O75 Public Administration

Economy to contract almost 4pc in 2020

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Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 23 : 6-Apr-20

The median forecast of economists is that the Australian economy will contract by 3.9 per cent in calendar 2020, and by 1.1 per cent in the year to 30 June. The quarterly survey of economics also shows that the economy is expected to contract by 1.5 per cent in 2020-21, while economic growth is not forecast to rebound from the coronavirus until the end of 2021. Meanwhile, economists generally expect the unemployment rate to peak at 8.5 per cent by the end of June 2020, compared with 5.1 per cent at present. The inflation rate in turn is forecast to be 1.4 per cent in June, falling to 1.25 per cent by the end of the year.

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Social restrictions slowing the spread

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 2 : 6-Apr-20

The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in Australia rose by just 139 on 5 April, or 2.5 per cent. The nation’s infection rate was rising by an average of 25 per cent each day just two weeks ago. Chief Health Officer Brendan Murphy says the latest figures show that efforts to contain the virus are continuing to ‘flatten the curve’, and he is optimistic that measures such as lockdowns and social distancing will allow the nation to avoid the large-scale crisis that has hit some countries. However, the nation’s death toll from the virus has risen to 35; three of the four new fatalities in New South Wales had been on the ‘Ruby Princess’ cruise ship.

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AUSTRALIA. OFFICE OF THE CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER

How Australia’s coronavirus stimulus stacks up against global competition

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Original article by Matt Johnson
The New Daily – Page: Online : 3-Apr-20

The International Monetary Fund has called on countries to enact ‘wartime measures’ to rescue economies crippled by the impact of COVID-19. Measures announced by the Australian government include a $130 billion wage subsidy plan and a $20 billion loan scheme. The UK has announced it will subsidise employees’ wages up to a value of Stg2,500 ($5,086) a month, while the US has introduced a $2.2 trillion rescue package that includes a controversial $500 billion corporate bailout fund to help big business.

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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Government unveils new jobs site as economists revise down unemployment forecasts

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Original article by Euan Black
The New Daily – Page: Online : 3-Apr-20

More than 26,000 vacancies have been listed on the federal government’s new Jobs Hub website, and this is expected to top 50,000 in the next week. The site features employment opportunities across a range of industries. The launch of Jobs Hub has coincided with the release of official data showing that the number of job vacancies nationwide fell by 0.1 per cent in February and 2.2 per cent year-on-year. Meanwhile, Westpac now expects the unemployment rate to peak at nine per cent – rather than its previous forecast of 17 per cent – due to the government’s wage subsidy scheme.

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WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Free childcare in $3bn family relief package

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Original article by Geoff Chambers, Rosie Lewis
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 3-Apr-20

Nearly one million families will be eligible to receive free childcare under a coronavirus package announced by the federal government. The package is expected to cost over $3 billion and run for six months, with children of essential workers, vulnerable children and parents with existing childcare placements to be given priority under the scheme. Liz Christie, the director of a Goodstart long daycare centre in Brisbane’s CBD, says the government’s announcement is a huge relief. She says the centre’s numbers have fallen from more than 200 to around 60, and that many of the parents are essential workers.

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GOODSTART EARLY LEARNING LIMITED

Self-isolation measures lead to plunge in movement of people in Melbourne and at places of interest

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Apr-20

Roy Morgan has partnered with leading technological innovator UberMedia to aggregate data from tens of thousands of mobile devices to assess the impact of new Government regulations on social distancing designed to slow the spread of the coronavirus throughout Australia. The aggregate data compiled allows governments and health agencies to assess what types of Australians are still visiting Australia’s cities and places of interest via integration of the movement data with the in-depth psychographic profiling capabilities of Roy Morgan Helix Personas. The first Australian death from COVID-19 coronavirus was reported on March 1 and from that point the trend for movement data in the Melbourne CBD has changed and rapidly declined since mid-March. In Melbourne we have noticed sharp drop-offs in movement data for several key locations including the Airport, Arts Centre, Botanic Gardens, Chinatown, Federation Square, Flinders Street Station, Museum and Exhibition Buildings, Southern Cross Station, Williamstown Beach Station and the Zoo. There have also been rapid declines in movement data in the last week of March for several key shopping destinations including Chadstone, Highpoint, Southland, The Glen, Werribee Shopping Centre and Costco Docklands.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, UBERMEDIA

Self-isolation measures lead to plunge in movement of people in Sydney and at places of interest

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Apr-20

Roy Morgan and UberMedia aren’t just measuring movement data in Sydney’s central business district but also in key places of interest around the city and surrounds. The utility of the data allows precise targeting of locations throughout Australia to assess how movement data is changing as Australia’s are required to self-isolate to stop the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus. In Sydney we have noticed sharp drop-offs in movement data for several key locations including the Airport, Central and Redfern Stations, Sydney’s Taronga Zoo and shopping centres including Chatswood, Marketplace Leichhardt, Stockland Balgowlah, Westfield Bondi and Warringah. The drop off in movement has not been as significant at particular locations including stores stocking essential goods such as Coles Broadway, Woolworths Erskineville and Costco Lidcombe.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, UBERMEDIA

Nearly nine-in-ten Australians (85%) think the worst is yet to come over the next month in regards to COVID-19

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 31-Mar-20

Nearly nine-in-ten Australians (85%) say the ‘Worst is yet to come’ over the next month in regards to the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic; however only 43% of Australians agree that the Australian Government is handling the Coronavirus well, according to a special Roy Morgan web survey of an Australia-wide cross-section of 988 Australians aged 18+ conducted over the weekend of March 28-29. Australians are more pessimistic than their counterparts in the UK, with 82% of Britons answering that the ‘Worst is yet to come’ over the next month. While only 43% of Australians agree that the Australian Government is handling the Coronavirus well, the result in the UK is slightly higher at 49%. Interviewing in the UK was conducted on the prior weekend of March 18-20, with a UK-wide cross-section of 2,094 respondents aged 18+ by the London-based ORB International, which is the UK Member of the Gallup International Association and affiliated with Roy Morgan. It is important to compare the Australian and United Kingdom results, as both countries are facing the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic which poses a threat to livelihoods. Australia and the UK share a similar culture so these questions will be repeated in both Australia and the UK over the coming weeks.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, ORB INTERNATIONAL

Unions warn huge chunk of casual workforce could miss out on coronavirus wage subsidy

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Original article by Euan Black
The New Daily – Page: Online : 31-Mar-20

Full-time and part-time workers will be eligible for the JobKeeper wage subsidy, as will casual workers who have been with the same employer for at least 12 months. However, ACTU secretary Sally McManus says the wage subsidy should be available to all casual workers, adding that it should be increased to $1,375 per week rather than $1,500 per fortnight. Gerard Dwyer, the national president of the Shop, Distributive & Allied Employees’ Association, also supports extending the payment to all casual workers, as well as visa workers.

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ACTU, SHOP, DISTRIBUTIVE AND ALLIED EMPLOYEES’ ASSOCIATION

Federal Government offers $130b in coronavirus wage subsidies for businesses to pay workers

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Original article by Brett Worthington
abc.net.au – Page: Online : 31-Mar-20

Prime Minister Scott Morrison expects about six million Australians to access the federal government’s JobKeeper payment. He says there will be a legal obligation on employers to pass the full wage subsidy of up to $1,500 per fortnight on to employees. Morrison adds that unlike the UK wage subsidy, it is aimed at keeping people in jobs rather than targeting workers who have been stood down. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg says the subsidy equates to about 70 per cent of the median wage and around 100 per cent of the median wage for sectors that have been impacted the most by the coronavirus pandemic.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY