O75 Public Administration

Purge of consultants heralds public service jobs boom

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Original article by David Ross
The Australian – Page: 11 : 15-May-24

The number of federal public servants has increased from 173,142 to more than 197,000 since Labor took office in May 2022. The budget papers show that the number of public servants is forecast to rise by 12,042 over the next year, while this is on track to be 36,000 higher than in 2021-22. The growth in public service numbers is at least partly due to the government’s push to reduce the cost of using external consultants, with thousands of these roles to be converted into in-house positions.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Labor splashes billions on cost of living relief

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Original article by Geoff Chambers
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 15-May-24

The 2024 budget papers show that the federal government expects to post a surplus of $9.3bn for 2023-24. However, there will be a combined budget deficit of $122bn over the forward estimates period. Meanwhile, the budget features $7.8bn of new spending on cost-of-living relief, headlined by a $3.5bn energy rebate; this will provide every household with a $300 credit on their electricity bill, to be paid in four quarterly instalments. Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the cost-of-living measures will reduce the inflation rate by 0.75 of a percentage point in 2024 and 0.5 per cent in 2025. The Treasury expects inflation to fall to 3.5 per cent by June and 2.75 per cent by mid-2025.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Jewish hate speech surge alarms PM

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Original article by Joe Kelly
The Australian – Page: 2 : 14-May-24

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese addressed a pre-budget meeting of Labor’s caucus on Monday. He praised the performance of Foreign Minister Penny Wong in responding to the Israel-Hamas war and reiterated his government’s support for a two-state solution. Albanese also acknowledged the growing issue of anti-Semitism in Australia; responding to a question from senator Deborah O’Neill, he said that hostility towards Jewish people is at the highest level that he has seen in his lifetime. The government is also continuing to attract scrutiny over its controversial decision to support a United Nations motion on Palestine.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Cost-of-living handouts that bust inflation a trick

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Original article by Patrick Commins, Joe Kelly
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 14-May-24

The federal government has confirmed that the 2024 budget will feature measures to combat inflation and the cost-of-living crisis, including electricity bill rebates and rental assistance. However, former Reserve Bank of Australia board member Warwick McKibbin contends that using government subsidies to combat inflation is a "political trick" that will not address underlying price pressures in the economy. McKibbin has also questioned the Treasury’s forecast that inflation will return to the RBA’s target range of 2-3 per cent by the end of 2024. He adds that the Treasury and the RBA have underestimated the inflationary impact of the revised stage-three personal income tax cuts that take effect on 1 July.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Australian unemployment increases in April to 9.7% – overall labour under-utilisation at highest since October 2020

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-May-24

In April 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment increased 177,000 to 1,535,000 (up 1% to 9.7% of the workforce) despite overall employment remaining near its all-time high at over 14.2 million. In addition to the increase in unemployment, there was also a slight increase in under-employment, up 18,000 to 1,594,000. These combined increases mean a massive 3.13 million Australians (19.8% of the workforce, up 1%) were unemployed or under-employed in April – the highest level of total labour under-utilisation for over three years since October 2020 (3.15 million) during the early months of the pandemic. In April 1,535,000 Australians were unemployed (9.7% of the workforce, up 1%), an increase of 177,000 from March driven by more people looking for both full-time and part-time work. There were 669,000 (up 74,000) looking for full-time work and 866,000 (up 103,000) looking for part-time work.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says total Australian unemployment or under-employment has increased to its highest in over three years at 3.13 million in April

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-May-24

The Roy Morgan employment estimates for April show total Australian unemployment or under-employment has increased 195,000 to 3,129,000 (19.8% of the workforce, up 1%). ‘Real’ unemployment increased 177,000 to 1,535,000 (9.7%) and under-employment increased 18,000 to 1,594,000 (10.1%). The increase means overall labour under-utilisation is at its highest for over three years since October 2020 (3.15 million). The labour force has experienced rapid change over the last year with a large increase in population (+717,000) – a rate almost three times higher than the average annual population growth over the last 25 years of 287,000. This population increase has been the driver of a growing workforce, up by 667,000. However, the figures show although new jobs are being created, there are not enough jobs being created to soak up the 667,000 people who joined the workforce over the last year and increasing numbers of Australians are becoming unemployed or under-employed.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Surplus of $9.3b, then a sea of red ink

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 14-May-24

The federal government is set to announce a budget surplus of $9.3bn for 2023-24, having previously forecast a deficit of $1.1bn in the mid-year economic and fiscal outlook in December. It will be only the second successive budget surplus since the global financial crisis; however, this will be followed by large deficits over the forward estimates period, which the government has attributed to "unavoidable spending". Meanwhile, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says it will be "a Labor budget through and through", with cost-of-living relief that will reduce rather than increase inflation and a tax cut for every worker.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

ALP maintains election winning lead over Coalition for a fourth straight week before Federal Budget is delivered: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-May-24

The Albanese Labor Government has retained the lead for the fourth week in a row with support on 52% (unchanged) ahead of the Coalition on 48% (unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis before Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivers this week’s pre-election Federal Budget. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be re-elected with a slim majority as they have now, the latest Roy Morgan survey shows. Although the overall two-party preferred result was unchanged, primary support for the ALP increased 2% to 32% this week but is still well behind the Coalition, unchanged on 37%. Looking at the minor parties, support for the Greens increased 0.5% to 13.5% and support for One Nation was down 0.5% to 5.5%. Support for Independents was down 1% to 7.5% and support for Other Parties was down 1% to 4.5%. The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,654 Australian electors from May 6-12, 2024. When comparing different polls it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

Four-day week for Woolworths workers

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 3 : 8-May-24

The Shop, Distributive & Allied Employees’ Association has backed a proposal to enshrine the right to a four-day working week in a new enterprise agreement for Woolworths employees. The proposed deal would allow full-time staff to compress their 38-hour working week into four shifts comprising 9.5 hours each. Bernie Smith from the SDA says staff who opt for a four-day week would be required to work up to four weekend shifts over a four-week period. The enterprise agreement will cover about 130,000 workers, who will vote on the proposed deal in coming weeks.

CORPORATES
WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED – ASX WOW, SHOP, DISTRIBUTIVE AND ALLIED EMPLOYEES’ ASSOCIATION

Roy Morgan Business Confidence improves marginally in April – up 1.3pts to 99.3 before next week’s pre-election Federal Budget

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-May-24

In April 2024, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 99.3 (up 1.3pts since March 2024), marginally below the neutral level of 100. Business Confidence is now 11.9pts below the long-term average of 111.2; however, Business Confidence is up 9.1pts since March 2023. Now 52.1% (up 8.2ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the economy over the next year, while 44% (down 10.3ppts) expect ‘bad times’ – the best results for these indicators since April 2022. In contrast, a record low proportion of businesses, 29.3% (down 9.6ppts) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next five years, while 60.5% (up 6.4ppts) expect ‘bad times’ over the longer-term. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for April are based on 1,986 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED