K: Financial and Insurance Services

In September 2026 risk of mortgage stress was 31.8%; up a large 7.9% points since January

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Oct-26

Research from Roy Morgan shows that 31.8% of mortgage holders were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to September 2026 (down 0.5% points from August). This is equivalent to 1,750,000 people (up 566,000 so far this year). The number of Australians who are ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress is up 389,000 on a year ago, after the Reserve Bank raised interest rates four times over the last 12 months. Meanwhile, the number of Australians who are considered to be ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress is now numbered at a record high of 1,262,000 (23% of mortgage holders); this is significantly above the long-term average over the last two decades of 16.5%. These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with over 60,000 Australians each year including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

NAB takes axe to 2,500 jobs as economy falters

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Original article by Cliona O’Dowd
The Australian – Page: 13 & 19 : 21-Oct-26

National Australia Bank expects its 2026-27 financial accounts to include a pre-tax restructuring charge of about $300m, after revealing plans to shed six per cent of its workforce. NAB will intially shed 1,500 jobs by the end of 2026, and a further 1,000 positions by June 2027. The job cuts are expected to be focused on back-office roles, rather than customer-facing staff; NAB says the move is aimed at simplifying its operations. NAB has also advised that 180 jobs will be shifted offshore; it already has more than 5,000 workers in India and 2,000 in Vietnam.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

CBA staff stand-off ends with 13pc pay rise deal

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Original article by Jack Derwin
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 14-Oct-26

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia has secured an in-principle deal with the Finance Sector Union for a new enterprise agreement, following six months of negotiations. The wage deal includes pay rises over three years across the bank’s operations, with the size of the increases linked to pay bands; it includes a pay rise of 13 per cent over three years for the bank’s lowest-paid employees. The FSU says the pay deal will set a strong starting point for negotiations with the nation’s other major banks over the next year. The CBA has also agreed to establish an artificial intelligence committee.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, FINANCE SECTOR UNION

In August 2026 risk of mortgage stress virtually unchanged at 32.3%, but up a large 8.4% points since January

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Sep-26

New research from Roy Morgan shows that 32.3% of mortgage holders were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to August 2026. This is equivalent to 1,718,000 people (down 68,000 on a month earlier, but up 534,000 so far this year). The proportion of people at risk of mortgage stress is down 0.2% points from July, although it is up 8.4% points since January after three interest rate increases from the Reserve Bank early this year. Yesterday’s interest rate increase of 25 basis points to a 15-year high of 4.6% will impact future mortgage stress. Meanwhile, the number of Australians who are considered to be ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress, is now numbered at 1,207,000 (22.7% of mortgage holders); this is significantly above the long-term average over the last two decades of 16.4%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Investors brace for end of four-year bull run

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Original article by Gus McCubbing
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 16-Sep-26

The Australian sharemarket has shed 4.4 per cent in the last month, while the S&P 500 is down 1.6 per cent. Meanwhile, Australian and US bond yields are continuing to rise, the Iran war-induced surge in the crude oil price is putting upward pressure on inflation, and there is growing expectation of official interest rate rises in both Australia and the US. Rich Dell from insurance broking and risk management group Marsh says such factors will heighten the risk of a sharemarket correction, and potentially the end of the four-year bull run.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, MARSH INCORPORATED

Westpac: 70pc of employees use AI daily

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Original article by James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 16 : 16-Sep-26

Westpac has told investors that more than 95 per cent of its employees now use artificial intelligence tools at least once a month, compared with 69 per cent at the start of 2026. Meanwhile, more than 70 per cent of the bank’s staff have integrated AI tools into their everyday workflow, up from just 14 per cent in January. AI tools have also reduced the timeline for migrating St George customers to Westpac’s banking platform by two years. Westpac’s chief data, digital and AI officer Andrew McMullan says the banking industry is undergoing one of the most significant shifts it has ever seen.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, ST GEORGE BANK LIMITED

El Nino to affect interest rates and some ASX stocks

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Original article by Gus McCubbing
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 26-Aug-26

The current El Nino weather event in the Pacific Ocean began in June and is expected to last well into 2027; it is likely to put upward pressure on food prices, and therefore Australia’s inflation rate. There are fears that it could become a ‘ Super El Nino’, and Citi commodity strategist Arkady Gevorkyan says this is the firm’s highest-conviction agricultural risk. Citi notes that Australian crops such as wheat, barley, and canola are most at risk from an El Nino event. On the other hand, Morgan Stanley says the metals market could be boosted if copper production in Chile and Zambia is impacted by El Nino.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Investors screwed over as BHP keeps rising

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 26-Aug-26

BHP’s share price has risen by 13 per cent so far in August, reaching a new record high yesterday. The resources giant now accounts for nearly 12 per cent of the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index, compared with just 7.4 per cent at around this time last year. In contrast, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s shares have fallen by 11 per cent so far this month, and its weighting in the ASX 200 has fallen from nearly 12 per cent to 10.5 per cent in the last year. Fund managers who missed out on CBA’s stellar rise in 2025 are now facing the same issue with BHP.

CORPORATES
BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX

Extreme mortgage stress increases nationally, driven by people on lower incomes and in lower socio-economic quintiles

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Aug-26

Roy Morgan’s Single Source research shows that an estimated 1.06 million mortgage holders (19.8%) were ‘Extremely at Risk’ of mortgage stress in the six months to June 2026, up from 16.7% in December 2025, and 19.3% higher than in June 2024 (just before the reworked Stage 3 tax cuts took effect). The proportion of mortgage holders who are ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress (a less strict measure) has in turn risen from 25.2% in December 2025 to 28.5% in June 2026; this equates to 1.53 million mortgage holders. Mortgage stress eased from June 2024 to December 2025, driven by factors such as real wage growth as inflation declined, income tax cuts, home loan interest rate cuts and a rising sharemarket. However, renewed increases in interest rates and inflation in 2026 are putting renewed pressure on mortgage stress. A key cohort driving high levels of extreme mortgage stress are lower income earners with household incomes of less than $100,000, and people in the lower socio-economic quintiles.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

In June risk of mortgage stress up 1.3% points after the Reserve Bank raised interest rates in May to 4.35%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Jul-26

New research from Roy Morgan shows that 30.3% of mortgage holders were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to June 2026, up 1.3% points from May. This is equivalent to 1,606,000 people (up 68,000 on a month earlier), and the highest level of mortgage stress since the amended Stage 3 income tax cuts were introduced at the end of June 2024. The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress is up by 115,000 on a year ago, after the Reserve Bank cut interest rates in May and August 2025, and then raised them in February, March and May 2026. Meanwhile, the number of Australians who are considered to be ‘Extremely At Risk’ of mortgage stress is now numbered at 1,096,000 (20.7% of mortgage holders); this is significantly above the long-term average over the last two decades of 16.4%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA