BANKS AND BANKING

Split emerges on interest rates forecast

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Original article by Jessica Sier
The Age – Page: 20 : 22-Dec-16

Westpac and ANZ Bank economists expect Australia’s cash rate to remain unchanged in 2017, while National Australia Bank suggests that there is potential for two rate cuts. Financial markets have responded to the release of the minutes of Reserve Bank’s December 2016 board meeting by lifting the chances of a rate rise in 2017 from 40 per cent to 55 per cent. The minutes show that the central bank is concerned about the residential property market and the level of household debt.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Central bank signals more hikes next year

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Original article by Harriet Torry
The Australian – Page: 30 : 16-Dec-16

The yield on 10-year US treasuries rose to 2.523 per cent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated after the Federal Reserve indicated that it is likely to lift the cash rate by 75 basis points in 2017. The central bank had been widely tipped to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points in December 2016, but policymakers had signalled in September that rates were likely to rise just twice in 2017. Federal Reserve officials have cited the outlook for inflation and the improving labour market as factors that prompted only the second rate rise in the last decade. Originally published in "The Wall Street Journal".

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, JP MORGAN CHASE AND COMPANY, WELLS FARGO BANK, BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION, ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, NAVY FEDERAL CREDIT UNION, MORTGAGE BANKERS’ ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA, FIRST PORTLAND MORTGAGE CORPORATION, ALASKA RETIREMENT MANAGEMENT BOARD, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

US hike won’t deter the RBA from following suit

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 28 : 14-Dec-16

The US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy statement is likely to attract more scrutiny than the outcome of its December 2016 meeting, as it is generally expected to lift the cash rate by 25 basis points. Meanwhile, the fall in National Australia Bank’s latest business conditions survey may strengthen the case for the Reserve Bank of Australia to further reduce official interest rates, particularly in the wake of the higher-than-expected decline in GDP growth for the September quarter.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST LOUIS, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Foreign banks fill lending void

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Original article by Scott Murdoch
The Australian – Page: 23 : 30-Nov-16

Data from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority shows that the average mortgage balance has risen from $A244,000 in 2015 to $A255,000. However, the value of new home loans grew by only 0.1 per cent year-on-year in the September 2016 quarter. A recent move by Australia’s major banks to reduce their lending to residential developers has also seen the value of offshore banks’ lending to local developers rise from $A1.49bn to $A2.65bn in the last year. Meanwhile, data from the Housing Industry Association shows that sales of new detached homes and apartments fell by 8.2 per cent and 9.2 per cent respectively in October.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION LIMITED, MORNINGSTAR PTY LTD

OECD urges interest rate hikes in 2017

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 29-Nov-16

The OECD states in its latest global economic outlook that the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to begin increasing official interest rates in late 2017. It also argues that the prospect of rate rises in the US will allow the RBA to act without any concern about putting upward pressure on the Australian dollar. Meanwhile, the OECD forecasts that Australia’s economic growth will rise toward three per cent in 2018, while it concludes that there is still scope for the Federal Government to increase spending on infrastructure projects.

CORPORATES
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Iron, coal rebound to lift rates

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Original article by David Rogers, Barry FitzGerald
The Australian – Page: 19 & 22 : 29-Nov-16

Coal and iron ore are currently trading at prices that are significantly above the forecasts made in the Australian Government’s May 2016 Budget. Based on current prices, the nation’s export earnings in 2016 will be about $A80bn higher than in 2015. Tim Toohey of Goldman Sachs says this should be sufficient to avert the risk of Australia’s credit rating being downgraded. Financial markets believe that there is also now a better-than-even chance of an increase in the cash rate by the end of 2017.

CORPORATES
GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BLOOMBERG LP

RBA likely to cut again but not in a hurry

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Original article by Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 35 : 3-Nov-16

Financial markets now consider that there is an eight per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce official interest rates in December 2016. However, there is now seen to be a 36 per cent change that rates will be cut by May 2017. Michael Blythe of the Commonwealth Bank anticipates another rate cut during the June quarter, while Paul Dales of Capital Economics says there is potential for the next change in monetary policy to be an increase in the cash rate.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED

Sydney houses cement price growth

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Original article by Su-Lin Tan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 2-Nov-16

Data from CoreLogic shows that house prices in Sydney increased by 10.2 per cent year-on-year in October 2016. House prices in Sydney also rose by more than 10 per cent year-on-year in September, after recording single-digit growth since February. Tim Lawless of CoreLogic says the Reserve Bank is likely to adopt a cautious approach to further easing of monetary policy due to rising house prices and high auction clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S CORPORATION, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED

$A heading to heights of US90c

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Original article by Aaron Patrick
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 19-Oct-16

Jason Thomas of The Carlyle Group is bullish about the outlook for the Australian dollar. The director of research forecasts that the US dollar will fall by 8-15 per cent over the next five years, as US interest rates are unlikely to rise as quickly as anticipated. Thomas says this in turn will boost the value of the Australian dollar, which could rise to around $US0.85 over the next five years. He adds that the currency could potentially test the $US0.90 level.

CORPORATES
THE CARLYLE GROUP, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF CHICAGO, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX

No more rate cuts: Morrison

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 10-Oct-16

Federal Treasurer Scott Morrison believes that the Reserve Bank of Australia should cease reducing the cash rate, arguing that monetary policy has reached the limit of its effectiveness in stimulating the economy. He says the focus should now shift to fiscal policy. The central bank has reduced the cash rate twice in 2016 but left it on hold at 1.5 per cent in October. Morrison notes that the heads of other central banks have acknowledged the declining effectiveness of monetary policy.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BANK OF ENGLAND, GREAT BRITAIN. OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, GROUP OF TWENTY (G-20), INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, PEOPLE’S BANK OF CHINA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD