K62 Finance

Bond signal: ultra-low rates for a decade

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 26 : 9-Aug-19

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely tipped to reduce the cash rate below 0.5 per cent within six months, and overnight indexed swaps pricing suggests that the cash rate will average 0.84 per cent over the next decade. David Plank of the ANZ Bank warns that the central bank will most likely need to adopt a quantitative easing policy within 5-10 years; he adds that this will probably not be necessary in the next year or so, unless there is a significant downturn in the global economy.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, AUSTRALIA. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES STANDING COMMITTEE ON ECONOMICS

Cheap money squeezes CBA

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Original article by James Eyers, Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 18 : 8-Aug-19

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia has posted a 2018-19 cash profit of $8.49bn, which is 4.7 per cent lower than previously; revenue was two per cent lower at $24.4bn. CEO Matt Comyn has warned that the bank’s net interest margin will fall by four basis points in 2019-20 due to the consecutive official interest rate cuts in June and July. He adds that there will be limited scope to pass on further rate cuts to customers, as many of its deposit rates are already close to zero. CBA’s cost-to-income ratio is currently 46.2 per cent, and Comyn says the aim is to reduce it to below 40 per cent over time.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, PM CAPITAL LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND

Aussie 10-year bond yield drops below 1pc

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Original article by Patrick Commins, Vesna Poljak, Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 27 : 7-Aug-19

The fallout from the escalating trade and currency war between the US and China has seen the yield on Australian 10-year government bonds fall below the cash rate for the first time. The bond yield reached a record low of 0.968 per cent on 6 August, before rising to 1.047 per cent late in trading. Meanwhile, the futures market has priced in an 0.25 per cent reduction in the cash rate by October, after the Reserve Bank left official interest rates unchanged at one per cent at its monthly board meeting.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, QIC LIMITED, ARDEA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, UNITED STATES. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, PEOPLE’S BANK OF CHINA, EXANTE DATA

Big four lending at record low as competition bites

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Original article by Duncan Hughes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 6-Aug-19

Analysis by Morgan Stanley suggests that smaller Australian banks and non-authorised deposit-taking institutions are enjoying stronger growth in mortgage lending than the nation’s four largest banks. The ‘big four’ are attempting to counter this by offering incentives and aggressively reducing their interest rates, but some of the smaller lenders are matching these offers. Meanwhile, data from Australian Finance Group shows that the market share of non-bank lenders rose to a record 42 per cent in the June quarter.

CORPORATES
MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN FINANCE GROUP LIMITED – ASX AFG, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, ME BANK, BENDIGO BANK, CANSTAR PTY LTD, THINKTANK, THE BLACKSTONE GROUP LP, LA TROBE FINANCIAL PTY LTD

CBA sets banking tone with profit pressure

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Original article by Cliona O’Dowd
The Australian – Page: 17 & 20 : 5-Aug-19

The consensus of analysts polled by Bloomberg is that the Commonwealth Bank of Australia will post a 2018-19 cash profit of $8.76bn, which would be seven per cent lower than previously. Jonathan Mott of UBS estimates that CBA has about $5bn in excess capital after completing the sale of Colonial First State Global Asset Management. He says that rather than announcing a special dividend, the bank should retain some capital until the outcome of the New Zealand Capital Review is known. Mott recently downgraded his recommendation on CBA’s stock to ‘sell’. AMP and Suncorp are among the other companies that will issue earnings reports in coming days.

CORPORATES
COMMOTION SYSTEMS, BLOOMBERG LP, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, COLONIAL FIRST STATE GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUN, INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX IAG, AGL ENERGY LIMITED – ASX AGL, TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED – ASX TCL, RECKON LIMITED – ASX RKN, MIRVAC GROUP – ASX MGR, MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP INCORPORATED, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, ORD MINNETT GROUP LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY

Data laws a win for bank customers

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Original article by Supratim Adhikari, Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 20 : 2-Aug-19

Australian Banking Association CEO Anna Bligh says open banking will boost competition and will be good for bank customers. Open banking becomes possible following the passage of the federal government’s Consumer Data Right legislation, which will make it easier for customers to change financial institutions. MoneyPlace CEO Stuart Stoyan says open banking will lead to the elimination of poor products and services, and that the big banks will actually be one of its biggest beneficiaries, despite their misgivings about the open banking reforms.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BANKING ASSOCIATION, MONEYPLACE PTY LTD

US Fed rate cut gives Reserve Bank cover

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Original article by Vesna Poljak, Luke Housego
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 31 : 2-Aug-19

Andrew Canobi of Franklin Templeton says the US Federal Reserve is still widely tipped to announce two further interest rate cuts over the next year. However, he says the central bank is likely to pursue less aggressive monetary policy easing than had been recently forecast, after chairman Jerome Powell signalled that the rate cut on 1 August will not be the start of "a long series of rate cuts". The more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve will be welcomed by the Reserve Bank of Australia, as it should reduce any upward pressure on the Australian dollar.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, FRANKLIN TEMPLETON ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Fed cut lifts pressure on RBA board

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 1-Aug-19

Economists suggest that better-than-expected inflation data for the June quarter will prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave official interest rates on hold in August. The consumer price index rose 0.6 per cent during the quarter and 1.6 per cent year-on-year. However, inflation remains well below the RBA’s target range of 2-3 per cent, and further monetary policy easing is possible later in 2019 if the unemployment rate does not fall. The US Federal Reserve’s August interest rate cut may also force the RBA to act before the end of the year.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

RBA could cut cash rate as soon as August

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Original article by William McInnes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 : 30-Jul-19

The futures market has priced in a 20 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate for a third consecutive month in August. Inflation data to be released on 31 July may influence the timing of any rate cut; market expectations are for a CPI of 1.5 per cent for the June quarter, below the RBA’s forecast of 1.6 per cent. National Australia Bank economist Tapas Strickland says the CPI reading would probably need to be around 1.3 per cent or 1.4 per cent for the central bank to reduce the cash rate in August.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, IFM INVESTORS PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

Banks face more Hayne pain: ASIC

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Original article by James Frost
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 17 : 29-Jul-19

The Australian Securities & Investments Commission has launched about 25 cases against banks in the wake of the financial services royal commission. ASIC commissioner Sean Hughes says further legal action is pending, and he says it is possible that further misconduct and wrongdoings in the financial sector will emerge. Hughes adds that banks are starting to take their obligation to submit breach reports in a timely manner a lot more seriously following the royal commission.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB