K62 Finance

RBA to cut twice more to 0.5pc, say economists

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Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 22 : 30-Sep-19

A quarterly survey of economists shows that there is general consensus that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate to 0.5 per cent by mid-2020. Most of the respondents expect official interests to be cut by 25 basis points before the end of 2019, followed by another cut by June. However, Shane Oliver of AMP Capital and Alan Oster of National Australia Bank expect a cash of 0.5 per cent at the end of 2019. Futures markets have priced in a 76 per cent chance of a rate cut on 1 October, and fully priced in a rate cut in November.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Savings rate hit as banks brace for interest pain

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Original article by Samantha Bailey
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 26-Sep-19

Data from RateCity shows that ANZ, Westpac and ING are among the banks that have reduced their savings rates by up to 25 basis points in the last fortnight. RateCity also notes that the average savings rate is now 1.1 per cent; this compares with 1.57 per cent in May, prior to the Reserve Bank’s back-to-back official interest rate cuts. With the central bank widely tipped to ease monetary policy again in October, Credit Suisse estimates that banks’ at-call deposit rates would have to fall by about 51 basis points to offset the earnings impact of passing the full cash rate cut on to mortgage borrowers.

CORPORATES
RATECITY PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, ING BANK (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, AMP BANK LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, MYSTATE LIMITED – ASX MYS, BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED – ASX BOQ

Economists raise chances of QE

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 26-Sep-19

UBS’s chief economist George Tharenou says there is a growing possibility that the Reserve Bank of Australia will have to resort to unconventional monetary policy options. He says the US Federal Reserve is likely to reduce official interest rates by another one per cent over the next year, as US economic growth slows due to the latest round of tariff hikes. This in turn will put pressure on the RBA to further ease monetary policy, and potentially resort to measures such as quantitative easing. Tharenou expects the RBA to reduce the cash rate to just 0.25 per cent by May 2020.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

CBA cut heats up home loan war

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Original article by Duncan Hughes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 12 : 25-Sep-19

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia will reduce its interest rates on a range of mortgage loans for owner-occupiers and property investors. The rate cuts range from 10 basis points to 90 basis points, and apply to loan periods ranging from one to five years. Mortgage brokers say the move suggests that CBA expects the Reserve Bank to further ease monetary policy. Westpac recently announced a reduction in its mortgage loan serviceability floor.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES

Westpac dividend under pressure

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Original article by James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 23-Sep-19

There is growing speculation that Westpac could reduce its dividend payout in response to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s new capital requirements. Westpac has yet to determine the size of its final dividend for 2018-19, but Credit Suisse has forecast both a lower payout and a capital raising of at least $1.5bn when Westpac releases its full-year results in early November. The prospect of further official interest rate cuts in Australia is also weighing on the earnings of the nation’s banks.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, EVANS AND PARTNERS ASIA FUND – ASX EAF, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, PM CAPITAL LIMITED

Westpac gives itself 12 months to replace CFO

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Original article by Tim Boyd
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 13-Sep-19

Westpac announced on 12 September that chief financial officer Peter King will retire in 2020, with King having joined Westpac from Deloitte in 1994. King became deputy CFO in 2011 and CFO in 2014, replacing Phil Coffey. King says that Westpac has transformed itself in the time that he has been there, while UBS banking analyst Jonathan Mott said that whomever Westpac chooses to replace King "will have some big boots to fill". Westpac CEO Brian Hartzer thanked King for his significant contribution to the company.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, DELOITTE TOUCHE TOHMATSU LIMITED

Bank bosses need a reality check

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Original article by James Frost
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 12-Sep-19

Former regulator Graeme Samuel told a parliamentary hearing on 11 September that the ANZ needs a "reality check". Samuel was responding to questions about his review of the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA), with Samuel noting that the ANZ was one of 32 entities that have chosen not to make their prudential self-assessment public. He said that the National Australia Bank had set the benchmark by releasing its self-assessment in late 2018, and that the ANZ should be compelled to submit to a snap inquiry if it did not release its review.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

ANZ tips 0.25pc cash rate by May

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Original article by Melissa Yeo, David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 21 : 6-Sep-19

The ANZ Bank’s head of Australian economics David Plank expects the Reserve Bank to reduce the cash rate by 0.25 per cent in October, and he says it is likely to ease monetary policy again in February and May 2020. Plank says factors such as the outlook for unemployment and global uncertainty will see official interest rates fall to a record low of 0.25 per cent. UBS economist George Tharenou also anticipates rate cuts in October and February, and he has flagged the potential for a third rate cut in March.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Brokers lift share of housing pie as bank branches lose business

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Original article by Richard Gluyas
The Australian – Page: 21 : 4-Sep-19

Data from UBS shows that Australia’s major banks account for 79 per cent of existing mortgage loans. However, Jon Mott of UBS says their share of new home loans is likely to keep falling as the trend toward alternatives such as mortgage brokers gathers pace. UBS also notes that the proportion of home loans that are sold via bank branches has fallen from 48 per cent in fiscal 2013 to just 37 per cent. Mott notes that the major banks’ aggressive push to close bank branches in recent years has contributed to the growing use of mortgage brokers.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

ANZ boss braces for slowdown

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Original article by Richard Gluyas, Glenda Korporaal, David Rogers, Andrew White
The Australian – Page: 17 & 25 : 4-Sep-19

Harvey Norman chairman Gerry Harvey expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to reduce the cash rate to at least 0.5 per cent, but he says this will do little to stimulate the economy. The RBA signalled on 3 September that official interest rates are likely to remain low for an extended period; ANZ Bank CEO Shayne Elliott says record low interest rates demonstrate that central banks are concerned about the global economic outlook. The RBA’s monthly board meeting coincided with the release of data showing that retail spending fell by 0.1 per cent in July, compared with economists’ expectations of an 0.2 per cent increase.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIAN TAXATION OFFICE, LATITUDE FINANCIAL SERVICES AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD