O75 Public Administration

RBA flags spectre of recession

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Original article by Matthew Cranston, Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 7 : 21-May-25

The Reserve Bank of Australia considered reducing the cash rate by 50 basis points on Tuesday, rather than its second 25 basis point cut so far in 2025. The central bank noted in its monetary policy statement that inflation is within its target band and is expected to remain there, so it deemed that an interest rate cut was appropriate. However, the RBA cautioned that although upside risks appear to have diminished, international developments are likely to weigh on the domestic economy. The RBA has downgraded its GDP growth forecast for the year to June from two per cent to 1.8 per cent, while it has warned of an outside chance that the Trump administration’s trade war could result in a global recession.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

No rush to strike a tariff deal with volatile Trump

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Original article by Cameron Stewart
The Australian – Page: 6 : 14-May-25

Australia is among more than 50 countries that hope to negotiate a better tariffs arrangement with the Trump administration in the wake of the global turmoil caused by the so-called ‘Liberation Day’ in early April. Australia failed to receive an exemption from the baseline tariff of 10 per cent and a tariff of 25 per cent on steel and aluminium exports, despite being one of the few countries that has a trade surplus with the US. However, government officials have indicated that Labor will adopt a "wait and see" approach, and assess the outcome of other countries’ negotiations with the US before seeking a deal on tariffs.

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UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Ley puts tax, economic reform on to-do list

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 14-May-25

Federal Opposition leader Sussan Ley has indicated that all of the Coalition’s policies will be up for review in the wake of the election defeat on 3 May. This includes nuclear energy and the net zero emissions target of 2050. Ley added that economic and tax reform will be priorities for the Coalition; she also committed to consulting with her colleagues and the community in reviewing the Coalition’s policies. Robert Carling from the Centre for Independent Studies says the Coalition needs to abandon ‘populist’ policies. Ley has become the Liberal Party’s first female leader at federal level, after defeating Angus Taylor 29-25 in a party room vote on Tuesday. New deputy leader Ted O’Brien is expected to replace Taylor as shadow treasurer.

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LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, THE CENTRE FOR INDEPENDENT STUDIES LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 0.8pts to 88.3 after the Albanese Labor Government was easily re-elected

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-May-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 0.8pts to 88.3 in the week to 11 May, after the Federal Government was re-elected with a two-party preferred swing of around 2.5%. Consumer Confidence is now 8.1 points above the same week a year ago (80.2), and 2pts above the 2025 weekly average of 86.3. Analysis by State shows increases in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia, but decreases in South Australia and Queensland. Now 18% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 43% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 30% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 28% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 13% (up 3ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the highest figure for this indicator since April 2022), while 26% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 36% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since March 2022).

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

In April Australian unemployment increased to 11.2% driven primarily by more people joining the workforce

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-May-25

In April 2025, Australian ‘real’ unemployment increased by 176,000 to 1,780,000 (up 1%, to 11.2% of the workforce), with more people joining the workforce and overall employment dropping. The expansion in the workforce was the main driver of the increase in unemployment with 156,000 people joining the workforce, lifting the number of Australians in the workforce to 15,946,000 (69.4% of Australians aged 14+). Overall employment fell slightly by 20,000 to 14,166,000; the decrease was driven by a drop in full-time employment (down 291,000 to 9,094,000), although part-time employment grew 271,000 to 5,072,000. In addition to the unemployed, 1.47 million Australians (9.2% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work (up 43,000 from March). In total 3.25 million Australians (20.4% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in April. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 11.2% is clearly more than double the ABS estimate of 4.1% for March, but is in line with the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.0%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Cabinet backs above-CPI wage rise for low paid

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 5 : 14-May-25

The newly sworn-in cabinet ministers have approved the federal government’s submission to the Fair Work Commission’s annual wage review. The submission will argue the case for an "economically sustainable real wage increase" for workers on the minimum wage and industry award wages. The government has not specified a percentage increase, although it says this must be above the inflation rate. The budget papers in March had forecast an inflation rate of 2.5 per cent in 2024-25 and three per cent in 2025-26. The ACTU has called for a minimum wage rise of 4.5 per cent from 1 July.

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AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, ACTU

Unease stirs inside Labor on super tax

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 14-May-25

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has confirmed that the federal government intends to proceed with legislation to double the tax rate on superannuation balances exceeding $3m and introduce a tax on unrealised capital gains. Some Labor MPs have expressed concern about the proposed superannuation tax changes, noting that the reforms had generated a lot of negative feedback at polling booths on election day. Independent MP Allegra Spender says that although Labor now has a mandate for superannuation tax reform. she contends that it is "bad policy" and should be reconsidered.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

‘Extreme, divisive politics’: Greens’ near-total wipe-out

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Original article by Clare Armstrong
Herald Sun – Page: Online : 8-May-25

Sky News and the ABC have both declared that Labor’s Sarah Witty has won the seat of Melbourne, which Greens leader Adam Bandt has held since 2010. However, a Greens spokeswoman has stated that the minor party has yet not conceded defeat in the previously safe seat, arguing that "many thousands of votes" have not yet been counted. The Greens are hopeful that more than 15,000 absentee and declaration votes will favour Bandt. Commenting on Bandt’s defeat, a Labor source said "he’ll blame Labor, he’ll blame the Liberals, he’ll blame voters, but he’ll never blame himself". The Greens went into the federal election with four MPs in the lower house, but Stephen Bates and Max Chandler-Mather have also lost their seats and Elizabeth Warren-Brown’s seat of Ryan in Queensland is in doubt. Greens senators Sarah Hanson-Young and Mehreen Faruqi are believed to be the frontrunners to succeed Bandt.

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AUSTRALIAN GREENS, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Liberal MPs urge unity leadership ticket as Abbott questions conviction

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Original article by Sarah Ison, Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 5 : 8-May-25

Liberal Party insiders contend that an increasingly acrimonious leadership contest is undermining efforts to rebuild in the wake of Saturday’s election rout. Sussan Ley, Dan Tehan and Angus Taylor are expected to be in contention to succeed Peter Dutton as Opposition leader. Supporters of Ley have rejected claims that she has offered prime shadow cabinet portfolios in exchange for votes in a leadership ballot. A number of Liberal MPs have called for Ley and Tehan to run on a ‘unity ticket’, with some suggesting that the latter would garner enough support to be deputy leader but not enough to take the top job. Meanwhile, former prime minister Tony Abbott says the Liberals’ leadership has lacked "courage and conviction" in recent times.

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LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Labor to push ahead on super tax

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Original article by Phillip Coorey, Sumeyya Ilanbey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 8-May-25

The federal government has indicated that reducing the higher education debt of students and graduates by $16bn with be its first legislative priority for its second term in office. Labor has also reaffirmed its commitment to superannuation reform, including the controversial tax on unrealised capital gains. The reforms had been intended to take effect on 1 July but were rejected by the Senate earlier in 2025 due to opposition from a number of crossbenchers; however, they will be sidelined in the new Senate given that Labor and the Greens will have a majority in the upper house.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS