O75 Public Administration

PM’s rebuke to Andrews over contact tracing

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Original article by Phillip Coorey Patrick Durkin
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 17-Jul-20

Victoria reported 317 new coronavirus cases on 16 July, eclipsing the previous daily record. The state also recorded another two deaths from the respiratory illness, lifting the national death toll to 113. Prime Minister Scott Morrison notes that contact tracing procedures continue to be problematic in Victoria, noting that the New South Wales government has managed this much more effectively than its Victorian counterpart. Morrison has also warned of the economic consequences of shifting coronavirus policy from one of suppression to elimination.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

ABS June unemployment estimate ignores the 416,000 Australians who have left the workforce since March

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Original article by Michele Levine Gary Morgan Julian McCrann
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Jul-20

The ABS unemployment estimate for June 2020 claims 992,000 Australians were unemployed (7.4% of the workforce), the highest unemployment rate since September 1999. However, the ABS claims 416,000 Australians have left the workforce since March – meaning the participation rate has dropped from 66% to 64% in June. If the ABS participation rate was steady at 66% there would now be 1.41 million unemployed. In addition, within the ABS employment release is a section indicating 175,000 Australians the ABS counts as employed were working zero hours in June and had ‘no work, not enough work available, or were stood down’. If these non-workers are added the adjusted ABS unemployment estimate increases to 1.58 million – an unemployment rate of 11.9%. Combined with the ABS under-employment estimate of 11.7% (1.56 million) that would be 3.14 million Australians unemployed or under-employed in June – 23.6% of the Australian workforce. This ‘adjusted’ ABS estimate is close to Roy Morgan’s unemployment & under-employment estimate of 24.5% for June released two weeks ago.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Unemployment jumps through June

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Original article by Lachlan Maddox
investordaily.com.au – Page: Online : 17-Jul-20

Unemployment in Australia rose to 7.4 per cent in June, according to the Australian Bureau Statistics, up from 7.1 per cent in May. However, Roy Morgan’s unemployment figures indicate that the unemployment rate has already reached 14.5 per cent, while the underemployment rate is 10.1 per cent. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the federal government needs to seriously consider extending the JobKeeper scheme beyond September, given Treasury figures that indicate around 3.5 million working Australians are relying on it.

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AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Melbourne set for harder lockdown

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Original article by Patrick Durkin
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 15-Jul-20

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews has warned that further coronavirus lockdown restrictions may be necessary in response to the rising number of infections in the state. Stage-four restrictions have yet to be imposed in any Australian jurisdiction, with metropolitan Melbourne land the Mitchell Shire currently subject to state-three restrictions. Chief Health Officer Dr Brett Sutton has also flagged the possibility of increased restrictions. Meanwhile, the Australian Defence Force will deploy an additional 1,000 personnel across the state to assist in containing the virus’s spread.

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VICTORIA. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET, VICTORIA. DEPT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES, AUSTRALIAN DEFENCE FORCE

NZ PM Jacinda Ardern on track for easy re-election as National’s leader Todd Muller resigns after fewer than two months in the job

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Jul-20

In June support for New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party was at 54.5% – down 2% since May, but still more than double the support for National on 27% (up only 0.5%) two months before the election in mid-September. If an election were held today Labour could govern without the help of either New Zealand First or the Greens. The large decline in support for National since being level with Labour on 40% in January prompted the Opposition to replace former leader Simon Bridges with Todd Muller in late May. The latest results for June show the change in leadership had a negligible impact on support for National and this week Muller resigned after less than two months in the job, citing health reasons. This New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ wide cross-section of 879 electors during June. Of all electors surveyed 6% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

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MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LABOUR PARTY (NEW ZEALAND), NATIONAL PARTY OF SOUTH AFRICA, NEW ZEALAND FIRST PARTY, GREEN PARTY OF AOTEAROA NEW ZEALAND, NEW ZEALAND. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Movement data in CBDs remains far below pre-COVID-19 levels

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Jul-20

A special analysis of movement data in the Sydney and Melbourne CBDs shows that neither have returned to anything like the levels of earlier in the year, even before the latest Stage 3 lockdown in Melbourne and renewed fears of an outbreak in Sydney. Roy Morgan has partnered with leading technology innovator UberMedia to aggregate data from tens of thousands of mobile devices to assess the movements of Australians as we deal with the restrictions imposed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of devices seen in the Sydney CBD during the first week of July averaged only 53% of the levels seen during January and February. In recent days, several new cases of COVID-19 have been discovered around Sydney and the prospect of a return to lockdown appears to be rising. Further south, the number of devices seen in the Melbourne CBD during the first week of July averaged only 39% of the levels seen earlier in the year. The Melbourne metropolitan area has had restrictions progressively tightened since mid-June and returned to a Stage 3 lockdown during the past week. Although restrictions eased in both cities during May, and early June, the movement data for both CBDs remained well below the average levels in the pre-COVID-19 period as working from home has remained the norm for many city office workers throughout this period.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, UBERMEDIA

Labor likely to back extension of IR changes

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 15-Jul-20

Labor has given indications that it will support an extension of coronavirus-induced temporary changes to workplace laws that allow employers to reduce their employees’ hours of work and change their duties and location of work. However, this would be conditional on the JobKeeper scheme being extended in the federal government’s upcoming economic statement. Labor leader Anthony Albanese says the government should announce details of any changes to the JobKeeper program immediately.

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AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Business in push to fast-track tax cuts

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Original article by Rosie Lewis, Joe Kelly
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 15-Jul-20

The Australian Chamber of Commerce & Industry has used its pre-budget submission to call for comprehensive tax reform, including bringing forward legislated personal income tax cuts. The ACCI also advocates a gradual reduction in the JobSeeker allowance to pre-coronavirus levels, while it says the domestic economy will be vulnerable to further shocks for several years due to the impact of COVID-19. Meanwhile, a Menzies Research Centre paper argues that all of the national cabinet’s decisions on coronavirus lockdowns measures should be subject to a cost-benefit analysis. The report by economists Henry Ergas and Joe Branigan was written before the new virus outbreaks in Melbourne and Sydney.

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AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, THE MENZIES RESEARCH CENTRE LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence slips 0.5 pts to 91.6 after Melbourne forced back into lockdown after surge of COVID-19 cases

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Jul-20

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 0.5pts to 91.6 in the week to 11/12 July, and is now at its lowest level since May 9/10 (90.3). Consumer Confidence is now 24.3pts lower than a year ago (115.9) and 3.3pts below the 2020 weekly average of 94.9. Now 21% (down 2ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 34% (down 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Meanwhile, 34% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 18% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Just 7% (unchanged) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 48% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. In addition, 33% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 36% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’. The four-week moving average for ‘inflation expectations’ was stable at 3.2%.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Black Lives Matter protest linked to tower cluster

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Original article by Rachel Baxendale
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 15-Jul-20

Victoria recorded 270 new coronavirus cases on 14 July, and there are now 1,803 active cases in the state. The national death toll has risen to 110 after two elderly persons in Victoria succumbed to the respiratory illness. Meanwhile, health authorities have confirmed a link between two COVID-19 cases associated with the Black Lives Matter rally on 6 June and the cluster at public housing towers in North Melbourne and Flemington, which now comprises 242 people. However, a Department of Health & Human Services spokesman says it is unlikely that the exact origin of many large clusters in the state will ever be determined.

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VICTORIA. DEPT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES