX SCG, WESTFIELD CORPORATION, UNIBAIL-RODAMCO, UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD – ASX URW

Strong hiring keeps jobless rate at 5pc

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Original article by Sarah Turner, Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 16-Nov-18

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that 42,300 full-time jobs were created in October, although the economy shed 9,500 part-time jobs. The net gain of 32,800 jobs saw the official unemployment rate remain steady at five per cent. The general consensus of economists had been that 20,000 jobs were created and the jobless rate had risen to 5.1 per cent. Meanwhile, Capital Economics has suggested that the level of full employment in the economy is now likely to be around four per cent rather than five per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Santos buckles up for a wild ride in volatile oil market

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Original article by Perry Williams
The Australian – Page: 19 & 29 : 16-Nov-18

Crude oil is trading at around $US56 a barrel, having peaked at $US81 in early October. Santos CEO Kevin Gallagher expects the recent price volality to continue in the near-term, although he is confident that the Adelaide-based oil and gas producer can ride it out. Meanwhile, Santos is hopeful that its new exploration joint venture with Shell in Queensland will yield new a source of gas supply for the east coast.

CORPORATES
SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC, ORGANISATION OF PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES

RBA in housing market warning

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 16-Nov-18

Apartment developers are increasingly having to seek funds from non-bank lenders as the major banks cut back on lending to the sector. The Reserve Bank’s deputy governor Guy Debelle says it is a trend that the central bank is keeping an eye on, warning that if it is overdone it could lead to a downturn in the housing market. Urbis recently reported that only 46 units were sold in new Sydney projects during the September quarter, compared to 381 sales of units in the previous corresponding period.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, URBIS PTY LTD