K62 Finance

Higher dollar not enough to kill RBA’s chill

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires, Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 29-Feb-16

There is general consensus among economists that the Reserve Bank will leave the cash rate unchanged at two per cent on 1 March 2016. Shane Oliver of AMP Capital is among the economists who expect an interest rate cut at some point in 2016. Meanwhile, the Commonwealth Bank’s Michael Blythe does not expect the central bank to resume "jawboning" the Australian dollar in its monetary policy statement, despite its recent rise to a seven-week high.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, BETASHARES CAPITAL LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, ST GEORGE BANK LIMITED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BANK OF JAPAN

Australian Roy Morgan Business Confidence rises in February bringing a halt to three months of falls

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Feb-16

A Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey has found that Australian business confidence rose by 2.7 points to 113.3 in February 2016, following a combined fall of 8.7 points over the previous three months. The stabilisation in business confidence comes after sharp falls on the Australian sharemarket early in 2016 levelled off in February. The level of business confidence in February is clearly positive for the economy overall, but below the five-year average (116.7), and the weakness of indicators related to the health of the Australian economy is a sign that confidence remains fragile and easily impacted by negative economic events.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITEDAUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINETAUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURYAUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZSTANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES INDEXDICK SMITH HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX DSHMASTERS HOME IMPROVEMENT AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence tracking up – now at 114.3

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 23-Feb-16

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating for Australia rose by 0.6 per cent to 114.3 in the week ended 21 February 2016. The 2.8 per cent increase over the past three weeks partially retraces the declines recorded through January. With the negative impact from the financial market volatility in early January appearing to be short-lived, confidence is now tracking higher with most sub-indexes showing an improvement. Consumer confidence in the past few weeks shows that consumers’ views towards their current personal finances and the near term economic outlook were most sensitive towards the financial market rout, falling between 6-8 per cent in the last four weeks of January. They have, however, recovered in the past three weeks, with both rising a cumulative 4.2 per cent. Overall though, households’ confidence in the economic outlook remains much weaker than their view of their own finances.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Australia at risk from hard landing in China

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 35 : 18-Feb-16

The Chinese economy expanded by just 6.9 per cent in 2015, and Oxford Economics forecasts a gradual slowing of economic growth over the next five years. However, Sian Fenner of Oxford Economics warns that Australia could face a recession in 2016 if the Chinese economy experiences a "hard landing". Fenner adds that in the event of a recession the Reserve Bank could reduce the cash rate to just 0.25 per cent, which would limit the extent of the economic downturn.

CORPORATES
OXFORD ECONOMICS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AVIVA PLC, PEOPLE’S BANK OF CHINA, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES INDEX

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence increases to 113.6

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Original article by Gary Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Feb-16

The rise in Consumer Confidence to 113.6 in the week ended 14 February 2016 comes after Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull appeared to rule out any prospect of a GST increase to 15 per cent being taken to the Australian electorate as part of the Government’s taxation reform package. The decision to look for other means to improve the Australian taxation system has given a boost to the confidence of Australian consumers who now don’t face the prospect of higher costs for goods and services that a higher GST would bring. As school leavers return from Summer holidays the next few months will determine whether they are able to find meaningful employment in a tough economic environment and this impact on Australia’s real unemployment – now at 10.3 per cent – 1.346 million in January – will also flow through as a forward indicator to the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence increases to 113.6

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Feb-16

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating for Australia rose by 2.0 per cent to 113.6 in the week ended 14 February 2016. This follows a modest 0.2 per cent increase in the previous week and takes confidence back above its long-run average. The broad-based increase in confidence may suggest consumers are looking through the equity market weakness and shifting focus to domestic fundamentals. The sub-index on "finances compared to a year ago" has risen by 1.2 per cent, and consumers’ views on whether now is a good time to buy a major household item has risen by 2.9 per cent.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Bendigo still beats analyst forecasts

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Original article by Shaun Drummond
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 16-Feb-16

Bendigo & Adelaide Bank has posted a 2015-16 interim net profit of $A208.7m, which is 8.2 per cent lower than previously. However, its after-tax cash profit rose by 2.7 per cent to $A223.7m and net income rose to $A783.5m. Income from the regional bank’s Homesafe reverse mortgage-style product increased by 66 per cent to $A50.4m. The group’s shares closed at $A8.86 on 15 February 2016.

CORPORATES
BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED – ASX BEN, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, CONTANGO ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, MACQUARIE BANK LIMITED – ASX MBL, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES INDEX

CBA holds dividend as urgency fades

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Original article by James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 & 20 : 11-Feb-16

Commonwealth Bank shareholders will receive a 2015-16 interim dividend of $A1.98 per share, which equates to a payout ratio of around 70 per cent. The banking major has indicated that its full-year dividend payout will be 70-80 per cent of profits. Meanwhile, CEO Ian Narev says the bank is "very happy" with its current level of capital, and he expects the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) to let banks increase their capital levels gradually. The Commonwealth Bank’s common equity tier 1 capital level is now 10.2 per cent, while APRA requires a minimum of eight per cent.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, NORDEA BANK AB, UBS AG

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence stabilising for now at 111.4

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Feb-16

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating for Australia rose by 0.2 per cent to 111.4 in the week ended 7 February 2016, breaking the declining trend in confidence seen over the previous four weeks. The recent weakness has left confidence below its long-run average levels. However, the latest result may suggest that concerns around financial market volatility have abated somewhat. The sub-index on "finances in the next 12 months" has fallen by 1.3 per cent, and the sub-index on "economic conditions in the next 12 months" has fallen by 1.7 per cent.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence on the crawl – down 1pt to 111.2

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-Feb-16

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating for Australia fell by one per cent to 111.2 in the week ended 31 January 2016, and it has fallen by 4.4 per cent over the last four weeks. On average, confidence was 2.1 per cent lower in January compared with December. It is unusual for confidence to fall in January, and this is the first time since 2008 that the year has started on a pessimistic note. The sub-index on "financial situation compared to a year ago" has fallen by 2.9 per cent, although the sub-index on "economic conditions in the next 12 months" has risen by 2.3 per cent.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ