O75 Public Administration

Roy Morgan Business Confidence improves marginally in April – up 1.3pts to 99.3 before next week’s pre-election Federal Budget

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-May-24

In April 2024, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 99.3 (up 1.3pts since March 2024), marginally below the neutral level of 100. Business Confidence is now 11.9pts below the long-term average of 111.2; however, Business Confidence is up 9.1pts since March 2023. Now 52.1% (up 8.2ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the economy over the next year, while 44% (down 10.3ppts) expect ‘bad times’ – the best results for these indicators since April 2022. In contrast, a record low proportion of businesses, 29.3% (down 9.6ppts) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next five years, while 60.5% (up 6.4ppts) expect ‘bad times’ over the longer-term. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for April are based on 1,986 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Bullock’s red flag on inflation

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 8-May-24

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock says she is "alert and vigilant" to the risk of inflation staying too high for too long. The RBA left the cash rate on hold at 4.35 per cent on Tuesday, and Bullock says the RBA board believes that it is at the right level to return inflation to the target range of 2-3 per cent in 2025. However, Bullock adds that doing so is likely to be a bumpy ride, while she has flagged the possibility of further interest rate increases if services inflation remains above the central bank’s target range. Meanwhile, Bullock has emphasised the need for Treasurer Jim Chalmers to ensure that the budget on 14 May is not inflationary.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Vic ratings warning over debt

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Original article by Gus McCubbing, Patrick Durkin
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 8-May-24

The Victorian government’s budget papers show that it expects to post an operating surplus of $1.5bn in 2025-26. However, the state’s net debt is forecast to rise from $156.2bn in mid-2025 to $187.8bn by 2028. S&P Global Ratings analyst Anthony Walker says the firm expects Victoria’s gross debt as a proportion of revenue to rise above 200 per cent of operating revenue. He warns that the state’s credit rating could be downgraded again if its debt rises to 240 per cent of operating revenue or interest payments rise to 10 per cent of operating revenue. Meanwhile, interest payments on the state’s debt will rise from $6.5bn in 2024-25 to $9.4bn by 2028, and interest as a share of revenue is forecast to rise from 6.3 per cent to 8.8 per cent.

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S&P GLOBAL RATINGS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 0.6 points to 80.5 before the Reserve Bank meets on interest rates

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-May-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 0.6pts to 80.5 in the week to 5 May. The index has now spent a record 66 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is 2.8 points above the same week a year ago (77.7), but 2.1 points below the 2024 weekly average of 82.6. Consumer Confidence was down significantly in Victoria, but up slightly in New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. Now 20% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 51% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 32% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 9% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 35% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 21% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 49% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ALP maintains election winning lead over Coalition in early May for third straight week: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-May-24

The Albanese Labor Government has retained the lead for the third week in a row with support unchanged on 52%, ahead of the Coalition on 48% (also unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be re-elected with a slim majority as they have now, the latest Roy Morgan survey shows. Despite a clear election winning lead, primary support for the ALP dipped 1.5% to 30% this week. The news early last week that a grandmother in Perth had been bashed in a home invasion by a freed immigration detainee put further pressure on the government’s policy on immigration detention over the week. Support for the Coalition increased 0.5% to 37% while support for the Greens dropped 1% to 13%. Looking at the minor parties, support for One Nation was up 0.5% to 6%. Support for Independents was up 0.5% to 8.5% and support for Other Parties was up 1% to 5.5%. The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,666 Australian electors from April 29 to May 5. Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by CEO Michele Levine.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

Canberra cash critical for offshore wind energy’s future

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Original article by Rachel Baxendale
The Australian – Page: 6 : 7-May-24

Victorian is seeking to generate 2GW of electricity from offshore wind by 2032 and as much as 9GW by 2040, as part of its renewable energy target of 95 per cent by 2035. The state government has announced that it is on track for its first offshore wind auction in 2025, while Victorian Energy Minister Lily’Ambrosio has stated that federal government funding is essential to Victoria’s goal of an offshore wind industry. However, energy market expert David Leitch does not think Victoria is the ideal location for renewable energy, and that it may need to become a net importer of renewable energy that has been generated in other states.

CORPORATES
VICTORIA. DEPT OF ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE ACTION

Chalmers to fight inflation, then spend

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Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 7-May-24

The federal government’s budget on 14 May will show that Australia’s gross debt has risen to $904bn in 2023-24; this is about $152bn lower than was forecast ahead of the 2022 federal election. However, the nation’s debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise from 33.7 per cent in the current financial year to 35.1 per cent by 2025-26. Meanwhile, Treasurer Jim Chalmers has signalled that combating inflation will be the key focus of the 2024 budget, while he has flagged an increase in government spending over the forward estimates period.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Hamas accepts Gaza ceasefire proposal as Israel strikes Rafah

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Original article by Sam Mednick, Josef Federman, Bassem Mroue
The Australian Financial Review – Page: Online : 7-May-24

Hamas has confirmed that it will accept a ceasefire proposal that is being brokered by mediators Qatar and Egypt in the latest attempt to end the war with Israel. Details of the proposed ceasefire have not been disclosed, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says it does not meet his nation’s essential demands; however, Netanyahu has indicated that he will send negotiators to continue talks on the deal. Meanwhile, the Israeli Defense Forces have confirmed that "targeted strikes" have begun in the southern Gaza town of Rafah, where about 1.4 million Palestinians have sought refuge. Israel advised people in Rafah to evacuate the town ahead of the military operation.

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Chalmers to fight inflation, then spend

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Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 7-May-24

The federal government’s budget on 14 May will show that Australia’s gross debt has risen to $904bn in 2023-24; this is about $152bn lower than was forecast ahead of the 2022 federal election. However, the nation’s debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise from 33.7 per cent in the current financial year to 35.1 per cent by 2025-26. Meanwhile, Treasurer Jim Chalmers has signalled that combating inflation will be the key focus of the 2024 budget, while he has flagged an increase in government spending over the forward estimates period.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Canberra cash critical for offshore wind energy’s future

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Original article by Rachel Baxendale
The Australian – Page: 6 : 7-May-24

Victorian is seeking to generate 2GW of electricity from offshore wind by 2032 and as much as 9GW by 2040, as part of its renewable energy target of 95 per cent by 2035. The state government has announced that it is on track for its first offshore wind auction in 2025, while Victorian Energy Minister Lily’Ambrosio has stated that federal government funding is essential to Victoria’s goal of an offshore wind industry. However, energy market expert David Leitch does not think Victoria is the ideal location for renewable energy, and that it may need to become a net importer of renewable energy that has been generated in other states.

CORPORATES
VICTORIA. DEPT OF ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE ACTION