K: Financial and Insurance Services

Rate cut to avoid poll date as economy becomes battleground

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 19 & 29 : 12-Apr-19

Financial markets have priced in a 25 basis point reduction in official interest rates by October, although the chances of a rate cut during the federal election campaign are seen to be low. Meanwhile, Shane Oliver of AMP Capital says historical analysis shows that movements in global sharemarkets tend to have a bigger impact on the local bourse than the outcome of a federal election. However, he notes that Labor’s policies such as income tax and franking credit reforms may weigh on shares and the Australian dollar.

CORPORATES
AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX

Time for caution as US stocks due for pullback

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 11-Apr-19

The S&P 500 is trading close to its record high, having gained 23 per cent since late December 2018. A number of factors suggest that there could be a correction. The International Monetary Fund has again downgraded its forecast for global economic growth; the S&P 500 fell sharply after the IMF’s previous downgrade in October. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is now widely tipped to announce quantitative easing rather than quantitative tightening, while there is growing speculation that the Fed’s next interest rate move will be down rather than up.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, BLOOMBERG LP, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, JP MORGAN AND COMPANY INCORPORATED

S&P concerned big banks may lose support in a crisis

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Original article by James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 20 : 10-Apr-19

A report from S&P Global Ratings says the federal government is likely to remain "highly supportive" of Australia’s major banks in the event of a crisis. However, the ratings agency adds that there is a one-in-three chance that the government will change its position to "supportive" over the next two years. Any change in the government’s level of support for the major banks would most likely prompt their credit ratings to be downgraded, which in turn would increase their funding costs.

CORPORATES
S&P GLOBAL RATINGS, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, COUNCIL OF FINANCIAL REGULATORS

Margin pressures put squeeze on US outlook

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 10-Apr-19

The S&P 500 has gained 23 per cent since late December 2018, and it is close to a record high. However, some observers expect the S&P 500 to record year-on-year negative earnings growth in the March 2019 quarter, for the first time in about three years. Michael Wilson of Morgan Stanley and Tobias Levkovich of Citigroup are upbeat about the earnings outlook for the March quarter, but they are cautious about the outlook for the second half of 2019.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, MORGAN STANLEY AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

CBA’s Colonial buy cost shareholders $54b

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 9-Apr-19

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia paid $11 billion for Colonial in 2000, but fund manager Merlon Capital Partners contends that the purchase wasted over $50 billion in shareholder capital. Merlon argues that the CBA’s purchase of Colonial did not create value for its stockholders, and that it demonstrates the need for shareholders to have a greater say about large acquisitions. Merlon has previously been critical of AMP’s 2018 decision to sell its life insurance business.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, COLONIAL LIMITED, MERLON CAPITAL PARTNERS PTY LTD, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP

Satisfaction with industry funds increasing while total market satisfaction declines

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Apr-19

The latest findings from ‘The Roy Morgan Superannuation Satisfaction Report’ shows that industry funds improved their satisfaction rating by 0.9% points (to 62.1%) in the year to February 2019. Satisfaction with retail funds fell to 55.7% (down 3.5% points), and satisfaction with self-managed super funds was 73.4% (down 0.1%). The report shows that industry funds have higher satisfaction than retail funds across all balances. Over the last year, retail funds have shown declines in satisfaction at all levels, with the biggest decline being a drop of 14.3% for members with balances of less than $5,000. There was also an 8.0% point decline for those with balances of $700,000 or more. Meanwhile, of the 15 best performing industry and retail funds, Unisuper with a satisfaction rating of 71.2% was well ahead of second placed HESTA (68.3%) and Cbus (66.6%). The report is based on in-depth interviews conducted face-to-face with over 50,000 consumers per annum in their homes, including over 30,000 superannuation fund members.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, UNISUPER LIMITED, HEALTH EMPLOYEES’ SUPERANNUATION TRUST AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CONSTRUCTION AND BUILDING UNIONS’ SUPERANNUATION FUND

US stocks brace for grim reporting season

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Original article by Timothy Moore
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 8-Apr-19

Michael Wilson of Morgan Stanley expects the quarterly US reporting season to signal the start of an earnings recession. He says the March 2019 quarter is likely to be the first since the June 2015 quarter that the S&P 500 will record year-on-year negative earnings growth. The S&P 500 has gained 15.4 per cent so far in 2019, closing at 2,892.74 points on 5 April. Morgan Stanley expects it to end 2018 at 2,750 points, while Capital Economics forecasts that it will reach a 2019 low of just 2,300 points.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, MORGAN STANLEY AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, FACTSET RESEARCH SYSTEMS INCORPORATED, CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION, JP MORGAN AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, WELLS FARGO AND COMPANY, THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCORPORATED

ANZ set for growth as it turns corner in Asia

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Original article by James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 & 20 : 5-Apr-19

The ANZ Bank has been progressively rebuilding its institutional banking business in Asia, which has been its key focus in the region since abandoning retail banking growth plans. ANZ now boasts about 6,500 institutional customers in Asia, compared with some 28,000 at its peak, while staff numbers in the region have been reduced from 8,000 to 6,000 and there was a 16 per cent reduction in costs during 2017-18.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, HSBC HOLDINGS PLC, STANDARD CHARTERED BANK PLC, CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, GREENWICH ASSOCIATES PTY LTD

Market backs rate cuts over fiscal stimulus

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Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 4-Apr-19

The April 2019 Budget has not had much impact on monetary policy expectations, with financial markets still pricing in two interest rate cuts by August 2020. Sally Auld of JP Morgan says the Budget’s fiscal stimulus measures are unlikely to completely offset the impact of factors such as the downturn in housing prices, slowing construction activity and weak growth in real incomes. Meanwhile, economists are more bearish about the economic growth outlook than the Treasury.

CORPORATES
JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Interest rates on hold, but cuts on the cards

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 47 : 3-Apr-19

The Reserve Bank of Australia has signalled that it remains open to monetary policy stimulus if economic conditions justify such action, while keeping the cash unchanged at 1.5 per cent for a 32nd consecutive month. Central bank governor Philip Lowe has also noted a slowdown in global economic growth and an increase in downside risks. Marcel Thieliant of Capital Economics expects official interest rates to be reduced in the near-term.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB