K: Financial and Insurance Services

Investors to get lead on smart play for May

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Original article by Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 3-May-16

The Australian sharemarket gained 3.3 per cent in April 2016, but historical analysis shows that it has lost ground in the month of May in six of the last eleven years. A number of factors may influence the direction of the sharemarket in May, including the release of interim financial results in the banking sector, the outlook for commodity prices and the outcome of the Reserve Bank’s monthly monetary policy meeting.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, RIVKIN SECURITIES PTY LTD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, WATERMARK FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD

Pressure on dividends in bank earnings

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Original article by Clancy Yeates
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 16 : 2-May-16

The earnings and dividend payouts of Australia’s four major banks will come under scrutiny in the first week of May 2016, with three set to release their half-year results. Westpac is tipped to post an interim net profit of at least $A4bn, while the ANZ Bank and National Australia Bank are expected to report half-year profits of about $A3.58bn and $A3.34bn respectively. Hugh Dive of Aurora Funds Management says NAB is the most likely to reduce its dividend payout, although Mark Nathan of Arnhem Asset Management believes that all four major banks will leave dividends unchanged in the near-term.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AURORA FUNDS MANAGEMENT LIMITED, ARNHEM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CLSA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, WATERMARK FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, DICK SMITH HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX DSH, ARRIUM LIMITED – ASX ARI, PEABODY ENERGY CORPORATION

Traders kiss goodbye to Aussie’s high hopes

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Original article by Stephen Cauchi
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 29-Apr-16

The Australian dollar has retreated from recent highs after the latest inflation data showed that the CPI fell by 0.2 per cent in the March 2016 quarter. Currency traders now do not expect the currency to test the $US0.80 level in the near-term, while the inflation data has also heightened expectations of further monetary policy easing. However, currency strategists are divided about the outlook for the dollar, with year-end forecasts ranging from $A0.70 to $A0.78.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MARKET ECONOMICS PTY LTD, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, THINKFOREX

Business Confidence jumps again in April – up 7.4pts to 123.1

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Apr-16

A Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey has found that Australian business confidence rose by 7.4 points (or 6.4 per cent) to 123.1 in April 2016. Business confidence has now risen 12.5 points over the last three months, since a 2016 low of 110.6 in January. The rise in Business Confidence comes after more improvement on the Australian sharemarket in April, and as commodity prices rebounded in recent months following increased global stimulus. The level of business confidence in April is clearly positive for the economy overall and is now above the five-year average of 116.8. The strongest indicators in April relate to the upcoming year, with expectations of business performance over the next 12 months (+38.1) and whether the next 12 months will be a "good/bad time to invest" (+26.3).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES INDEX, AUSTRALIAN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION COMMISSION

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence dips to 111.7

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 27-Apr-16

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating for Australia fell 3.5 per cent to 111.7 in the week ended 24 April 2016, reversing the bounce in the previous week and falling back below its long run average. Consumers’ views towards their current personal finances fell by 3.3 per cent, although consumers’ views towards their future personal situation rose by 1.3 per cent. Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan says the fall in consumer confidence can be attributed to the economic uncertainty over the closure of Arrium and Electrolux, and continuing announcements of redundancies at several companies, and is also not surprising when one considers the pressures on the Australian economy – many of these issues are exacerbated by the Reserve Bank’s insistence on keeping interest rates much higher (currently at 2 per cent) than comparable commodity economies.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Dollar overvaluation won’t provoke rate cut, says NAB

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Original article by Jessica Sier, Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 27-Apr-16

The Australian dollar has risen by more than 12 per cent since mid-January 2016. National Australia Bank’s Rodrigo Catril says the currency may be approaching previous levels at which the Reserve Bank had expressed "discomfort". The central bank responded to these concerns by reducing the cash rate, but NAB does not believe that the dollar’s current level will be sufficiently high for the RBA to cut interest rates in May. The latest inflation and jobs data will also influence the RBA’s monetary policy decision.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BLOOMBERG LP, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, OANDA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

IPOs reward wary investors

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Original article by Michael Bennet
The Australian – Page: 20 : 26-Apr-16

Some 13 companies debuted on the Australian sharemarket in the March 2016 quarter, with a total capitalisation of $A796m. A report from Deloitte notes that the 12 IPOs during the same period in 2015 were worth a combined $A754m. Meanwhile, new IPOs in the first quarter of 2016 posted an average gain of 7.6 per cent, while the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 shed four per cent. Afterpay, StatePlus and Reliance Worldwide Corporation are among the companies that are currently considering an IPO.

CORPORATES
DELOITTE TOUCHE TOHMATSU LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, AFTERPAY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX AFY, STATEPLUS, RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX RWC, BRAVURA SOLUTIONS LIMITED, SCOTTISH PACIFIC BUSINESS FINANCE PTY LTD, FASTACASH, CAMPERDOWN DAIRY INTERNATIONAL, DICK SMITH HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX DSH, DEALOGIC (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, ONEVIEW HEALTHCARE PLC – ASX ONE, DING SHENG XIN FINANCE COMPANY LIMITED – ASX DXF, WISETECH GLOBAL LIMITED – ASX WTC, GLOBAL FORTUNE INVESTMENT LIMITED – ASX GFI, JC INTERNATIONAL GROUP LIMITED – ASX JCI, CADENCE ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, CITIBANK PTY LTD, THOMSON REUTERS PLC, McGRATH LIMITED – ASX MEA, SPOTLESS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX SPO

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence Rebounds – up 3.8pts to 115.8

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Original article by Gary Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Apr-16

The 3.8 points increase in Consumer Confidence to 115.8 today has been driven by improving sentiment towards the Australian economy, with 31% (up 3ppts) of Australians expecting "good times" for the Australian economy over the next 12 months and 34% (up 3ppts) of Australians expecting "good times" for the Australian economy over the next five years. In addition, a majority of Australians (53%, up 5ppts) say now is a "good time to buy" major household items. The increase is good news for the L-NP Government, however the latest Morgan Poll released yesterday shows the L-NP 50% (down 2.5%) cf. ALP 50% (up 2.5%) in mid-April and the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has plunged to its lowest point since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister – now at 99 (down 7pts). In addition, last week’s fall in the ABS unemployment rate sounds good but it is in fact misleading as the ABS consistently underestimates the real level of unemployment in the Australian economy – now at 11.0% (1,422,000) in March according to the latest Roy Morgan real unemployment estimates.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Banks, property still the top investment picks

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Original article by Simon Evans
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 20-Apr-16

The Australian sharemarket has been trading within a range of 4,900 to 5,200 points in recent months. However, VISIS Private Wealth’s Chris Smith argues that investors should be focusing on the outlook for the market in the next 3-5 years, rather than its short-term performance. Smith says the nation’s four major banks should achieve good returns over the longer-term, while he is also upbeat about the long-term outlook for the residential and commercial property markets.

CORPORATES
VISIS PRIVATE WEALTH, STEPHAN STRATEGIC, RMIT UNIVERSITY, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Executives retain appetite for deals

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 18-Apr-16

A new report by law firm Herbert Smith Freehills and the research division of the Financial Times shows that takeovers remain on the agenda for many companies. The survey of senior executives found that 75 per cent of respondents who are based in Australia expect to pursue mergers and acquisitions in the next three years, although only 33 per cent expect to make acquisitions that will boost group revenue by at least five per cent.

CORPORATES
HERBERT SMITH FREEHILLS PTY LTD, FINANCIAL TIMES GROUP, DEALOGIC (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, ASCIANO LIMITED – ASX AIO, CBH LIMITED, INTRALINKS INCORPORATED