O75 Public Administration

$250bn GDP forgone on weaker growth

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 30-Apr-25

Australia’s productivity growth has averaged just 0.2 per cent a year over the last decade. The Coalition has committed to a new productivity growth target of 1.5 per cent a year if it wins the election on Saturday. In contrast, Labor’s first budget in 2022 included the assumption that productivity growth would average 1.2 per cent over the long-term. The Coalition contends that annual GDP would be about $250bn higher if productivity had grown at this pace, while annual tax revenue would have been $50bn higher.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Albanese’s budget deficit lie challenged

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Original article by Phillip Coorey, John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 30-Apr-25

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is continuing to attract scrutiny over his claims regarding the size of the budget deficit that Labor inherited in May 2022. Albanese recently responded to a report from S&P Global on the future of Australia’s triple-A credit rating by stating that the Coalition had left Labor with a $78bn deficit, which it subsequently turned into a $22bn surplus. However, the $78bn deficit was merely a Treasury forecast during the 2022 election campaign, and the final budget outcome for 2021-22 was a deficit of just $32bn. The surplus of $22bn was in fact for 2022-23, which was Labor’s first full financial year in office.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

The Final Showdown: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s last debate before the Federal Election

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Apr-25

On Sunday night Channel Seven hosted the final Leaders’ Debate between Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton. Roy Morgan provided the studio audience of ‘undecided voters’ to assess both leaders on key questions. The results were conclusively in favour of Albanese, who won on five out of 7 questions – and overall. Importantly, his biggest win was on the Cost of Living – 65% of the undecided voters agreed with Albanese, compared to only 16% for Dutton. The Opposition Leader performed well on two issues, winning on the issue of Defence (Dutton on 43%, just ahead of Albanese on 37%) and a clear win on Indigenous Affairs (Dutton on 46% compared to Albanese on 27%). Overall though, the verdict was clear; Albanese easily won the debate, attracting 50% support of the undecided voters compared to only 25% who said Dutton won the debate; a further 25% of the audience was still undecided. The strong result for Albanese in this debate augurs well for the Government as we head towards election day on Saturday.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Chalmers stakes future on staying AAA

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Original article by Greg Brown, Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 30-Apr-25

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has downplayed concerns that Australia’s coveted ‘AAA’ credit rating may be downgraded. S&P Global has warned of this possibility due to election campaign promises and the growing use of so-called ‘off-budget’ spending. Chalmers says the federal govermment respects the global ratings agency and concedes that its "opinion matters". However, he adds that Labor’s "responsible economic management" means there would be no reason for a credit rating downgrade if it retains office on Saturday. The Australian Chamber of Commerce & Industry’s CEO Andrew McKellar says the S&P report is a "wake-up call" for both of the major political parties, and that budget repair must be a priority for the next government.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, S&P GLOBAL INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY

Tax warning for 130,000: Labor out to get you

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 6 : 29-Apr-25

The federal government is continuing to attract scrutiny over its plans to tax the unrealised capital gains of superannuation funds. Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor says Labor is "coming after superannuation", despite stating prior to the 2022 election that it did not plan to do so; he adds that the policy will particularly affect people such as farmers and small business owners. However, Treasurer Jim Chalmers says it is only a "modest change" that will affect a small number of people with more than $3m in their superannuation fund. Meanwhile, Wilson Asset Management chairman Geoff Wilson has expressed concern about the policy in a letter to the firm’s 130,000 investors.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, WILSON ASSET MANAGEMENT

Cultural heritage laws face overhaul

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Original article by Mohammad Alfares
The Australian – Page: 9 : 29-Apr-25

Shadow Indigenous Australians minister Jacinta Nampijinpa Price says a Coalition government will overhaul the nation’s cultural heritage protection laws, and that it will introduce a "national interest test" for cultural heritage claims. Nampijinpa Price said a national register of culturally significant sites would be set up to accelerate approvals, fees and processing times for cultural heritage applications will be capped, and penalties for making false cultural heritage claims would be introduced. She accused Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek of "dropping the ball" on promised heritage reforms, saying the federal government had preferred to listen to ‘fringe groups’ rather than doing what was best for Indigenous Australians and local communities.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY, THE ENVIRONMENT AND WATER

Overseas students to cop 25pc visa fee hike

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Original article by Natasha Bita
The Australian – Page: 7 : 29-Apr-25

International students currently pay $1,600 to apply for a visa, but the federal government proposes to increase this to $2,000 from 1 July. Finance Minister Katy Gallagher says the 25 per cent increase is a "sensible and modest change" that puts an appropriate price on the benefits of studying in Australia. However, Universities Australia CEO Luke Sheehy says the nation already has the world’s highest student visa fees, while the Regional Universities Network has warned that the proposed increase will affect the desirability and competitiveness of Australia in the international education market.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FINANCE, UNIVERSITIES AUSTRALIA LIMITED, REGIONAL UNIVERSITIES NETWORK

Labor releases election promise costings including saving of $6.4bn from cutting more consultants

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Original article by Henry Belot, Patrick Commins
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 29-Apr-25

Treasurer Jim Chalmers released the federal government’s election policy costings on Monday. Amongst other things, Labor expects to reduce government expenditure by about $6.4bn over four years by further reducing the use of consultants and labour firms. Finance Minister Katy Gallagher says the proposed cutbacks will not affect the quality of the service provided by federal public servants. The government’s plan to increase visa application fees for international students is in turn expected to boost revenue by about $760m.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FINANCE

PM scores AAA for denial

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Original article by Greg Brown, Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 29-Apr-25

S&P Global has warned that Australia’s coveted ‘AAA’ credit rating is at risk due to the erosion of "sound fiscal management". The firm has raised concern about how the major political parties will fund their election promises if they win the election on 3 May, noting that the budget deficit could widen if the election promises are not funded via revenue or cost savings. S&P also expressed concern about the growing use of so-called ‘off-budget’ spending. However, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has rejected suggestions that Australia could face a credit rating downgrade, while Treasurer Jim Chalmers says Opposition leader Peter Dutton and the Coalition are the biggest risk to the nation’s credit rating.

CORPORATES
S&P GLOBAL RATINGS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Roy Morgan Poll: ALP in front but two-party preferred lead cut significantly as early voting favours the Coalition: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Apr-25

If a Federal Election were held last weekend the ALP would have been returned to Government with an increased majority with the ALP on 53% (up 0.9% from the 2022 Federal Election) ahead of the L-NP Coalition on 47% (down 0.9%) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds. This result represents a two-party preferred swing of 2.5% to the L-NP Coalition compared to a week ago. Despite the large two-party preferred swing, primary support for the major parties was little changed with the Coalition on 34.5% (up 0.5%) now just ahead of the ALP on 34% (down 0.5%). Support for the Greens dropped 1.5% to 13% and One Nation increased 1.5% to 7.5%. This is not a ‘direct transfer’ of voting intention but indicates movement between the two major parties and the two key minor parties of the ‘left’ (Greens) and the ‘right’ (One Nation). An unchanged 11% support other minor parties and independents. Within that bloc, the largest support is for so-called ‘Teal Independents’ (2%) and Clive Palmer’s ‘Trumpet of Patriots’ (1.5%). These results take into account that minor parties and independents are not running in every seat.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY, TRUMPET OF PATRIOTS