O75 Public Administration

Federal Voting Intention: ALP and L-NP Coalition lose primary support while Greens and One Nation gain support after Middle East conflict starts

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Mar-26

The first Roy Morgan Poll taken after the conflict in the Middle East began shows support for both the ALP down 4% to 26.5% and the Coalition down 1% to 22.5%. The Greens gained 3% to 14.5% and One Nation was up 1.5% to 23.5% – and ahead of the Coalition. 13% support Independents and Other Parties, according to interviewing conducted from March 2-8 with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,532 electors. In times of global unrest, the usual response of the electorate is to swing to the Government, although this hasn’t happened so far in the early stages of the Iran War. The rise in support for the Greens is likely because the Greens are the only major political party to take a stand against the US and Israeli strikes in the Middle East, and this support has come straight from people previously supporting the ALP. A look at the results by gender and age show the picture is complicated with the ALP losing primary support of men and women, and the Greens and One Nation gaining support of men and women. Analysis by age shows the ALP losing support in every age group, mostly to the Greens. For people aged 18-24 though, ALP support went to One Nation and Independents/Other Parties and the Greens lost support. One Nation gained support in all age groups under 65. Based on how electors said they would ‘vote’, ALP is 54.5% well ahead of Coalition 45.5%. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with a clear majority under either methodology.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 3.7 points to 73.4 following launch of US and Israeli attacks on Iran

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Mar-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.7 points to 73.4 in the week to 8 March; it is now 13.5pts lower than a year ago (86.9), and 5.8pts below the 2026 weekly average of 79.2. Analysis by State shows Consumer Confidence falling in most States including in Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia, but up in New South Wales. Now 18% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 47% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 20% (down 1ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 43% (up 6ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 6% (down 1ppts) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 42% (up 5ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 18% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 43% (up 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Workplace laws reset for AI job losses: union

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 6 : 11-Mar-26

The Australian Services Union has urged a "fundamental reset of workplace laws to protect workers’ time". The ASU has used its submission to an inquiry into the National Employment Standards to call for employees who lose their job due to artificial intelligence to be given at least six months’ paid notice; it contends that this would give them time to upskill, train for new roles within their organisation or look for a new job. The union has also called for the maximum working week to be set at 30.4 hours over four days, with no loss of pay.

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AUSTRALIAN SERVICES UNION

Three vie to replace Nationals leader

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Original article by Greg Brown, Rosie Lewis
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 11-Mar-26

Sources within the National Party have indicated that Matt Canavan, Bridget McKenzie and Kevin Hogan will contest the leadership at a special partyroom meeting today. Outgoing leader David Littleproud surprised most of his colleagues on Tuesday, announcing his intention to step aside because he is "buggered" and has had enough. Littleproud added that he has been a "human punching bag" for the last several months and at some point "you have to look after yourself". The Coalition briefly split on two separate occasions during Littleproud’s tenure, while Barnaby Joyce defected to One Nation and Jacinta Nampijinpa Price switched to the Liberal partyroom. Littleproud intends to remain in parliament.

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NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, ONE NATION PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Australia drawn further into Gulf conflict

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 14 : 11-Mar-26

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says the federal government’s deployment of an early-warning aircraft and 85 defence personnel to the Middle East is solely a defensive measure. He has emphasised that it is aimed at supporting Australians who are still in the region, and to help the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf nations to defend themselves against "unprovoked" attacks from Iran. Opposition leader Angus Taylor has backed the deployment, emphasising the need to "stand together" against regimes that do not accept Australia’s values and the nation’s way of life. The government will also supply an undisclosed number of medium-range air-to-air missiles to the UAE.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Spending surges higher than expected

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 6 : 4-Mar-26

The Australian Bureau of Statistics expects an 0.9 per cent increase in public sector demand in the December quarter to contribute 0.3 percentage points to GDP for the period. Public demand, which comprises all federal, state and local government spending and investment, totalled $198bn in the three months to December. Citigroup’s chief economist Joshua Williamson expects GDP growth of one per cent for the December quarter following stronger-than-expected public sector demand. Some economists anticipate annual GDP growth of up to 2.7 per cent in data to be released today.

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AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

Unions demand five weeks of annual leave

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 1 & 7 : 4-Mar-26

The ACTU will lobby the federal government to increase full-time workers’ annual leave entitlements to five weeks a year. ACTU secretary Sally McManus contends that Australians already do an average of 4.5 weeks of unpaid work every year, and getting back one of these weeks will result in a better rested and happier workforce. She adds that the current standard of four weeks’ annual leave for full-time workers has not changed since it was introduced in 1974. The ACTU also wants regular shift workers’ annual leave to be increased from five weeks to six, and an increase in the casual loading from 25 per cent to 27.5 per cent to compensate people who do not receive annual leave.

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ACTU

Middle East war could be decided by who runs out of missiles or interceptors first, analysts say

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Original article by Jason Burke
The Guardian – Page: Online : 4-Mar-26

Iran has launched retaliatory airstrikes against Persian Gulf nations such as Qatar, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Bahrain since the joint US-Israel attacks began. Stacie Pettyjohn, from the Center for a New American Security based in Washington, DC says the Iran conflict has become "a bit of a salvo competition", and the duration of the war may depend on the size of the combatants’ weapons arsenal. Pettyjohn adds that the extent of Iran’s stockpile is the "big unknown". Tal Inbar from the Missile Defence Advisory Alliance in turn notes that the duration of previous wars has been partly determined by the number of air defence missiles each country had.

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CENTER FOR A NEW AMERICAN SECURITY, MISSILE DEFENCE ADVISORY ALLIANCE

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 3.1 points to 77.1 driven by falling confidence about the economy

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Mar-26

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.1 points to 77.1 in the week to 1 March; it is now 10.6pts lower than a year ago (87.7), and 2.9pts below the 2026 weekly average of 80.0. Analysis by State shows Consumer Confidence falling in most States, including New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia, but up in Western Australia. Now 17% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 45% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 21% (down 3ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 37% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 7% (down 2ppts) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 37% (up 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 19% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 40% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

War cost to Aussie hip pockets

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Original article by Greg Brown, Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 4-Mar-26

The Treasury has advised the federal government that the initial rise in oil prices following the airstrikes on Iran could increase Australia’s inflation rate by 0.15 per cent. Treasury also stated that inflation may rise by about 0.26 per cent if the conflict lasts for 18 months, and warned that any damage to gas production infrastructure in Qatar – which accounts for 20 per cent of global supply – would add to domestic inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, Resources Minister Madeleine King says Australia’s gas market is in a better position to absorb the impacts of the war in the Middle East than in 2022, when the invasion of Ukraine caused a surge in gas prices. Meanwhile, Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock says the war could result in higher interest rates, noting that inflation is already elevated.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, SCIENCE AND RESOURCES