K: Financial and Insurance Services

You’re fired: result shows the limits of the forecasters

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 33 : 11-Nov-16

Most public opinion polls had pointed to Hillary Clinton winning the US presidential election. Principal Global Investors’ Mark Farrington likens polling methods to the trading models used in financial market, noting that they both rely on historical predictions. In the case of Donald Trump’s election victory, and the Brexit vote earlier in 2016, traditional models did not reflect the forces that influenced voting trends. Meanwhile, Wall Street rallied and bond yields rose in response to Trump’s election victory.

CORPORATES
PRINCIPAL GLOBAL INVESTORS, UBS O’CONNOR LLC, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Buck doesn’t stop with top execs

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Original article by Richard Gluyas
The Australian – Page: 25 : 11-Nov-16

When the CEOs of Australia’s four major banks appeared before an economics committee in October 2016 they revealed that no senior executives have been sacked over scandals that have plagued the sector. National Australia Bank has sacked 43 financial planners, while Westpac has sacked 139 of the 885 employees it has investigated for potential breaches of its code of conduct. Meanwhile, just 16 of the employees that have been dismissed by the Commonwealth Bank were executive managers.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, COMMINSURE, AUSTRALIA. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES STANDING COMMITTEE ON ECONOMICS, FINANCE AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

CBA pay revolt triggers first strike at AGM

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Original article by James Eyers, Julie-anne Sprague
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 2 : 10-Nov-16

At the Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s AGM in Perth on 9 November 2016, the bank received a "first strike" when 49 per cent of votes and proxies rejected the remuneration report. Shareholders objected to the introduction of performance measures that would be difficult to measure and quantify. The meeting was disrupted by environmentalists who chanted a slogan "Act on climate, CommBank can".

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, INSTITUTIONAL SHAREHOLDER SERVICES INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIAN SHAREHOLDERS’ ASSOCIATION, AUSTRALIAN YOUTH CLIMATE CHANGE COALITION LIMITED

Wave of uncertainty wipes $30bn

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 21 & 30 : 10-Nov-16

The Australian dollar and the domestic sharemarket fell sharply on 9 November 2016, in response to the election of US presidential candidate Donald Trump. The S&P/ASX 200 reached an intra-day low of 5,052.1 before closing down 1.9 per cent at 5156.6. In the US, S&P 500 futures initially fell by more than five per cent, which resulted in a temporary suspension of trading. Some analysts expect "risk-off" trading to be sustained for some time, while the prospect of an interest rate rise in the US in December appears to have diminished. The Australian dollar reached a low of $US0.758 in local trading, and Westpac’s Robert Rennie says it could fall below $US0.74 in the near-term.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, FTSE 100 INDEX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED

Buckle up for a day of unusual volatility

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Original article by David Rogers, Andrew White, Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 19 & 28 : 9-Nov-16

The US presidential election is set to dominate financial market trading on 9 November 2016. Voting trends will have emerged by the time the Australian sharemarket opens, while market volatility can be expected as exit polls are released over the course of the local trading day. The Chicago Board Options Exchange’s Volatility Index has returned to its long-term average of 19, which suggests that financial markets do not anticipate that Donald Trump will win.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, CHICAGO BOARD OPTIONS EXCHANGE VOLATILITY INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, VOTECASTR, REPUBLICAN PARTY (UNITED STATES), DEMOCRATIC PARTY (UNITED STATES), RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MONASH UNIVERSITY, ECONOMICS SOCIETY OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION, AUSDRILL LIMITED – ASX ASL

Banks stare at low growth as pressures rise

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Original article by James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 19 : 9-Nov-16

The combined cash earnings of Australia’s four major banks fell by 2.5 per cent in 2015-6, to $A29.6bn. They recorded net interest income growth of 5.5 per cent, to $A60.3bn, but non-interest income was down 3.1 per cent at $A23.5bn. Michael Rowland of KPMG says the banks are facing a number of headwinds, including the prospect of lower growth in revenue and return on equity, growing competition and an increase in regulatory costs.

CORPORATES
KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, PM CAPITAL LIMITED, ERNST AND YOUNG

Westpac returns hit by need to build capital

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Original article by James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 & 15 : 8-Nov-16

Westpac has posted a 2015-16 cash profit of $A7.8bn. Its return on equity fell by 1.85 per cent to 14 per cent in the year to 30 September 2016, and its ROE target has been scaled back from 15 per cent to 13-14 per cent due to factors such as new capital requirements for the banking sector. PwC estimates that the combined ROE of the four major banks fell by 127 basis points to 13.75 per cent in 2015-16. Meanwhile, Westpac will seek to reduce its cost-to-income ratio from 42 per cent at present to less than 40 per cent

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS AUSTRALIA (INTERNATIONAL) PTY LTD, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS. BASEL COMMITTEE ON BANKING SUPERVISION, KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Clinton victory set to unleash a ‘wave of cash’ into global markets

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Original article by David Rogers, Glenda Korporaal, Michael Bennet
The Australian – Page: 19 & 32 : 8-Nov-16

The Australian sharemarket rallied on 7 November 2016, after a new FBI probe cleared US presidential candidate Hillary Clinton over the use of a private email server. AMP Capital’s Nader Naeimi says investors are likely to reallocate cash holdings to higher-risk assets if Clinton wins the election. Meanwhile, Paul Donovan of UBS has warned that world trade and global capital flows could be disrupted if Donald Trump becomes president.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, UBS AG, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, NZSX-50 INDEX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Credit won’t predict next crisis, but gives protection

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 17 : 7-Nov-16

Alexander Funds Management MD Chris Black notes that credit markets anticipated the global financial crisis well before equity markets. He says the GFC was primarily a credit-driven event, but this will not be the case with the next financial market crash. He adds that credit will be a safer asset class when the next financial market downturn comes. Alexander Funds has delivered a return of 16.64 per cent since it was founded as Laminar in 2009, but Black cautions that investors should not expect returns similar to those in the years immediately after the GFC.

CORPORATES
ALEXANDER FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, CROWN RESORTS LIMITED – ASX CWN

Ingham shares hatch to wary IPO market

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 18 : 7-Nov-16

Inghams Group’s listing on the Australian sharemarket on 7 November is likely to be closely scrutinised by investors after the IPO had to be repriced. The stock has been issued at $A3.15 per share, compared with initial hopes of between $A3.57 to $A4.14. Bravura Solutions and the Charter Hall Long WALE REIT have also been forced to scale back the issue price of their stock. Some fund managers note that investor sentiment has changed in recent weeks, particularly with regard to IPOs.

CORPORATES
INGHAMS GROUP LIMITED – ASX ING, BRAVURA SOLUTIONS LIMITED – ASX BVS, CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT – ASX CLW, APOLLO TOURISM AND LEISURE LIMITED – ASX ATL, PENGANA EMERGING COMPANIES FUND, TPG CAPITAL LP, THE CARLYLE GROUP, PACIFIC EQUITY PARTNERS PTY LTD, HEALTHSCOPE LIMITED – ASX HSO, DICK SMITH HOLDINGS LIMITED, ANCHORAGE CAPITAL PARTNERS PTY LTD, INVESTORS MUTUAL LIMITED, AUTOSPORTS GROUP LIMITED – ASX ASG