The ALP 51% leads the L-NP 49% on a two party preferred basis according to a face-to-face Roy Morgan Poll conducted on the Easter weekend of April 20/21, 2019 with a cross-section of 707 electors.

The tight result at Easter means the Roy Morgan Poll has swung by 1.5% to the L-NP since the prior surveying period of April 6/7 & 13/14, 2019.

Primary Voting Intention

The L-NP now has a primary vote of 39% (up 1.5%) and clearly ahead of the ALP on 35.5% (down 1%) while Greens support is down 1.5% to 9.5%.

Support for One Nation is up 1% to 4.5% while support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is up 0.5% to 2%. Support for Independents/Others is now 9.5% (down 0.5%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence

Roy Morgan Government Confidence has improved this week with 40% of electors saying Australia is now heading in the right direction, up 1% from a week earlier while 41% (down 1.5%) say Australia is heading in the wrong direction.

These results leave Government Confidence below the neutral level of 100 and indicate the ALP is still the favourite to win with early voting opening next week although the L-NP has closed the gap significantly during the last week.

 

Electors were asked: “At the Federal election for the House of Representatives on May 18 – which party will receive your first preference?? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Roy Morgan Government Confidence was conducted via face-to-face interviewing on the first weekend of April. Roy Morgan interviewed 707 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekends of April 20/21, 2019. 3.5% of electors can’t say who they support.

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 151 electorates ranked by an issue).

For further information:

Contact	Office	Mobile
Gary Morgan:	+61 3 9224 5213	+61 411 129 094
Michele Levine:	+61 3 9224 5215	+61 411 129 093

By Gary Morgan & Michele Levine, Directors of Roy Morgan Research Ltd publisher of ABIX

1. Roy Morgan Research Ltd – Australian based with operations also in New Zealand, Indonesia, US and UK – 81.5% owned by Gary Morgan and family, 13.3% Michele Levine (CEO) and 5.2% present & former employees/consultants.        http://www.roymorgan.com

2. Nielsen – US based multinational valued at about $US17b – at present for sale with 8.4% owned by hedge fund Elliott Management – throughout the world conducts retail audits, net ratings and TV ratings.
   https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/05/nielsen-acquisition-advent-goldman-apollo-considering.html

3. Ipsos – French owned multinational conducts The Age/SMH Poll, recently purchased four divisions from GFK.
   https://www.ipsos.com/en-au/ipsos-world

4. YouGov owners of Galaxy – a major UK based public opinion and social research company.
   https://today.yougov.com/about/about
   https://mumbrella.com.au/yougov-acquires-galaxy-research-489774

5. Newspoll – public opinion polls conducted by YouGov and published in The Australian.

6. Essential Poll – conducted by Essential Media Communications the holding company is The Essential Research and Communications Group Pty Ltd. The shares are held equally by Peter Lewis & James Douglas but the shares are not beneficially held (owner not known). Conduct Robo-Polling; clients as published include Shop Distributive & Allied Employees Association Nat Branch, United Firefighters’ Union of Australia-Victorian Branch and Federal Australian Education Union.
   https://www.essentialmedia.com.au/our-history

7. uComms/ReachTEL Poll – three equal shareholders of UComms are ACTU secretary Sally McManus, CFMMEU national secretary Michael O’Connor and James Stewart, a former executive of ReachTEL who conducted Robo-Polling.
   https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-10/political-polling-company-ucomms-ties-to-unions-cfmmeu-and-actu/10945798

8. ReachTEL – Known for using low-cost Robo-Polling ReachTel is a wholly owned subsidiary of Equifax – the NYSE listed data and analytics company.https://www.reachtel.com.au/about

9. DBM Consultants – conducts customer satisfaction surveys for all major Australian bank covering both business customers and personal customers – controlled and 51% owned by an ultimate holding Chinese company –  Shanghai Illuminera Marketing Strategy Consulting Co Ltd.
   https://www.dbmconsultants.com.au/who-we-are

10. ORC International Pty Ltd trading as Engine Asia Pacific – US based corporation recently awarded by Federal Government Tourism Research tender (Contract Notice View – CN3566082) for $18,950,385.20 (not lowest) to collected personal information on overseas tourist visiting Australia (Per year: 1.4 million Chinese spending $10.4b).
    https://enginegroup.com/apac

11. The Social Research Centre owned by the Australian National University.
    https://www.srcentre.com.au
    

12. Emma conducted by NewsMediaWorks – supplier of media information from surveys conducted by IPSOS & Nielsen – NewsMediaWorks is majority owned and controlled by News Corp.
    https://www.emma.com.au/about

13. GFK – German multinational research company – conducts Australian commercial radio ratings.
    https://www.gfk.com/en-au

14. Kantar Group includes Taylor Nelson – owned by WPP, the world’s largest multinational advertising agency based in the UK.
    http://www.tnsglobal.com/office/australia-1

15. IRI – US based multinational – conducts mainly retail research.
    https://www.iriworldwide.com/en-AU

16. Most major advertising agencies and accounting firms conduct surveys for their clients, they usually sub-contract the field work.

 

● New digital candidate created to shift the national conversation and end short-termism

● Powered by most comprehensive data ever compiled on Australians’ concerns

● Top 3 Issues – Cost of living, improving health services, open & honest government

In a first for Australian politics, a digital candidate powered by data insights from real Australians has entered the Federal election race, to shift our national conversation from short-term problems to long-term solutions.

Australia is stuck in a cycle of political short-termism and The Perfect Candidate is an unbiased voice of the people, driven by the most authoritative research ever released on Australians’ concerns.

The Perfect Candidate is driven by data not bias and launching their campaign today in Sydney, they aim to empower Australians to hold our politicians to account and to ignite discussion amongst leaders and citizens about our long-term future.

Created by the Australian Futures Project , a non-partisan, not-for profit organisation dedicated to ending short-termism in Australia, The Perfect Candidate allows Australians to search and understand key concerns of their local electorate and the whole country.

Using data and analysis from Roy Morgan, policy statements on the websites of the political parties and independents and insights from the Australian Futures Project, Australians can compare these concerns to what is being prioritised and talked about by politicians, ultimately holding them to account.

For example, the public can go online and ask The Perfect Candidate to show them what the political parties and independents are focused on compared to the top issues in their electorate. Users are then prompted to ‘change the conversation’ by reaching out via social media or their local talk-back radio stations to share their concerns and ask their leaders what they are doing to fix them.

Australian Futures Project Executive Director, Ralph Ashton, said the launch of The Perfect Candidate capitalised on the looming Federal election to shift our national conversation from short-term problems to long-term solutions.

“The Perfect Candidate might not be a real person, but they are a real voice of the people. They listen and learn from the Australian public – evolving as they do,” Mr Ashton said.

“Politicians aren’t focused on what Australians really care about. And you can’t blame voters for switching off. The public has stopped listening because the politicians stopped listening. If politicians want to engage with Australians in a meaningful conversation, they need to focus on solutions to the big issues.

“Our intention is to empower Australians to better understand politics, so they can ultimately shift the national conversation from short-term problems to long-term solutions.

“Whether you’re conservative, progressive, or green; young, old, or middle-aged; in the country or the city, The Perfect Candidate empowers Australians to hold our leaders to account and share that knowledge – knowledge is power and when shared, that power multiplies,” Mr Ashton said.

An online conversation with The Perfect Candidate reveals that ‘keeping day to day living costs down’ is the top concern among Australians, with half (48 per cent) naming it a top three issue.

The 30-month data is representative of the concerns of Australians during the present Federal Parliament, and also shows that ‘Improving health services and hospitals’ is a top three issue among 31 per cent of Australians, followed by open and honest government’ which ranks third and is of concern for 26 per cent of voters.

Australians can engage with The Perfect Candidate via www.theperfectcandidate.org.au or by following The Perfect Candidate on Twitter @TPCandidate or using the hashtag #changetheconversation.

 

TOP 10 CONCERNS ACCORDING TO THE PERFECT CANDIDATE

30-month data from Australian Futures Project and Roy Morgan is representative of the concerns of Australians during the present Federal Parliament:

1. Keeping day to day living costs down (47.8%)
2. Improving health services and hospitals (31%)
3. Open and honest government (25.6%)
4. Global warming and climate change (22.9%)
5. Managing the economy (21.7%)
6. Improving education (20.8%)
7. Reducing crime and maintain law and order (20.7%)
8. Reducing unemployment (14.6%)
9. Managing immigration and population growth (14.4%)
10. Reducing the taxes you and your family pay (13.9%)

***Please note all when sourcing data, please refer to it as ‘Data from Australian Futures Project and Roy Morgan.’

View the full PDF of this Press Release here.

A face-to-face Roy Morgan Poll conducted over the weekend of April 6/7, 2019 with 809 Australian electors shows the ALP 52.5% (down 2.5% from before the Federal Budget) lead the L-NP 47.5% (up 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis.

The ALP has a primary vote of 35% (down 1.5%) now just behind the L-NP on 37% (up 2.5%). Support for the Greens is up by 1% to 13.5%.

Support for the minor parties is led by One Nation on 4% (up 0.5%), ahead of Clive Palmer’s United Australian Party on 1.5% (down 0.5%), Australian Conservatives on 1% (unchanged) and Katter’s Australian Party 0.5% (unchanged). A further 7.5% (down 2%) support Independents and micro parties.

Right Direction down 1% as Government Confidence dips to 99.5

Following the Federal Budget Roy Morgan’s Government Confidence Rating was down by 2pts to 99.5 for the weekend of April 6/7, 2019.

Now 40.5% (down 1%) of electors say ‘Australia is heading in the ‘right direction’ and 41% (up 1%) say Australia is heading in the wrong direction’ and 18.5% (unchanged) can’t say.

Government Confidence for L-NP supporters was down slightly by 2pts to 124.5 with 54.5% (unchanged) of L-NP supporters saying ‘Australia is heading in the right direction’ compared to 30% (up 2%) that say ‘Australia is heading in the wrong direction’.

Government Confidence for ALP supporters was down by 5pts to 93 with 37.5% (down 2.5%) saying ‘Australia is heading in the right direction’ and 44.5% (up 2.5%) that say ‘Australia is heading in the wrong direction’.

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Roy Morgan Government Confidence was conducted via face-to-face interviewing on the first weekend of April. Roy Morgan interviewed 829 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekends of April 6/7, 2019. 4.5% of electors can’t say who they support.

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 151 electorates ranked by an issue).