O75 Public Administration

Frydenberg flags home loan curbs

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 2 : 28-Sep-21

Growing concern about the high debt-to-income ratios of home buyers may prompt the federal government to push for regulatory intervention. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg discussed the issue at the Council of Financial Regulators’ recent quarterly meeting, although the CFR is not expected to announce any macro-prudential measures in its quarterly statement on 29 September. Frydenberg says Australia’s macro-prudential settings must be continually assessed, and they should be adjusted if this is deemed to be necessary.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. COUNCIL OF FINANCIAL REGULATORS

Steeled for ore fall budgetary blow

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 2 : 28-Sep-21

Chris Richardson of Deloitte Access Economics says the sharp fall in the iron ore price has major implications for the federal and Western Australian budgets. He says the 2021-22 budget forecasts of both governments may not have been conservative enough in the wake of the price crash. The fall in the iron ore price has been attributed to factors such as the Chinese government’s environmentally-driven restrictions on steel production and the financial problems of property developer Evergrande. Surging commodity prices saw overall tax revenue from the mining sector top $30bn in 2020-21, compared with just $12bn in 2015-16.

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DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD

NSW Premier reveals roadmap out of lockdown

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Original article by Ursula Malone
abc.net.au – Page: Online : 28-Sep-21

The New South Wales government has been criticised for ignoring the national plan for reopening the economy. Premier Gladys Berejiklian has revealed that some COVID-19 restrictions will be eased for fully-vaccinated people from 11 October, when 70 per cent of residents aged 16+ are expected to have had two vaccine doses. Restrictions will be further relaxed by 25 October, when the fully-vaccinated target of 80 per cent is slated to be achieved. However, most restrictions are set to remain in place for unvaccinated people until 1 December, when 90 per cent of the eligible population is expected to be fully vaccinated. NSW has reported 787 new locally-acquired COVID-19 cases and 12 additional deaths from the current outbreak.

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NEW SOUTH WALES. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET

Shorter vaccine intervals likely as Victoria races towards 80pc full vaccination target

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Original article by
abc.net.au – Page: Online : 28-Sep-21

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews has ruled out applying the same COVID-19 rules to unvaccinated people once 90 per cent of the state’s eligible population is fully vaccinated. He says the state government has not begun to discuss the question of when all Victorians will be on an ‘equal footing’, adding that he has not received new medical advice about revising the state’s existing reopening roadmap. However, Andrews has flagged the possibility that the state could achieve its vaccination targets ahead of schedule, and signalled that the period between vaccine doses could be reduced if the state has certainty of vaccine supply. Victoria has recorded 705 new locally-acquired COVID-19 cases, while the toll from the current outbreak has risen to 25 following the death of a man in his 70s.

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VICTORIA. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET

Inflation Expectations up 0.2% points to 4.3% in August; highest for nearly three years since November 2018

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22 September August 2021

In August 2021, Australians expected inflation of 4.3% annually over the next two years, up 0.2% points and the highest Inflation Expectations since November 2018. Inflation Expectations are now up 1.1% points since the pandemic low of 3.2% in August 2020. Inflation Expectations are still 0.4% points below their long-term average of 4.7% but are now 0.8% points higher than the 2020 monthly average of 3.5%. A look at Inflation Expectations by Federal Voting Intention shows big increases across the board from a year ago, and up significantly from two years. Inflation Expectations for L-NP supporters increased 1.1% points from a year ago to 4.2% in August and are now 0.7% points higher than two years ago in August 2019. In fact, the Inflation Expectations of L-NP supporters are now at their highest level since November 2014. The Inflation Expectations of Greens supporters have increased faster than any other over the last year and are up 1.5% points to 3.9% – but are still lower than supporters of all other parties. The Inflation Expectations for ALP supporters are at 4.2% in August, up 0.9% points from a year ago and now 0.5% points higher than two years ago in August 2019. On a State-based level Inflation Expectations are highest and well above the national average in both Tasmania at 4.7% and Queensland at 4.5%.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Hoarded cash to drive recovery

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Original article by Tom Dusevic
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 22-Sep-21

The OECD now expects the Australian economy to grow by four per cent in 2021. The Paris-based organisation had previously forecast in May that the domestic economy would expand by 5.1 per cent in 2021 as it recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the Commonwealth Bank says economic activity will be boosted as households begin spending about $230bn worth of savings they have accumulated during the pandemic. The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest board meeting show that it is also upbeat about the long-term economic outlook, despite expectations that GDP will fall and unemployment will rise in the September quarter.

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ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Tax cuts to soon disappear as budget relies on workers to recover from COVID-19

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Original article by Shane Wright
The Age – Page: Online : 22-Sep-21

Analysis by the Parliamentary Budget Office shows that ‘bracket creep’ will erode the benefits of the federal government’s personal income tax cuts over the next decade. The PBO has forecast that people with annual income of $20,000 to $50,000 face an increase of 6.6 per cent in their average tax rate by 2031-32, while those earning between $50,000 and $75,000 will pay an extra three per cent. People earning $96,000 to $160,000 a year are the only ones who will be paying a lower average tax rate. The final stage of the income tax cuts package will take effect in mid-2024.

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AUSTRALIA. PARLIAMENTARY BUDGET OFFICE

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 103.3 before Victorian re-opening plan outlined on Sunday

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Sep-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 0.2pts to 103.3 on September 18/19, before Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews outlined the State’s re-opening plan; the full impact on confidence won’t be felt until next weekend. Consumer Confidence remains well below the 2021 weekly average of 108.6, but it is now 9.8 points higher than the same week a year ago (93.5). Consumer Confidence this week was down slightly in both NSW and Victoria, although still in positive territory in both States. Consumer Confidence increased in both Queensland and South Australia, and was virtually unchanged – and higher than anywhere else – in Western Australia at well over 110. Now 26% (down 1ppt) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 30% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 38% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and only 13% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 14% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 24% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 34% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 32% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

US has ‘no closer ally than Australia’, says Biden after AUKUS pact

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Original article by Patrick Wintour
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 22-Sep-21

Prime Minister Scott Morrison and US President Joe Biden have held their first official in-person meeting on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. Biden praised Australia ahead of the meeting, stating that the US has no "closer or more reliable ally". Biden had earlier addressed the general assembly, but his speech did not directly mention the new AUKUS security alliance between Australia, the UK and the US. Meanwhile, former prime minister Kevin Rudd has criticised Morrison’s handling of the cancelled submarines contract, particularly his failure to inform the French government that the deal would be dropped in favour of nuclear-powered subs under the new alliance.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, UNITED NATIONS. GENERAL ASSEMBLY

Rampaging thugs unleash destructive anarchy on Melbourne

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Original article by John Ferguson, Angelica Snowden, Remy Varga
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 22-Sep-21

Sixty-two people were arrested during violent protests in Melbourne on 21 September, in response to the Victorian government’s mandatory COVID-19 vaccination policy for construction workers and a two-week shutdown of the sector. An estimated 2,000 people participated in the protest, including construction workers, tradespeople and unionists, while there have been claims that the demonstration had been infiltrated by far-right activists and anti-vaxxers. Further protests are expected in coming days. Meanwhile, the state government has revised downward the number of COVID-19 cases linked to the construction sector since early August from 403 to just 337. This includes 239 cases that are linked to construction sites in metropolitan Melbourne.

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