O75 Public Administration

Roy Morgan Poll: Albanese Government retains strong two-party preferred lead after US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities: ALP 57.5% cf. L-NP 42.5%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-Jul-25

In the final week of June, and following immediately after US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, the ALP 57.5% has maintained a large two-party preferred lead over the L-NP Coalition 42.5%, virtually unchanged on a week earlier, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds. Interviewing for this survey began on Monday June 23 – the same day Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Foreign Minister Penny Wong expressed support for the decision by the United States to strike the Iranian nuclear facilities and reiterated Australia’s position that Iran not be able to develop nuclear weapons. In the final week of June primary support for the ALP was at 36.5% (down 1% since early June) and clearly ahead of the Liberal-National Coalition on 30.5% (down 0.5%). Support for the Greens was unchanged on 12% and support for One Nation increased 2.5% to 8.5%. In addition, support for Independents/Other Parties was at 12.5% (down 1%).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

PM blowing up our defence hopes

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Original article by Ben Packham
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 1-Jul-25

The federal government struck a deal with the Biden administration in 2024 to purchase $7bn worth of guided missiles for its fleet of warships. However, the deal has yet to receive final approval from the White House, and there are fears that the Trump administration could redirect the consignment of missiles to a US ally that is willing to meet its demands regarding defence spending. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is continuing to resist pressure from the US to increase defence expenditure to 3.5 per cent of GDP; he is adamant that the government will stick with its target of just 2.3 per cent by 2033.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Federal voting intention before US bombing of Iranian nuclear sites showed the ALP retained a strong two-party preferred lead: ALP 58% cf. L-NP 42%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Jun-25

The latest Roy Morgan survey shows that the ALP on 58% maintained a large two-party preferred lead over the L-NP Coalition on 42% on a two-party preferred basis for the first three weeks of June. Primary support for the ALP was at 37.5% (up 0.5% since May) in the first three weeks of June, and is clearly ahead of the Liberal-National Coalition on 31% (unchanged). Support for the Greens increased 0.5% to 12% and support for One Nation was unchanged at 6%. In addition, support for Independents/Other Parties was at 13.5% (down 1%). Meanwhile, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased 4.5 points to 101.5 during the first three weeks of June. Government Confidence is now above the neutral level of 100 for the first time since February 2023. The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 3,957 Australian electors from 2-22 June.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

YouTube blasts eSafety chief for ban on under 16s

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Original article by Sam Buckingham-Jones
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 25-Jun-25

The federal government’s proposal to exempt YouTube from its ban on allowing children under the age of 16 to access social media continues to attract scrutiny. YouTube contends that eSafety Commissioner Julie Inman Grant has provided "inconsistent and contradictory" advice to the government in her recommendation to scrap the exemption; YouTube executive Rachel Lord notes that Inman Grant had previously expressed concern that the ban may limit young Australians’ access to ‘critical support’. Lord also argues that YouTube is a video-streaming platform rather than a social media platform.

CORPORATES
YOUTUBE INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIA. OFFICE OF THE ESAFETY COMMISSIONER

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations increased slightly to 4.7% in mid-June – up from 4.6% for the month of May

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Jun-25

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were 4.7% for the week of 16-22 June, up 0.1% points from the month of May, following a volatile period for the measure in early June. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for May 2025 shows the measure at 4.6% for the month – a decrease of 0.2% points from April and level with the near four year low reached in February 2025 (4.6%). Looking back over the last year, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a band of 4.2% to 5.2% since the start of May 2024 and averaged 4.8%. A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level for May shows mixed results, with an increase in Queensland, an unchanged result in Western Australia and falls in the four other States. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 4,090 Australians aged 14+ in May 2025.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

GST warning in roundtable revamp

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Original article by Matthew Cranston, Greg Brown, Sarah Elks
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 25-Jun-25

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese had pitched the federal government’s plans to bring unions, business leaders and community groups together in August as a productivity roundtable. However, Treasurer Jim Chalmers has sought to broaden the scope of the summit by describing it as an "economic reform roundtable". He has also reiterated that the goods and services tax will be on the agenda; Chalmers adds that changes to the GST will only be considered if they are revenue-neutral and in the national interest.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Blockade a wake-up call for fuel reserves

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 25-Jun-25

Defence and national security expert Jennifer Parker believes that Iran’s ally China will not allow the Strait of Hormuz to be closed to oil tankers. However, Parker says Iran’s threat to block the strait – which is used to ship about 25 per cent of global oil supplies – is a "timely reminder" that Australia needs to build a much larger onshore reserve of fuel. The International Energy Agency’s protocols require nations to hold at least 90 days of oil stocks in reserve; this includes both oil that is stored domestically and fuel that is in transit. The IEA estimates that Australia has just 56 days of onshore fuel reserves, including 31 days worth of petrol.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1.3pts to 86.7, driven by improving buying sentiment amid Mid-Winter Sales

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Jun-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.3pts to 86.7 in the week to 22 June, rebounding from last week’s fall to return to the level of two weeks ago despite the continued conflict between Israel and Iran in the Middle East. Consumer Confidence is now 6.3 points above the same week a year ago (80.4), and it is just above the 2025 weekly average of 86.4. Analysis by State shows mixed results, with Consumer Confidence up in Victoria and Queensland, unchanged in New South Wales and Western Australia, and unchanged in South Australia. Now 21% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 44% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 28% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 32% (down 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now just 11% (unchanged) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 30% (also unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 26% (up 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 33% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since April 2022).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Labor flags wider tax makeover

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Original article by John Kehoe. Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 5 : 18-Jun-25

Treasurer Jim Chalmers will use a National Press Club speech today to identify boosting productivity, budget sustainability and economic resilience as the federal government’s reform priorities for its second term in office. Chalmers will contend that while the federal budget is now stronger, it is not yet sustainable; he will also argue that the domestic economy is growing and resilient, but it is not productive enough or resilient enough. Meanwhile, he has given indications that tax reform may be on the agenda for the productivity roundtable in August, stating that Labor may be open to broader tax reforms than its proposed changes to the tax treatment of superannuation accounts with balances exceeding $3m.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY. NATIONAL PRESS CLUB (AUSTRALIA)

In May Australian unemployment dropped to 10.9% – however, this was due to people leaving the workforce rather than finding jobs

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Jun-25

In May 2025, Australian ‘real’ unemployment fell by 65,000 to 1,715,000 (down 0.3%, to 10.9% of the workforce). However, the fall in unemployment was not because people looking for work found jobs, but because they gave up and left the workforce. In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.44 million Australians (9.1% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work (down 36,000 from April). In total, 3.15 million Australians (20.0% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in May. Meanwhile, Roy Morgan estimates that the overall workforce size (which adds together both the employed and unemployed) was just over 15.7 million in May, down 206,000 on a month ago and representing 68.3% of Australians aged 14+. This is the smallest estimated workforce so far this year, and the largest monthly workforce contraction since October 2021. Roy Morgan also estimates that just over 14 million people (14,025,000) were employed in May; this is down 141,000 from a month ago, and the lowest level of employment since November 2023.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED