O75 Public Administration

ALP regains two-party preferred lead as Coalition loses ground: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 23-Apr-24

In a week that saw Israeli strikes on Iran which had the potential to set off a wider war in the Middle East, two knife attacks in Sydney, and the judgment handed down against Bruce Lehrmann, the Labor Government has regained the lead with support up 3% to 52% to be ahead of the Coalition on 48% (down 3%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be re-elected with a slim majority as they have now, the latest Roy Morgan survey shows. Primary support for the ALP increased 0.5% to 30.5% but is still behind the Coalition on 35.5%, down 3%. A look at the support by gender shows women’s support for the Coalition dropped significantly this week – by nearly 4% to only 32% after Justice Michael Lee handed down his judgment in the Lehrmann case. Men’s support for the Coalition was down 2.5% to 39%. Support for the Greens returned to, and marginally exceeded, its highs of two weeks ago, up 2.5% to 16% while One Nation was unchanged at 5.5%. Support for Independents was unchanged at 7.5% and support for Other Parties was unchanged at 5%. The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,617 Australian electors from April 15-21, 2024. When comparing different polls it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls. Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by CEO Michele Levine.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

3pc wage rises may be new norm: NAB

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 23-Apr-24

Annual productivity growth averaged 1.2 per cent in the decade prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, but National Australia Bank believes that productivity growth is likely to average 0.5 per in coming years. The mining investment boom was a major driver of pre-pandemic productivity growth, and NAB senior economist Taylor Nugent contends that returning to this level of growth would require a substantial rise in non-mining productivity. NAB warns that lower productivity growth means that workers should expect annual pay increases of no more than three per cent in coming years.

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NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Economy, rates in a holding pattern

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Original article by Eli Greenblat
The Australian – Page: 15 : 23-Apr-24

Deloitte Access Economics has claimed that the Australian economy is in a "holding pattern", while it does not expect the Reserve Bank to move on interest rates until November. Deloitte states that inflation is beginning to recede, while it expects around 100,000 people will lose their jobs by the end of the year, lifting the unemployment rate to 4.6 per cent. It notes that the revamped stage three tax cuts will take effect in the second half of the year, boosting disposable income, but that the housing crisis remains a concern.

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DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

China rebuff in PM’s Anzac Day PNG push

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Original article by Tom McIlroy
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 23-Apr-24

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has arrived in Port Moresby ahead of a week of Anzac Day commemorations, with Albanese and PNG Prime Minister James Marape to walk part of the Kokoda Trail during his visit. Speaking at PNG’s parliament, Albanese said that Pacific nations should be "free to pursue their own destiny and secure their own future", with his visit just days after China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi criticised jostling for regional influence, with Wang claiming that Pacific countries "are not the backyard" of any nation".

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Anti-Israel ACTU stirs Jewish fury

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Original article by John Ferguson, Damon Johnston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 23-Apr-24

The ACTU has called on the federal government to cease military trade with Israel, provide Gaza and the West Bank with a further $100 million in aid, and enforce targeted sanctions against Israeli government officials. It represents the ACTU’s strongest statement on the Israel-Hamas conflict since it began in October; its timing has angered the Jewish community, given that it has been issued on the eve of the holy festival of Passover. Commenting on the statement, Zionist Federation of Australia president Jeremy Leibler says the ACTU appears to be living in an ‘alternative reality’ that ignores the fact that the conflict was started by Hamas, and that it is still holding 130 hostages.

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ACTU, ZIONIST FEDERATION OF AUSTRALIA

PM calls for unity amid the unease

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Original article by Joe Kelly
The Australian – Page: 5 : 17-Apr-24

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese convened a meeting of cabinet’s National Security Committee on Tuesday morning in response to the stabbing of a Christian bishop, which has been designated a terrorist attack by NSW police. Albanese says the attack is being investigated by a joint counter-terrorism team. He has urged Australians to unite, and stressed that respect for each other must be maintained at all times. ASIO’s director-general Mike Burgess says the terrorist attack appears to be religiously motivated, but he adds that the 16-year-old perpetrator seems to have acted alone. Burgess also says Australia’s terrorism threat level remains at ‘possible’.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, asio see AUSTRALIAN SECURITY INTELLIGENCE ORGANISATION

NACC for Higgins compo deal truth

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Original article by Ellie Dudley
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 17-Apr-24

Former NSW judge Anthony Whealy says the $2.445m compensation payout to alleged rape victim Brittany Higgins should be investigated by the National Anti-Corruption Commission. Healy says the NACC could not "ignore altogether" the findings of Federal Court judge Michael Lee in Bruce Lehrmann’s failed defamation case against the Ten Network; Justice Lee found that Higgins had told a number of untruths regarding the alleged incident at Parliament House in March 2019. Former Western Australian judge Kenneth Martin in turn says Justice Lee’s findings mean that the federal government may be able to seek to recover the payout to the former Liberal staffer.

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AUSTRALIA. NATIONAL ANTI-CORRUPTION COMMISSION, FEDERAL COURT OF AUSTRALIA, TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1.6 points to 83.5 – the highest for over two months since early February

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Apr-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.6pts to 83.5 in the week to 14 April; however, despite the increase the index has now spent a record 63 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 6.3 points above the same week a year ago (77.2), and virtually identical to the 2024 weekly average of 83.0. Consumer Confidence was up in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, but down in Western Australia and South Australia. Now 22% of Australians (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 50% (down 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 33% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 11% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 33% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 23% (up 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 47% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence drops 3.5pts to 98.0 in March as the index fails to build on momentum of positive result in February

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Apr-24

In March 2024, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 98.0 (down 3.5pts since February) as the index fell back into negative territory despite the Reserve Bank leaving interest rates unchanged. Business Confidence is now 13.2pts below the long-term average of 111.24). However, Business Confidence is up 4.4pts since March 2023. Driving the index lower in March was less confidence about the performance of the Australian economy. Now 43.9% (down 3.7ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the economy over the next year, while just 38.9% (down 4.3ppts) expect ‘good times’ over the next five years. In contrast to the economy more broadly, businesses have grown significantly more confident about their own prospects over the year ahead, with 49.6% (up 4.8ppts) expecting to be ‘better off’ this time next year; this is the highest rating for this indicator since February 2022. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for March are based on 1,605 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

IMF warns of stalling progress to reduce inflation

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 2 : 17-Apr-24

The International Monetary Fund now expects global economic growth of 3.2 per cent in both 2024 and 2025. However, the IMF notes that the outlook remains uncertain due to factors such as China’s embattled property sector and the risk that wars in Europe and the Middle East will escalate. The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook report also notes that the global economy is still "remarkably resilient", and it is optimistic that central banks will be able to achieve a soft landing for economies. The IMF has forecast economic growth of 1.5 per cent for Australia in 2024, and two per cent next year.

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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND