K62 Finance

US Fed rate cut gives Reserve Bank cover

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Original article by Vesna Poljak, Luke Housego
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 31 : 2-Aug-19

Andrew Canobi of Franklin Templeton says the US Federal Reserve is still widely tipped to announce two further interest rate cuts over the next year. However, he says the central bank is likely to pursue less aggressive monetary policy easing than had been recently forecast, after chairman Jerome Powell signalled that the rate cut on 1 August will not be the start of "a long series of rate cuts". The more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve will be welcomed by the Reserve Bank of Australia, as it should reduce any upward pressure on the Australian dollar.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, FRANKLIN TEMPLETON ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Fed cut lifts pressure on RBA board

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 1-Aug-19

Economists suggest that better-than-expected inflation data for the June quarter will prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave official interest rates on hold in August. The consumer price index rose 0.6 per cent during the quarter and 1.6 per cent year-on-year. However, inflation remains well below the RBA’s target range of 2-3 per cent, and further monetary policy easing is possible later in 2019 if the unemployment rate does not fall. The US Federal Reserve’s August interest rate cut may also force the RBA to act before the end of the year.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

RBA could cut cash rate as soon as August

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Original article by William McInnes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 : 30-Jul-19

The futures market has priced in a 20 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate for a third consecutive month in August. Inflation data to be released on 31 July may influence the timing of any rate cut; market expectations are for a CPI of 1.5 per cent for the June quarter, below the RBA’s forecast of 1.6 per cent. National Australia Bank economist Tapas Strickland says the CPI reading would probably need to be around 1.3 per cent or 1.4 per cent for the central bank to reduce the cash rate in August.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, IFM INVESTORS PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

Banks face more Hayne pain: ASIC

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Original article by James Frost
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 17 : 29-Jul-19

The Australian Securities & Investments Commission has launched about 25 cases against banks in the wake of the financial services royal commission. ASIC commissioner Sean Hughes says further legal action is pending, and he says it is possible that further misconduct and wrongdoings in the financial sector will emerge. Hughes adds that banks are starting to take their obligation to submit breach reports in a timely manner a lot more seriously following the royal commission.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Inflation data set to drift further from RBA target

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 29-Jul-19

The consensus of economists polled by Bloomberg is that Australia’s underlying inflation rate eased from 1.6 per cent to 1.5 per cent in the June quarter. The CPI data to be released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on 31 July is likely to heighten expectations that the Reserve Bank will further ease monetary policy by October, while it might also boost the local sharemarket.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX

ASIC sues ANZ over $50m unlawful customer fees

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Original article by Samantha Bailey
The Australian – Page: 24 : 26-Jul-19

The Australian Securities & Investments Commission has filed Federal Court action against the ANZ Bank, alleging that periodic payment fees that some 460,000 customers paid between August 2003 and February 2016 were unlawful. ASIC will contend that the bank failed to disclose the fact that the fees may have been illegal until January 2014, despite being made aware of the issue in mid-2011. Affected customers were not informed until September 2015, and ANZ did not begin compensating them until August 2016. ANZ has indicated that it will "vigorously defend" the civil lawsuit.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, FEDERAL COURT OF AUSTRALIA

RBA targets lower for longer rates

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 21 & 29 : 26-Jul-19

Financial markets have priced in a 93 per cent chance of an official interest rate cut in October, after Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe indicated that the cash rate will remain low for some time. He also reiterated the central bank’s commitment to inflation targeting, and said the cash rate is unlikely to rise until the RBA is confident that inflation will return to around the midpoint of the target range of 2-3 per cent. The Australian dollar fell to a two-week low in response to Lowe’s comments, while the yield on 10-year bonds reached a record low.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES INDEX, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Lack of confidence to force RBA rate cut

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 2 : 25-Jul-19

Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans now expects official interest rates to fall to a record low of 0.5 per cent by February. Evans had previously forecast that the cash rate would reach a low of 0.75 per cent in the current monetary policy easing cycle. His revised forecast was prompted by factors such as a decline in consumer confidence in the wake of the rate cuts in June and July.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED, SEEK LIMITED – ASX SEK, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF JOBS AND SMALL BUSINESS

Greedy banks inhibit stimulus

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 17 & 21 : 23-Jul-19

Jonathan Mott of UBS has questioned whether the return on equity targets of Australia’s four major banks are "justifiable or sustainable". He argues that these targets could undermine the Reserve Bank’s efforts to stimulate the economy via interest rate cuts, as they reduce banks’ incentive to cut their own interest rates due to the impact on their net interest margins. The differential between the cash rate and banks’ lending rates has widened from less than two per cent prior to the global financial crisis to almost four per cent.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, CANSTAR PTY LTD

Job data puts rate cut expectations on hold

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 19-Jul-19

The chances of an interest rate cut in August have lengthened following the release of data showing that Australia’s official unemployment rate was steady at 5.2 per cent in June. Analysis by Westpac suggests that financial markets are pricing in a 15 per cent chance of a rate cut in August, although the Reserve Bank is still widely tipped to ease monetary policy by the end of the year. The jobless rate rose from 5.19 per cent to 5.24 per cent in unrounded terms in June, while the underemployment rate fell to 8.2 per cent.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED