AUSTRALIA – ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

Over a third of Australians say 2022 will be a year of Economic difficulty while 19% expect Economic prosperity

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Dec-21

A special Roy Morgan web survey taken in late November shows that 37% Australians think 2022 will be a year of ‘Economic difficulty’. This is down 11% on a year ago when 48% of Australians predicted ‘Economic difficulty’ for 2021. For the second straight year only 19% of Australians think next year will be a year of ‘Economic prosperity’. Nearly half of all Australians think next year will either ‘Remain the same’ (37%) or don’t know (7%) how the economy will perform. Analysis by State shows that a plurality of people in the largest States think next year will be a year of ‘Economic difficulty’, led by Queensland (43%), Victoria (38%) and New South Wales (35%). However, in Western Australia (46%) and South Australia (45%), a clear plurality of people expect in economic terms next year will ‘Remain the same’. Australians are not as positive about next year’s economic prospects as they are about whether 2022 in a more general sense will be ‘better’ or ‘worse’ than 2021. As we revealed previously, despite being down on a year ago, 37% of Australians say 2022 will be ‘better’ than 2021 compared to only 23% that say it will be ‘worse’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Fall in job vacancies largest on record

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: Online : 26-Jun-20

The Australian Bureau Statistics has revealed that job vacancies ads fell by 43 per cent between February and May, making it the biggest fall on record. Ads for private sector jobs were down 45 per cent, while public sector jobs declined by 29 per cent. Job ads in the arts and recreation industry slumped by 95 per cent, ads in the rental, hiring and real estate sector were down 68 per cent, while the accommodation and food services recorded a 66 per cent decline in job ads. However, job ads on the Seek website as of the week to 21 June were at around 70 per cent of pre-COVID levels, suggesting some signs of recovery since April, which was viewed as the worst month for vacancies.

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AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, SEEK LIMITED – ASX SEK

Wall St in the driving seat

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Original article by Terry McCrann
Sunday Herald Sun – Page: 57 : 7-Jun-20

Wall Street is now just eight per cent below its record high of late February, while the Australian sharemarket is still about 15 per cent off its pre-coronavirus peak. Wall St continues to drive the entire global financial system, in addition to sharemarkets across the world. Although Wall Street will drag the Australian market higher, the local bourse lacks the 21st century stocks that are leading the rebound. Meanwhile, a second wave of coronavirus infections would be devastating for the Australian economy; despite data from Roy Morgan showing that jobless numbers fell by 69,000 in May, the domestic economy will not quickly return to its pre-pandemic levels.

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Cost of beating virus: recession

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Original article by Patrick Commins,Geoff Chambers
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 4-Jun-20

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has confirmed that the Australian economy is in recession for the first time in 29 years. GDP data shows that the economy contracted by 0.3 per cent in the March quarter, while economic growth slowed from 2.2 per cent to 1.4 per cent in the year to March. Frydenberg has also warned that the economic contraction in the June quarter will be much worse; economists expect GDP growth to fall by 6-9 per cent as the full impact of the coronavirus lockdown restrictions took effect. Meanwhile, the federal government has delayed its mini-budget until 23 July, which will allow it to assess how the economy fares after lockdown restrictions are fully lifted.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Australia recession: Graph that rings economists’ alarm bells

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Original article by Samantha Maiden
News.com.au – Page: Online : 4-Jun-20

The national accounts data shows that Australia’s household saving rate rose slightly to 5.5 per cent in the March quarter, its highest level since the September 2016 quarter. Callam Pickering, the chief economist at Indeed, says data indicating that people are earning less and saving more is often the cause of a recession. He adds that encouraging households and businesses to return to pre-coronavirus spending levels will be a major challenge as lockdown restrictions are lifted. The official data also show that total consumption fell by 1.1 per cent in the three months to March, which is the biggest quarterly decline in more than three decades.

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INDEED INCORPORATED,AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Rich hit hard as households lose $102b

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Original article by Andrew Tillett
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 7-May-20

Research by the Australian National University highlights the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic. The ANU’s survey suggests that the nation’s employment rate fell to 58.9 per cent in April, compared with 62 per cent in February. This equates to the loss of about 670,000 jobs. The ANU also estimates that the total loss of income for Australian households since the lockdowns began is about $102bn, while after-tax income on a per capita basis has fallen from $740 a week to $663. The richest 10 per cent of households have been hardest hit, with their income falling from $2,110 per week to $1,688.

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AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY

A majority of Australian businesses say we’re in recession

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Mar-20

A majority of 56% of Australian businesses say Australia is in its first ‘recession’ in nearly three decades, according to a special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Survey of 621 Australian businesses. Analysing by States shows over two-thirds (68%) of Queensland businesses say Australia is now in a ‘recession’ – higher than any other State. A majority of businesses in New South Wales (56%) and a slight majority in Victoria (51%) also agree that Australia is now in a ‘recession’. Although a small sample, Tasmanian businesses are more likely than those in any of the three larger States to say Australia is in a ‘recession’. In contrast a slim majority of businesses in both Western Australia (53%) and South Australia (52%) say Australia is ‘not’ in a ‘recession’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Economy in recession fear businesses

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: Online : 18-Mar-20

Businesses across the nation have declared the economy in recession for the first time in almost 30 years, as the death toll from the deadly coronavirus reaches five and infections soar above 450. Almost 60 per cent of more than 600 Australian businesses surveyed by Roy Morgan said the economy was in "recession" already, including almost 70 per cent in Queensland – more than any other state – whose tourism sector is expected to be hit especially hard by the collapse of international travel. "Some industries have been hit harder than others but majorities of businesses in most industries agree Australia is in a ‘recession’ including Manufacturing, Construction, Wholesale trade, Accommodation & Food services and Education & Training," said Roy Morgan chief executive Michelle Levine. "Although it’s obvious Australia is already in a ‘recession’ there are only a few things that can save Australia from experiencing a full-blown ‘depression’ which is recognised as a fall in GDP of at least 10 per cent," she added. The last recession in Australia in the early 1990s saw the jobless rate surge from 6.6 per cent to 9.5 per cent in the 12 months to 1991.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Australia’s economy beats expectations ahead of bushfire, coronavirus impacts

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Original article by Michael Janda
abc.net.au – Page: Online : 5-Mar-20

Official data shows that the Australian economy grew by 0.5 per cent in the December quarter and 2.2 per cent year-on-year. The general consensus of economists was for quarterly growth of 0.3-0.4 per cent and annual growth of two per cent. However, the full impact of the bushfires and the coronavirus outbreak will not be felt until GDP data for the first quarter of 2020 is released. Meanwhile, overall domestic demand increased by just 0.1 per cent in the December quarter, while business investment and resident construction fell. Sarah Hunter of BIS Oxford Economics says the economy is likely to contract in the March quarter, adding that the risk of a recession has increased.

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AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD

Canberra needs to act to fix slowing economy

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 21-Feb-20

Private domestic demand contracted in the year to 30 September, according to a chart published in the Reserve Bank’s latest ‘Statement of Monetary Policy’. This means the Australian domestic private economy was effectively in recession even before the negative impact of the bushfires and the coronavirus. With the cash rate at just 0.75 per cent, the RBA cannot do much more to stimulate the economy, so it is essentially up to the federal government to do so. This could include reforms to workplace relations, tax and competition, along with ongoing infrastructure spending and maintenance.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA