O75 Public Administration

Coalition voters win in Labor’s tax U-turn: PM

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 7 : 31-Jan-24

Treasury analysis shows that the federal government’s proposed changes to the stage-three income tax cuts package will strongly benefit Coalition voters. The analysis suggest that about 85 per cent of voters in seats held by the Liberal or National parties will be better off than they would have been if the tax cuts had gone ahead in their original form. The federal government will use the Treasury data to seek the Coalition’s support for its changes. The Opposition will not decide its formal stance on the changes until parliament resumes next week; however, it will continue to reiterate that Labor has broken an election promise regarding the tax cuts.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Burke open to IR bill concessions

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 2 : 31-Jan-24

A Senate inquiry’s report on the federal government’s Closing Loopholes Bill will be tabled on Thursday, and the remaining provisions of the bill are set to be debated in parliament next week. Sources have indicated that the government is prepared to make some amendments to the bill in order to secure the support of Senate crossbenchers. These could potentially include delaying the starting date for measures relating to casual employment and the gig economy. However, Business Council of Australia CEO Bran Black says the bill requires substantial changes rather than ‘technical amendments’, given that it will have a significant economic impact on jobs and employment.

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BUSINESS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA

‘Very dangerous prime minister’: Turnbull attacks Abbott in new ABC documentary

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Original article by Paul Sakkal
The Age – Page: Online : 30-Jan-24

Former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull has told an ABC documentary that chronicles the former Coalition government’s nine years in power that Tony Abbott was a "very dangerous prime minister". Turnbull, who toppled Abbott in 2015, claims that Abbott sought to exaggerate the threat of terrorism in order to frighten people, and that he was too forceful in his response to Russia in the wake of the downing of flight MH17 in 2014 in which 38 Australians died. Abbott, who did not take part in the documentary, has been approached for comment.

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AUSTRALIAN BROADCASTING CORPORATION

Latest wage growth tops 4pc

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 4 : 30-Jan-24

Analysis of data from the Fair Work Commission shows that workers received an average pay rise of four per cent in enterprise agreements that were lodged in the second half of 2023. ACTU secretary Sally McManus says stronger wage growth in enterprise agreements demonstrates the value of joining a union; however, she adds that more needs to be done to achieve real wage growth during the cost-of-living crisis. Meanwhile, the FWC has released a discussion paper on hybrid working arrangements and employees’ right to disconnect from their workplace outside of designated working hours.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, ACTU

Accused torturer to command ADF troops

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Original article by Stephen Rice
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 30-Jan-24

Colonel Penioni Naliva has been appointed as deputy commander of the Australian Army’s 7th Brigade, which comprises around 3,500 troops, with his appointment coming after he graduated from the Australian War College in 2023. A senior Fijian military officer, Naliva has been accused of torture and human rights abuses, and a Defence spokesperson said it was aware of the allegations. There is speculation that current Fiji prime minister Sitiveni Rabuk approved Naliva’s appointment over concern that he was the military officer most likely to stage a coup against his unstable government; his appointment will see Naliva move to Australia, thus lessening the risk of him staging a coup.

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AUSTRALIAN ARMY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF DEFENCE

Coalition splits over ALP tax cuts overhaul

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Original article by Rosie Lewis, Jess Malcolm, Sarah Ison
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 30-Jan-24

Shadow cabinet ministers will meet on Tuesday to discuss the federal government’s proposed changes to the legislated stage-three tax cuts. Senior sources within the Liberal Party have suggested that the Coalition will seek amendments to Labor’s legislation but is unlikely to vote against it. Judo Bank’s chief economic adviser Warren Hogan said it would be hard for the Coalition to oppose Labor’s tax changes, although he says it could pursue the ‘reform element’ of the original income tax cuts package ahead of the next election.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, JUDO BANK PTY LTD

ALP support plunges 2% after breaking promise on Stage 3 tax cuts: ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Jan-24

The latest Roy Morgan survey on Federal voting intention shows that support for Labor has fallen by 2% to 50.5% on a two-party preferred basis, and is now just ahead of the Coalition on 49.5% (up 2%). Support for Labor fell after the government broke its promise not to change the stage-three tax cuts; if this week’s result was repeated at a Federal Election held now there would be a hung parliament, with the balance of power held by minor parties and independents. Labor’s primary support dropped 1.5% to 31%, while Coalition support increased by 1.5% to 37.5%. The Greens increased 0.5% to 13% and One Nation increased 0.5% to 5%. Support for Independents & Other Parties was down 1% to 13%. The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,688 Australian electors from January 22-28.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

Morrison quits to join forces with Pompeo

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Original article by Simon Benson
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 24-Jan-24

Former prime minister Scott Morrison will become the vice-chairman of American Global Strategies following his retirement from parliament at the end of February. The boutique strategic advisory firm was co-founded by Robert O’Brien, a former national security adviser to the Trump administration. Morrison will also work with former US secretary of state Mike Pompeo as a strategic adviser to asset management firm DYNE. The by-election in Morrison’s Sydney seat of Cook is expected to be held ahead of the federal government’s budget in May; Morrison retained the seat with a comfortable margin at the 2022 election, despite a large swing against him.

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AMERICAN GLOBAL STRATEGIES

Roy Morgan Business Confidence increased 5.3pts to 91.1 in December – after the RBA left interest rates unchanged at 4.35%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Jan-24

In December 2023, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 91.1 (up 5.3pts since November). The rebound in Business Confidence came after the RBA left interest rates unchanged at 4.35% in its final meeting for the year in early December. Business Confidence has now spent a record eleven consecutive months below the neutral level of 100, the longest stretch in negative territory in the history of the index dating back to 2010. Business Confidence is now 20.1pts below the long-term average of 111.2. Businesses are worried about the performance of the Australian economy, with 64% expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next year and 59% expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next five years. Nevertheless, businesses remain relatively positive about their own prospects over the next year; 42.8% say they will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while only 25.4% say they will be ‘worse off’ – a positive net rating of 17.4% points. The Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for December are based on 1,497 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence unchanged at 84.4 in the third week of 2024

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Jan-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was unchanged at 84.4 in the week to 21 January, and it has now spent a record 51 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is 1.5pts below the same week a year ago (85.9), but 6.4 points above the 2023 weekly average of 78.0. There were mixed results around the States, with Consumer Confidence up in Western Australia and South Australia but down in New South Wales and Queensland and unchanged elsewhere. Now 21% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 48% (down 4% points) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 34% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the equal highest figure for this indicator since late January 2023), while 31% (also unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the equal lowest figure for this indicator since late January 2023). Only 10% (down 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 33% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 25% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 48% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ