O75 Public Administration

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence bounces slightly, up 0.9pts to 86.8 over four-day holiday weekend for many

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-Feb-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 0.9pts to 86.8 in the week to 29 January, the third increase out of four weeks so far this year. However, Consumer Confidence is still 15pts below the same week a year ago (101.8), and 1.9pts below the 2022 weekly average of 88.7. Consumer Confidence around Australia was mixed, with the measure up in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia, but down in Victoria and South Australia. Now 22% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 44% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 34% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 30% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 7% (down 2ppts) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 30% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 24% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 46% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Australia’s softening inflation unlikely to spell an end to interest rate hikes

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Original article by Peter Hannam
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 25-Jan-23

The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release inflation data for the December quarter on Wednesday. Many economists expect the annual headline inflation rate to have peaked at 7.5 per cent in the quarter, compared with 7.3 per cent in the previous three months. The trimmed mean is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s preferred measure of inflation; the general consensus of economists is that this will be 6.4 per cent in the December quarter, compared with 6.1 per cent in the previous quarter. However, the ANZ Bank expects a headline inflation rate of 7.7 per cent and a trimmed mean of 6.7 per cent. The bank contends that the RBA is likely to increase the cash rate three times by May, given that both measures will still be well above its target range of 2-3 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Woke firms giving only Yes side of voice debate

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Original article by Ellie Dudley
The Australian – Page: 4 : 25-Jan-23

KPMG and Ernst & Young are among the large Australian firms that have expressed support for an Indigenous voice to parliament. A KPMG spokeswoman says the firm is likely to hold optional seminars during work hours to "educate" its staff as to why they should vote ‘yes’ in the upcoming voice referendum. Indigenous leader Nyunggai Warren Mundine has criticised "woke" companies for running "biased education programs" that favour the ‘yes’ campaign and push their corporate agenda. Former prime minister Tony Abbott says companies should let their employees make up their own minds on the issue of an Indigenous voice.

CORPORATES
KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, ERNST AND YOUNG

New Zealand: Labour support at only 27.5% in December 2022 – down 22.5% points since the 2020 New Zealand Election before Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern resigned

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Jan-23

The latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows that support for the Labour/Greens coalition government was on 38.5% in December, down 19.4% points since the 2020 election. Support for Labour has fallen by 22.5% to 27.5% since the election in October 2020. Meanwhile, support for a potential National/Act NZ coalition government has risen by 16.3% points to 49.5% since the election. Support for the main opposition National Party is up 9.4% points to 35% and support for Act NZ has increased by 6.9% points to 14.5%. Support for the Maori Party has increased by 2.8% points to 4% since the election. In addition, 8% of electors support minor parties outside Parliament, an increase of 0.3% points since the 2020 election. If these results were repeated at this year’s election the National/Act NZ coalition would likely secure 65 seats in the new Parliament compared to 50 seats for Labour/Greens and a further five seats for the Maori Party. This New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 947 electors during December, prior to the resignation of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. Meanwhile, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating fell by a further 5pts in December to a record low of 75. The indicator is now down 78pts from January 2021 (153), just after the re-election of the Ardern Government.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, LABOUR PARTY (NEW ZEALAND), GREEN PARTY OF AOTEAROA NEW ZEALAND, NATIONAL PARTY OF NEW ZEALAND, ACT NEW ZEALAND, THE MAORI PARTY, NEW ZEALAND FIRST PARTY, THE OPPORTUNITIES PARTY, NEW CONSERVATIVE PARTY

Government prepares to unveil AUKUS plan

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Original article by Matthew Knott
The Age – Page: Online : 25-Jan-23

The federal government is expected to shortly announce which nuclear-powered submarine design it would opt for under the AUKUS alliance. Defence Minister Richard Marles will receive the recommendations of the submarine taskforce in coming weeks, as well as the final version of a strategic review of the nation’s defence forces. Marles says he is prepared to make difficult decisions regarding defence spending in response to the strategic review. However, he stresses that the government will ensure that the nation avoids a ‘capability gap’ between the retirement of the Collins-class submarines and the delivery of their nuclear-powered replacements.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF DEFENCE

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 1.8pts to 85.9, first fall in the index of the New Year

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Jan-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.8pts to 85.9 in the week ended 22 January. Consumer Confidence is now 14.2pts below the same week a year ago (100.1), and 2.8pts below the 2022 weekly average of 88.7. Consumer Confidence was down slightly in most parts of Australia including New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and Queensland, but it was up in South Australia. Now 22% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 45% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 34% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 31% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 9% (up 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 30% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since late May 2022 – the week after the election of the Albanese Government). Meanwhile, 23% (down 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 47% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Nearly two-thirds of Australians (64%) say January 26 should be known as ‘Australia Day’, virtually unchanged on a year ago

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Jan-23

A special Roy Morgan SMS Poll into attitudes towards January 26 shows that a clear majority of 64% of Australians now say the date should be known as ‘Australia Day’, which is virtually unchanged from a year ago. Some 36% of Australians say it should be called ‘Invasion Day’. Analysis by gender shows that 69% of men favour January 26 being known as ‘Australia Day’, while 31% say it should be called ‘Invasion Day’. In contrast, women are more evenly split with a narrow majority of 58% in favour of January 26 being known as ‘Australia Day’ compared to 42% saying it should be known as ‘Invasion Day’. Support for saying January 26 should be known as ‘Australia Day’ is down slightly on a year ago for both genders. This Roy Morgan SMS Poll was conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,231 Australians aged 18+ on the weekend from Friday January 20 to Monday January 23.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Jobs data is too old – we are in a new world

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Original article by Terry McCrann
Herald Sun – Page: 61 : 20-Jan-23

Official data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the economy shed 14,600 jobs in December. Economists had expected a gain of about 25,000 jobs. It is important to keep in mind that the ABS data only covers the first two weeks of December, and is therefore already five or six weeks old. The ABS itself concedes that it is only 95 per cent confident that the change in jobs was somewhere between a fall of 78,400 and an increase of 49,200. The loss of 78,000 jobs leading into the Christmas peak retail season would raise concerns about a recession, as well as the prospect of interest rate cuts. A strong increase in jobs could in turn prompt the Reserve Bank to resume lifting the cash rate by 50 basis points. More relevant and more recent evidence on what is happening with the economy will be available when the central bank’s board meets in early February.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Australia risks UN human rights blacklisting as states fail to meet prison obligations

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Original article by Adeshola Ore
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 20-Jan-23

Signatories to the United Nations’ Optional Protocol to the Convention Against Torture (Opcat) are required to establish independent bodies known as national preventive mechanisms that act as watchdogs and inspect prisons and other places of detention in regard to human rights issues. However, NSW, Victoria and Queensland have yet to designate their independent oversight bodies, and contend they cannot meet their Opcat obligations without financial help from the federal government. Australia could find itself on a human rights blacklist if it does not meet its Opcat obligations by 20 January.

CORPORATES
UNITED NATIONS

Australia will miss Jacinda Ardern but trans-Tasman ties likely to stay strong

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Original article by Josh Butler
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 20-Jan-23

Former Australian diplomat Allan Behm does not expect the sudden resignation of New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern to have much impact on the relationship between the two nations. He says this relationship is very close and will remain so regardless of who is prime minister. However, Behm adds that it makes the relationship much more effective if the two PMs get on really well, as is the case with Anthony Albanese and Ardern. Robert Ayson from the Victoria University of Wellington says Ardern’s Labour Party would most likely have lost the upcoming election in October even if she had stayed on. He adds that the growing prospect of a change in government in NZ is unlikely to have much impact on trans-Tasman relations.

CORPORATES
NEW ZEALAND. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, LABOUR PARTY (NEW ZEALAND), VICTORIA UNIVERSITY OF WELLINGTON