O75 Public Administration

Spending cuts must take heat off rates

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 30-Apr-24

Economists are calling on the federal government to cut net discretionary spending in its 14 May budget, contending that such spending is making it harder for the Reserve Bank to combat inflation. Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor and Coalition finance spokeswoman Jane Hume said on Monday that the government should "restore budget discipline" by reintroducing the Coalition’s 23.9 per cent tax-to-GDP cap. Treasurer Jim Chalmers responded by claiming that the Coalition is advocating cuts to spending.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

ALP maintains election winning lead over Coalition in late April: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Apr-24

The Albanese Labor Government has retained the lead for the second week in a row with support on 52% (unchanged) ahead of the Coalition on 48% (unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be re-elected with a slim majority as they have now, the latest Roy Morgan survey shows. Primary support for both major parties increased this week, at the expense of the Greens, with the ALP up 1% to 31.5% but still behind the Coalition, up 1% to 36.5%; support for the Greens dropped 2% to 14%. Looking at the minor parties, support for One Nation was unchanged at 5.5%. Support for Independents was up 0.5% to 8% and support for Other Parties was down 0.5% to 4.5%. The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,719 Australian electors from April 22-28. When comparing different polls it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls. Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by CEO Michele Levine

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

Morrison on meds: toll of top office laid bare

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Original article by Cameron Stewart
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 26-Apr-24

Former prime minister Scott Morrison has revealed that he experienced "debilitating and agonising" anxiety during much of his tenure in the nation’s top job. Morrison says his anxiety became increasingly acute as he steered the nation through challenges such as the COVID-19 pandemic and strained relations with China, and his doctor eventually prescribed medication to help him to cope with the medical condition. Morrison says the "unrelenting and callous" brutality of politics and media attacks contributed to his anxiety, but he acknowledges that this is the reality of politics.

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Australians flattened by biggest tax increase in world

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Original article by Shane Wright
The Sydney Morning Herald – Page: Online : 26-Apr-24

Data from the OECD shows that the amount of income tax paid by the average wage-earner in Australia rose by 7.6 per cent in 2023. New Zealand ranked second among developed nations with an average tax increase of 4.5 per cent. The OECD says the decision to phase out the low- and middle-income tax offset contributed to the sharp rise in Australians’ personal income tax bills in 2023-24. The temporary measure was part of the former Coalition government’s stage-three tax cuts package.

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ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT

Inflation means tax cuts could pose a risk

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Original article by Sarah Ison, Lydia Lynch
The Australian – Page: 6 : 26-Apr-24

AMP’s chief economist Shane Oliver says the higher-than-expected inflation data for the March quarter means the revised stage-three income tax cuts present a greater economic risk than when they were first announced. He contends that the tax cuts to be announced in the 14 May budget would have been less of a risk to the economy if inflation had been falling. Veteran economist Chris Richardson notes that it has been known for a long time that the tax cuts will be inflationary. Consumer prices rose by one per cent in the March quarter; this compares with economists’ expectations of 0.8 per cent growth, and the 0.6 per cent increase in the December quarter.

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AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP

RBA to increase cash rate to 5.1pc, says top forecaster

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 26-Apr-24

The consensus of economists is that the Reserve Bank of Australia will upgrade its near-term inflation forecast in May, following the release of the latest CPI data. A stronger-than-expected headline inflation rate of one per cent for the March quarter – and 3.6 per cent in the year to March – has also prompted economists to forecast that the RBA will delay its first official interest rate cut. However, while most economists expect the RBA’s next move will be a rate cut, Judo Bank’s chief economic adviser Warren Hogan has forecast that it will increase the cash rate three times in 2024, from 4.35 per cent at present to 5.1 per cent. He had previously anticipated that the first rate cut would occur in early 2025.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, JUDO BANK PTY LTD, JUDO CAPITAL HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX JDO

Musk’s lawyers to fight orders on two fronts

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Original article by Nick Bonyhady, Tess Bennett, Tom McIlroy
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 24-Apr-24

Social media giant X could incur a fine of up to $782,500 for each day it does not comply with a directive to remove video footage of the Sydney church stabbing from its platform. However, X owner Elon Musk contends that the ‘take-down’ order goes too far, given that it applies globally. The US billionaire has expressed concern about one country being allowed to censor content for all countries. Musk’s lawyers have indicated that they could challenge the take-down order in the Administrative Appeals Tribunal. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has described Musk as an egotist and accused him of being "out of touch with common decency". Meanwhile, the Coalition has proposed barring young children from using social media to protect them from harmful content.

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X CORPORATION, AUSTRALIA. ADMINISTRATIVE APPEALS TRIBUNAL, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Inflation Expectations in late April are at 5.0% – up slightly from the month of March (4.9%)

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Apr-24

The latest weekly Inflation Expectations are at 5.0% for the week of April 15-21. This figure is in line with the average over the last 12 weeks of surveying since late January – also of 5.0% – and up slightly from the month of March. A look at the monthly Inflation Expectations for March 2024 showed the measure at 4.9% for the month, a decrease of 0.1% points on February (5.0%). The figure of 4.9% for the month of March 2024 was the lowest monthly inflation figure since January 2022 (4.9%). Looking back over the last few months, since mid-December 2023, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a narrow band of 4.8% to 5.3%. After March ended, Inflation Expectations moved higher through the first few weeks of April and are now marginally higher in late April. A likely driver of the increases in Inflation Expectations during April is the recent strength in the retail price of petrol, which is now over $2 per litre. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source which has interviewed an average of around 5,100 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 5,999 Australians aged 14+ in March 2024.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Fears interest rates could be hiked in 2024

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Original article by Sarah Sharples
Herald Sun – Page: Online : 24-Apr-24

Australia’s employment and inflation outlook has prompted speculation that the Reserve Bank could increase rather than reduce the cash rate in 2024. Another official interest rate rise would put further pressure on mortgage holders. Data from Roy Morgan shows that 1.53 million mortgage holders were at risk of mortgage stress in March; CEO Michele Levine says Roy Morgan’s modelling shows that this would rise to 1.57 million mortgage holders if the central bank were to increase the cash rate by 0.25 per cent in both May and June, to 4.85 per cent.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 3.2 points to 80.3 – the lowest so far this year

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Apr-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.2 points to 80.3 in the week to 21 April, and the index has now spent a record 64 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now only 2.3 points above the same week a year ago (78.0), and 2.5 points below the 2024 weekly average of 82.8. Consumer Confidence was down in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia, but up in Western Australia. Now 18% of Australians (down 4ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 51% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 30% (down 3ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator so far this year), while 35% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the highest figure for this indicator so far this year). Now just 9% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 35% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the highest figure for this indicator so far this year). Meanwhile, 23% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 47% (also unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ