O75 Public Administration

Pens poised to sign on stalled EU trade deal

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 18-Mar-26

There is growing expectation that Australia and the European Union will shortly finalise a much-anticipated free-trade deal. Trade Minister Don Farrell held online talks with his EU counterpart Maros Sefcovic overnight to discuss outstanding issues, and he has expressed confidence that a deal can be struck that is in Australia’s national interest. The European Commissio’s president Ursula von der Leyen is expected to travel to Australia as soon as next week to finalise the deal. Negotiations for a free-trade deal begin in 2018, but stalled in 2023.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE

Overall Australian unemployment and under-employment at 3.61 million in February; Real Unemployment at 1.72 million

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Mar-26

In February 2026, Australian ‘real’ unemployment fell 97,000 to 1,721,000 (10.6% of the workforce, down 0.6%), although under-employment surged 216,000 to a record high of 1,892,000 (up 1.3% to 11.6%). In total, 3.61 million Australians (22.2% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in February. Roy Morgan estimates the overall workforce size (which adds together the employed and unemployed) at a record high just above 16.2 million in February – 16,263,000 to be exact, up 51,000 on a month ago, and representing 69.8% of Australians aged 14+. Employment increased by 148,000 to 14,542,000; driving the increase was a rise in part-time employment (up 169,000 to 5,242,000), while full-time employment fell 21,000 to 9,300,000.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Roy Morgan Business Confidence plunged 8.8pts to 88.6 in February – before the conflict in the Middle East even began

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Mar-26

IIn February 2026, Roy Morgan Business Confidence plunged 8.8pts to 88.6, its lowest level since September 2020 during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Business Confidence has now dropped by 16.4pts in the last two months, the largest two-month fall since August 2021. The result came after the Reserve Bank raised interest rates to 3.85% in early February, its first interest rate increase since November 2023. It is important to note that this result for Business Confidence came before the Israeli and US attacks on Iran which began on the final day of February and have already sent oil and gas prices soaring. Business Confidence is now 20pts below the long-term average of 109.6, and down 19.9 points from a year ago. Now 24.7% (down 2.5ppts) of respondents say their business is ‘better off’ financially than a year ago, while 41.3% (up 11.6ppts) say the business is ‘worse off’ (the highest figure for this indicator since September 2024). Just 37.1% (up 3.8ppts) of respondents expect the business to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 24.8% (up 0.4ppts) expect the business to be ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 33.8% (down 1.1ppts) of respondents say the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest’ in growing the business, while 41% (up 4.1ppts) say the next 12 months will be a ‘bad time to invest’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

RBA delivers recession warning

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Original article by Lea Jurkovic
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 18-Mar-26

The latest official interest rate increase will put further on the federal government ahead of the budget in May. Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the Australian economy was already facing an inflation challenge, and the Iran war has made this harder. Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock has warned that a recession is a possibility if inflation is not reined in; she has also emphasised the need to clamp down on inflation before it spreads across the economy. Bullock adds that inflation was already too high before the rise in petrol prices due to the war, and the cost of petrol was not the reason for the rate increase. The RBA’s monetary policy board voted 5-4 to increase the cash rate on Tuesday, and Bullock says the board’s split was in relation to the timing of a rate increase rather than the need for one.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA,AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 4.9 points to 68.5 – lowest Consumer Confidence since start of pandemic

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Mar-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 4.9 points to 68.5 in the week to 15 March; it is now 15.3pts lower than a year ago (83.8), and 9.7pts below the 2026 weekly average of 78.2. The only occasion Consumer Confidence was lower was the weekend of 28-29 March 2020, at the very start of the COVID-19 pandemic when widespread lockdowns were first introduced. Analysis by State shows Consumer Confidence falling in most States, including New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, and Western Australia, but up slightly in Victoria. Now 15% of Australians (down 3ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 52% (up 5ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ (this is the lowest net result for this indicator since December 2023). Looking forward, 21% (up 1ppt) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 43% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the highest figure for this indicator since August 1989). Only 5% (down 1ppt) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the lowest figure for this indicator since June 2023), while 49% (up 7ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the highest figure for this indicator since August 2020). Meanwhile, 16% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the lowest figure for this indicator since April 2020), while 47% (up 4ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the highest figure for this indicator since January 2025).

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED,AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Crisis needs recall of national cabinet

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Original article by Sarah Ison,Eli Greenblat
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 18-Mar-26

The federal government is under pressure to convene an emergency meeting of the national cabinet amid growing concern about fuel supply. Minerals Council of Australia CEO Tania Constable says action is needed to ensure that fuel is available in regional areas; she notes that in addition to farmers, industries such as mining and fishing also need fuel. The Australian Trucking Association’s policy director Bill McKinley in turn says the average diesel price has increased by more than $0.80 per litre since the Iran war started, and trucking firms "cannot keep going the way they’re going". The Australian Institute of Petroleum has warned that oil companies are already seeking alternative countries from which to import fuel, which will cost a lot more.

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MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA,AUSTRALIAN TRUCKING ASSOCIATION LIMITED,AUSTRALIAN INSTITUTE OF PETROLEUM LIMITED

‘We don’t need anyone’s help’: Trump lashes out at NATO allies, Australia over Iran war

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Original article by Michael Koziol
The Age – Page: Online : 18-Mar-26

US President Donald Trump has previously asked other countries – including NATO allies – to deploy warships to the Strait of Hormuz to help ensure safe passage of oil tankers. However, Trump has now claimed via his Truth Social platform that due to America’s military success in the Iran war, it no longer wants or needs the assistance of NATO countries. Trump specifically mention Australia among a list of countries that the US no longer requires assistance from, although Transport Minister Catherine King has previously stated that the federal government did not receive any request from the Trump administration. Meanwhile, Joe Kent has resigned as the director of the National Counterterrorism Centre, saying he could not "in good conscience" support the war; he was appointed to the role by Trump, who says Kent was "very weak on security" and "it’s a good thing that he’s out".

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UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT,NORTH ATLANTIC TREATY ORGANISATION,AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INFRASTRUCTURE, TRANSPORT, REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT, COMMUNICATIONS AND THE ARTS

Federal Voting Intention: ALP and L-NP Coalition lose primary support while Greens and One Nation gain support after Middle East conflict starts

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Mar-26

The first Roy Morgan Poll taken after the conflict in the Middle East began shows support for both the ALP down 4% to 26.5% and the Coalition down 1% to 22.5%. The Greens gained 3% to 14.5% and One Nation was up 1.5% to 23.5% – and ahead of the Coalition. 13% support Independents and Other Parties, according to interviewing conducted from March 2-8 with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,532 electors. In times of global unrest, the usual response of the electorate is to swing to the Government, although this hasn’t happened so far in the early stages of the Iran War. The rise in support for the Greens is likely because the Greens are the only major political party to take a stand against the US and Israeli strikes in the Middle East, and this support has come straight from people previously supporting the ALP. A look at the results by gender and age show the picture is complicated with the ALP losing primary support of men and women, and the Greens and One Nation gaining support of men and women. Analysis by age shows the ALP losing support in every age group, mostly to the Greens. For people aged 18-24 though, ALP support went to One Nation and Independents/Other Parties and the Greens lost support. One Nation gained support in all age groups under 65. Based on how electors said they would ‘vote’, ALP is 54.5% well ahead of Coalition 45.5%. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with a clear majority under either methodology.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 3.7 points to 73.4 following launch of US and Israeli attacks on Iran

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Mar-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.7 points to 73.4 in the week to 8 March; it is now 13.5pts lower than a year ago (86.9), and 5.8pts below the 2026 weekly average of 79.2. Analysis by State shows Consumer Confidence falling in most States including in Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia, but up in New South Wales. Now 18% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 47% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 20% (down 1ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 43% (up 6ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 6% (down 1ppts) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 42% (up 5ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 18% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 43% (up 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Workplace laws reset for AI job losses: union

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 6 : 11-Mar-26

The Australian Services Union has urged a "fundamental reset of workplace laws to protect workers’ time". The ASU has used its submission to an inquiry into the National Employment Standards to call for employees who lose their job due to artificial intelligence to be given at least six months’ paid notice; it contends that this would give them time to upskill, train for new roles within their organisation or look for a new job. The union has also called for the maximum working week to be set at 30.4 hours over four days, with no loss of pay.

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AUSTRALIAN SERVICES UNION