O75 Public Administration

ALP maintains election winning lead over Coalition in early May for third straight week: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-May-24

The Albanese Labor Government has retained the lead for the third week in a row with support unchanged on 52%, ahead of the Coalition on 48% (also unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be re-elected with a slim majority as they have now, the latest Roy Morgan survey shows. Despite a clear election winning lead, primary support for the ALP dipped 1.5% to 30% this week. The news early last week that a grandmother in Perth had been bashed in a home invasion by a freed immigration detainee put further pressure on the government’s policy on immigration detention over the week. Support for the Coalition increased 0.5% to 37% while support for the Greens dropped 1% to 13%. Looking at the minor parties, support for One Nation was up 0.5% to 6%. Support for Independents was up 0.5% to 8.5% and support for Other Parties was up 1% to 5.5%. The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,666 Australian electors from April 29 to May 5. Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by CEO Michele Levine.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

Hamas accepts Gaza ceasefire proposal as Israel strikes Rafah

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Original article by Sam Mednick, Josef Federman, Bassem Mroue
The Australian Financial Review – Page: Online : 7-May-24

Hamas has confirmed that it will accept a ceasefire proposal that is being brokered by mediators Qatar and Egypt in the latest attempt to end the war with Israel. Details of the proposed ceasefire have not been disclosed, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says it does not meet his nation’s essential demands; however, Netanyahu has indicated that he will send negotiators to continue talks on the deal. Meanwhile, the Israeli Defense Forces have confirmed that "targeted strikes" have begun in the southern Gaza town of Rafah, where about 1.4 million Palestinians have sought refuge. Israel advised people in Rafah to evacuate the town ahead of the military operation.

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PM set to invest big in green hydrogen

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Original article by Sarah Ison, Rosie Lewis, Jess Malcolm
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 1-May-24

The federal government’s budget on 14 May is expected to include a significant investment in ‘green’ hydrogen. This is tipped to exceed the $2bn that Labor committed to its Hydrogen Headstart program in 2023. Clean Energy Council CEO Kane Thornton notes that the government considered that investment to be a "down payment" on its support for Australia’s nascent hydrogen industry. There is speculation that the government will provide the hydrogen industry with direct subsidies; the options under consideration are said to include a tax credit model and a reverse auction process.

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CLEAN ENERGY COUNCIL LIMITED

National/ ACT/ NZ First (53%) lead over Labour/ Greens/ Maori (43%) – cut to 10% points in April

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-May-24

Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for April 2024 shows the new National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) with a majority of 53% (down 3% points from March) , with a large lead over the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 43% (up 2.5% points). Support for National was down 1.5% to 36.5%, support for ACT decreased 0.5% points to 11% and support for NZ First was down 1% to 5.5%. Support for Labour was up 1.5% to 24.5% while support for the Greens was down 0.5% to 13% and support for the Maori Party was up 1.5% points to 5.5%. A further 4% (up 0.5% points) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. The survey results for April would lead to 66 seats (down two seats from the election) being won by the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition, compared to only 54 seats (down one seat) for the Opposition. This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 934 electors from March 25 to April 21. Meanwhile, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased by 4.5pts to 85.5 in April.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, NATIONAL PARTY OF NEW ZEALAND, ACT NEW ZEALAND, NEW ZEALAND FIRST PARTY, LABOUR PARTY (NEW ZEALAND), GREEN PARTY OF AOTEAROA NEW ZEALAND, THE MAORI PARTY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increases 0.8 points to 81.1 in late April

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-May-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 0.8pts to 81.1 in the week to 28 April; however, the index has now spent a record 65 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now only 1.3 points above the same week a year ago (79.8), and 1.6 points below the 2024 weekly average of 82.7. Consumer Confidence was up in Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia, but down slightly in New South Wales and Queensland. Now 19% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 52% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 31% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 34% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now just 8% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the lowest figure for this indicator so far this year), while 33% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 21% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 47% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Labor’s plan to woo right investments

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 1-May-24

The federal government is set to overhaul the nation’s foreign investment rules, which will include fast-tracking applications from investors with a proven record of investing in Australia. The reforms will also result in closer scrutiny of proposed foreign investment deals that have national security implications, such as critical infrastructure and mineral resources. Treasurer Jim Chalmers will outline the proposed reforms in a Lowy Institute speech on Wednesday; he will also reveal more details of Labor’s flagship Future Made in Australia policy.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

$13b surplus tipped but Labor needs credible plan

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Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 1-May-24

Deloitte Access Economics expects the federal government to post a budget surplus of $13.4bn for 2023-24. The government itself had forecast a full-year deficit of $1.1bn in its mid-year economic and fiscal outlook in December. Deloitte says the budget bottom-line will be boosted by $14.5bn in additional company tax receipts and a $5.6bn increase in personal income tax revenue due to the strong labour market. Deloitte partner Stephen Smith says that while Labor is on track for a second successive budget surplus, this is unlikely to be repeated in 2024-25 due to the goverment’s spending plans. Smith adds that the Future Made in Australia policy could further undermine the budget position.

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DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD

Census changes to dilute religion

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Original article by Rhiannon Down, Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 3 : 30-Apr-24

Australian Catholic Bishops Conference president Timothy Costelloe has expressed concern about plans by the Australian Bureau of Statistics to make changes to census questions regarding religion. Accusing the ABS of including a "new bias in favour of no religion", Costelloe says the changes will lead to an increased number of invalid responses. The changes are also opposed by Anglican Bishop of South Sydney Michael Stead, who suggest they will produce less accurate data; he said his concern is that this data is often used by those who want to "champion the fact that Australia is becoming more and more secular and less and less ­religious".

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AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Mehreen Faruqi v Pauline Hanson: Greens senator tells court attacks on white people not racist

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Original article by Karen Middleton
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 30-Apr-24

Greens senator Mehreen Faruqi is suing One Nation senator Pauline Hanson over a social media post in which Hanson told Faruqi to "pack your bags and piss off back to Pakistan", with Faruqi describing the post as "the ultimate racist slur". Appearing as the first witness in the case on Monday, Faruqi was accused by Hanson’s lawyer, Sue Chrysanthou SC, of being a hypocrite, with Chrysanthou claiming Faruqi had made and endorsed racist remarks about white people. Faruqi denied that verbal attacks on white people are racist, claiming that racism is also about power and the use of that power to perpetrate racism and oppress people; she claimed that power in Australia is held by white people.

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AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

Brutal portrait of ALP’s detainee woes – and ministers go missing in action

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Original article by Geoff Chambers, Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 30-Apr-24

The federal government is under renewed scrutiny following revelations that a former immigration detainee participated in a home invasion in which a 73-year-old woman was brutually assaulted. It is alleged that Kuwait national Majid Jamshidi Doukoshkan was one of three men who robbed a Perth couple. He was released into the community in late 2023 after the High Court ruled that indefinite detention is unlawful. Doukoshkan was granted bail earlier in 2024 after being charged with two counts of breaching a curfew order. The Opposition has called on Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to sack Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil and Immigration Minister Andrew Giles if they refuse to accept responsibility for the detainee disaster.

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HIGH COURT OF AUSTRALIA