O75 Public Administration

Labor working tails off to lift primary vote

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 26-Mar-24

Labor won the 2022 federal election with a primary vote of just 32.6 per cent. The combined vote for the major political parties fell to a record low of 68.3 per cent; in contrast, the vote for minor parties and independents reached a record high of 31.7 per cent. There was a similar trend against the major parties in Saturday’s state election in Tasmania. However, Labor believes that its low primary vote is not permanent but reflects voters concerns about issues such as the cost of living crisis and migrant numbers. Treasurer Jim Chalmers says Labor is working hard to give people the government they "need and deserve". He adds that the next election will be "close and hard fought".

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Federal voting intention: Support for the ALP and L-NP Coalition is even in late March – ALP 50% cf. L-NP 50%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 26-Mar-24

Support for the ALP was down 1.5% to 50% in late March and is now even with the L-NP Coalition on 50% (up 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the result would be a hung parliament with the support of minor parties and independents required for either of the major parties to form minority government, the latest Roy Morgan survey shows. A look at the States shows the biggest swing to the Coalition was in Queensland – up by 5.5% points. The swing in Queensland came after the poor showing for the ALP at the previous week’s local government and key by-elections in the state seats of Inala (19.5% swing to LNP) and Ipswich West (17.9% swing to LNP). Primary support for the Coalition increased 1% to 38% and is now clearly ahead of the ALP on 31.5%, unchanged from a week ago. Support for the Greens increased 1.5% to 14% and One Nation support dropped 1% to 4.5%. Support for Independents was down 1.5% to 7.5% and support for Other Parties was unchanged at 4.5%. The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,633 Australian electors from March 18-24. Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by CEO Michele Levine.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

Immigration not on target to drop

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Original article by Sarah Ison
The Australian – Page: 4 : 26-Mar-24

Recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that net overseas migration totalled 548,000 in the year to September. The Coalition has questioned the federal government’s claim that its policies will reduce net overseas migration to just 375,000 in the year to June. The Coalition estimates that net overseas migration would need to be reduced by 27 per cent – or 76,600 people – in the remainder of the current financial year in order to achieve this. Former Department of Immigration bureaucrat Abul Rizvi believes that net overseas migration for 2023-24 is likely to be around 400,000 to 500,000.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ACTU’s 5pc wage push sets up showdown

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Original article by David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 26-Mar-24

The ACTU will use its submission to the Fair Work Commission’s annual minimum wage review to call for an above-inflation increase of five per cent. This would increase the minimum wage to $24.39 an hour, or $48,200 a year. ACTU secretary Sally McManus contends that workers on the lowest pay are hardest hit by inflation, and they need a pay rise of five per cent to make up for the real wage losses over the last several years. The Australian Chamber of Commerce & Industry will in turn push for the minimum wage to be increased by no more than two per cent, following a large rise in both the minimum wage and award wages in 2023.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, ACTU, AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY

China visit sees $105 billion iron ore exports on the brink

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Original article by Jamie Seidel
News.com.au – Page: Online : 20-Mar-24

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit Australia to hold talks aimed at removing the remaining punitive tariffs on Australian exports. Wang is also expected to push for the easing of restrictions on Chinese investment in Australia, as well as support for China’s bid to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. However, the talks have coincided with China’s growing push to reduce its dependence on iron ore exports from Australia. BHP CEO Mike Henry recently warned that Chinese-backed producers’ growing dominance of the nickel market could be replicated in the iron ore sector.

CORPORATES
CHINA. MINISTRY OF COMMERCE, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP

Australian unemployment increases in February; but under-employment drops to lowest since September 2023

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Mar-24

In February 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment was virtually unchanged at 1,436,000 (9.2% of the workforce) and an additional 1,501,000 (9.6%) were under-employed. In total, 2.94 million Australians (18.8%) were unemployed or under-employed in February. Although unemployment and under-employment remain high, there has been a surge in employment over the last year – up by 711,000 to 14,228,000. This is the first month in which total employment has exceeded 14.2 million. Employment increased by 78,000 in February; full-time employment drove the increase (up 154,000 to a new record high of 9,359,000), while part-time employment dropped 76,000 to 4,869,000. The workforce in February was 15,664,000 (up 132,000 from January, and up 626,000 from a year ago). Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.2% is more than double the ABS estimate of 4.1% for January, but is approaching the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.7%. The February Roy Morgan Unemployment estimates were obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross-section of people aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Bullock backs Chalmers in RBA stoush with Coalition

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 20-Mar-24

Treasurer Jim Chalmers wants the Coalition’s support for legislation to overhaul the Reserve Bank of Australia, as he does not want to negotiate with the Greens. The Coalition is concerned that Chalmers wants the RBA existing board members to be appointed to its new governance board so he can "stack" the interest rates-setting board with people who are aligned with Labor. RBA governor Michelle Bullock says she would like "continuity with respect to both boards", but adds that she has no firm views on just how many current board members should serve on each of the new boards.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

End of subsidy will risk power bill cut

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Original article by Patrick Commins, Sarah Ison
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 20-Mar-24

The Australian Energy Regulator’s proposed changes to the default market offer could reduce household power bills by up to 7.1 per cent in 2024-25. Businesses in turn could see their electricity costs fall by up to 10 per cent. However, the AER’s proposed changes to the default market offer will be offset by a likely big increase in electricity bills for many households if the federal government does not renew its commitment to the energy bill relief fund in 2024-25, which is jointly funded by the states. It has provided energy subsidies to people on low incomes and small businsses.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN ENERGY REGULATOR

Axing the Olympics was never on cards

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Original article by Lydia Lynch
The Australian – Page: 7 : 20-Mar-24

The Queensland government has responded to media reports which claimed that it had sought advice on the potential costs associated with cancelling the 2032 Brisbane Olympic Games. A spokeswoman from the office of Premier Steven Miles has stated that the government has not sought advice about cancelling the Games and it has never had any intention of not proceeding with the event. The media reports alleged that the government had been advised that it would have to pay $500m in compensation if the Games were cancelled, while it would also lose $3.5bn worth of infrastructure funding from the federal government.

CORPORATES
QUEENSLAND. DEPT OF THE PREMIER AND CABINET

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 81.7 in mid-March before final pre-Budget meeting of RBA

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Mar-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 81.7 in the week to 17 March. However, the index has now spent a record 59 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is again 5.2 points above the same week a year ago (76.5), but 1.3 points below the 2024 weekly average of 83.0. Consumer Confidence was up in New South Wales and Queensland, but down in Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia. Now 18% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (the lowest figure for this indicator so far this year), while 52% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 32% (down 1 ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 32% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 10% (down 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 31% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 49% (also unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ