O75 Public Administration

Are the central banks in the US, UK, Canada and elsewhere forced to rely on dodgy employment data?

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman of Roy Morgan, Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, Julian McCrann, Morgan Poll Manager
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Apr-24

This week Claire Jones from the Financial Times (in the AFR) highlighted the unreliability of employment data being compiled by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in the UK and Statcan in Canada since the onset of the pandemic. The rapid levels of immigration to countries including the United States, United Kingdom and Canada, as well as the rapid changes to working conditions throughout the pandemic and in the years since, have created many issues with how government statisticians measure employment markets. In addition, respondents in these countries have become less likely to complete labour force surveys and response rates to calls from unknown phone numbers have plunged. All these factors are degrading the reliability of the official data. These same factors are impacting the official Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) jobs data relied upon by the Federal Government, Reserve Bank, and other Government institutions, to make important policy decisions. In Australia, where there’s been a rapid level of immigration, Roy Morgan data has consistently shown the ABS is significantly understating the real level of unemployment and under-employment in Australia – as is the case in overseas jurisdictions as well.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, UNITED STATES. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, GREAT BRITAIN. OFFICE FOR NATIONAL STATISTICS, CANADA. STATCAN, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

CBA chief in call for radical tax overhaul

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Original article by Paulina Duran
The Australian – Page: 19 : 27-Mar-24

Commonwealth Bank of Australia CEO Matt Comyn has called for a major revamp of the nation’s tax system as part of the federal government’s economic growth strategy. Amongst other things, Comyn has proposed the abolition of inefficient taxes such as stamp duties and payroll tax. He has also advocated streamlining the personal income tax regime and the existing tax brackets, including lifting the tax-free threshold to $20,000. Comyn adds that the GST could be increased from 10 per cent to 15 per cent to offset the loss of personal income tax revenue, while he has proposed banning cash payments of more than $500 in order to combat the black economy.

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COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

5pc minimum wage rise would keep rates high

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Original article by David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 27-Mar-24

The Australian Chamber of Commerce & Industry wants the Fair Work Commission to limit the annual minimum wage rise to no more than two per cent. The employers’ group contends that inflation is expected to fall to three per cent, productivity is declining and the FWC has overcompensated for inflation in previous minimum wage decisions. The ACTU in turn is seeking an above-inflation minimum wage increase of five per cent, which ACCI CEO Andrew McKellar says would ensure that interest rates remain high. He adds that wage costs are still a problem for small and medium enterprises, and a large increase in the minimum wage would have an impact on hiring decisions.

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AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, ACTU

Julian Assange wins temporary reprieve in case against extradition to US

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Original article by Haroon Siddique
The Guardian – Page: Online : 27-Mar-24

Amnesty International and the National Union of Journalists have urged the US government to abandon its efforts to extradite Wikileaks founder Julian Assange. The British High Court has ruled that Assange will be entitled to appeal against his extradition to the US unless the Biden administration provides an assurance by mid-April that he will not face the death penalty if he stands trial and is convicted on espionage charges. The court has also sought an assurance from the US government that Assange will be able to rely upon the first amendment if his case goes to trial in the US.

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WIKILEAKS, HIGH COURT OF ENGLAND AND WALES, AMNESTY INTERNATIONAL, NATIONAL UNION OF JOURNALISTS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1.4pts to 83.1 in late March in the week the RBA left interest rates unchanged

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 27-Mar-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.4pts to 83.1 in the week to 24 March. However, the index has now spent a record 60 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 6.5 points above the same week a year ago (76.6), and virtually identical to the 2024 weekly average of 83.0. Consumer Confidence was up in New South Wales and Victoria, down in Western Australia, and virtually unchanged in Queensland and South Australia. Now 21% of Australians (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 52% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 34% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 31% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 10% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 32% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 21% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 50% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation Expectations in late March are at 5.1% – up slightly from the month of February (5.0%)

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 27-Mar-24

The latest weekly Inflation Expectations are at 5.1% for the week of March 18-24. This figure is in line with the average over the last 15 weeks of surveying since early December – also of 5.1% – and up slightly from the month of February. A look at the monthly Inflation Expectations for February 2024 shows the measure at 5.0% for the month, a decrease of 0.1% points on January (5.1%). The figure of 5.0% for the month of February was the lowest monthly inflation figure since January 2022 (4.9%). Looking back over the last few months, since mid-December 2023 weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a narrow band of 4.8% to 5.3%. After February ended, Inflation Expectations dipped in early March, but have now recovered and have moved higher in late March. A likely driver of this week’s increase in Inflation Expectations is the recent strength in the retail price of petrol which is now over $2 per litre. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,100 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 5,998 Australians aged 14+ in February 2024.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Tough visa rules to ban countries

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Original article by Andrew Tillett
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 27-Mar-24

The House of Representatives has passed legislation that targets failed asylum-seekers who refuse to co-operate with immigration authorities regarding their removal from Australia. The legislation allows them to be jailed for up to five years and specifies that fears of persecution if they are returned to their home country will not be regarded as a reasonable excuse for their lack of co-operation. The government will also have the power to block visa applications from all citizens of countries that refuse to refuse to accept the return of failed asylum seekers. The legislation was passed with the support of the Coalition, although it has forced Labor to agree to a Senate inquiry into the bill.

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Utes win big reprieve on emissions

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Original article by Phillip Coorey, Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 26-Mar-24

The federal government’s revised fuel-efficiency standards for new vehicles were approved by cabinet on Monday. The changes follow consultation with the car industry, amid concerns that popular vehicles such as utes and SUVs could have been forced out of the Australian market under the original version of the National Vehicles Emissions Scheme. The scheme will impose annual emissions caps on small passenger cars and light commercial vehicles such as utes. However, heavy SUVs that use the same chassis and drivetrain as a ute will now be classified as light commercial vehicles; they were previously to have been classified as passenger vehicles, which would have attracted much stricter emissions caps.

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Labor’s Dean Winter to seek leadership after party’s election loss under Rebecca White in Tasmania

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Original article by Adam Langenberg
abc.net.au – Page: Online : 26-Mar-24

Dean Winter has indicated that he will seek the leadership of the Tasmanian Labor Party, following its loss in the state election at the weekend. The loss was the third in a row under Rebecca White, who is expected to stand down as leader. A former mayor of Kingborough, Winter entered state parliament at the 2021 election, and was convincingly re-elected on Saturday. Josh Willie, who has moved down from the Legislative Council, is regarded as the preferred candidate of the party’s dominant Left faction.

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AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Premiers revolt over federal NDIS law, fearing cost time bomb

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Original article by David Crowe, Natassia Chrysanthos
Brisbane Times – Page: Online : 26-Mar-24

The state governments are concerned that changes to the National Disability Insurance Scheme will impose a huge financial burden on them. A meeting of the national cabinet in late 2024 agreed to the reforms, which will establish a new state and territory disability system to be called ‘foundational supports’; its aim is to provide services to about 2.5 million Australians with a disability who need less intense support than the NDIS, with a focus on children with autism and developmental delay. The states want the draft bill to be delayed to allow more time for consultation about the reforms.

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