BANKS AND BANKING

OECD urges interest rate hikes in 2017

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 29-Nov-16

The OECD states in its latest global economic outlook that the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to begin increasing official interest rates in late 2017. It also argues that the prospect of rate rises in the US will allow the RBA to act without any concern about putting upward pressure on the Australian dollar. Meanwhile, the OECD forecasts that Australia’s economic growth will rise toward three per cent in 2018, while it concludes that there is still scope for the Federal Government to increase spending on infrastructure projects.

CORPORATES
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Iron, coal rebound to lift rates

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Original article by David Rogers, Barry FitzGerald
The Australian – Page: 19 & 22 : 29-Nov-16

Coal and iron ore are currently trading at prices that are significantly above the forecasts made in the Australian Government’s May 2016 Budget. Based on current prices, the nation’s export earnings in 2016 will be about $A80bn higher than in 2015. Tim Toohey of Goldman Sachs says this should be sufficient to avert the risk of Australia’s credit rating being downgraded. Financial markets believe that there is also now a better-than-even chance of an increase in the cash rate by the end of 2017.

CORPORATES
GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BLOOMBERG LP

RBA likely to cut again but not in a hurry

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Original article by Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 35 : 3-Nov-16

Financial markets now consider that there is an eight per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce official interest rates in December 2016. However, there is now seen to be a 36 per cent change that rates will be cut by May 2017. Michael Blythe of the Commonwealth Bank anticipates another rate cut during the June quarter, while Paul Dales of Capital Economics says there is potential for the next change in monetary policy to be an increase in the cash rate.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED

Sydney houses cement price growth

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Original article by Su-Lin Tan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 2-Nov-16

Data from CoreLogic shows that house prices in Sydney increased by 10.2 per cent year-on-year in October 2016. House prices in Sydney also rose by more than 10 per cent year-on-year in September, after recording single-digit growth since February. Tim Lawless of CoreLogic says the Reserve Bank is likely to adopt a cautious approach to further easing of monetary policy due to rising house prices and high auction clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S CORPORATION, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED

$A heading to heights of US90c

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Original article by Aaron Patrick
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 19-Oct-16

Jason Thomas of The Carlyle Group is bullish about the outlook for the Australian dollar. The director of research forecasts that the US dollar will fall by 8-15 per cent over the next five years, as US interest rates are unlikely to rise as quickly as anticipated. Thomas says this in turn will boost the value of the Australian dollar, which could rise to around $US0.85 over the next five years. He adds that the currency could potentially test the $US0.90 level.

CORPORATES
THE CARLYLE GROUP, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF CHICAGO, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX

No more rate cuts: Morrison

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 10-Oct-16

Federal Treasurer Scott Morrison believes that the Reserve Bank of Australia should cease reducing the cash rate, arguing that monetary policy has reached the limit of its effectiveness in stimulating the economy. He says the focus should now shift to fiscal policy. The central bank has reduced the cash rate twice in 2016 but left it on hold at 1.5 per cent in October. Morrison notes that the heads of other central banks have acknowledged the declining effectiveness of monetary policy.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BANK OF ENGLAND, GREAT BRITAIN. OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, GROUP OF TWENTY (G-20), INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, PEOPLE’S BANK OF CHINA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Rates low enough to spur growth: RBA

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 28 : 5-Oct-16

Financial markets have priced in a 20 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate in November 2016. The central bank left official interest rates on hold at 1.5 per cent on 4 October, and governor Philip Lowe said the board decided that the cash rate is at an appropriate level to deliver sustainable economic growth and meet the bank’s inflation target over the long-term. Lowe’s statement notably made no reference to the upcoming release of inflation data.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

No rate cut likely as surveys back inaction

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 2 : 4-Oct-16

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely tipped to leave the cash rate unchanged on 4 October 2016. The findings of the Australian Industry Group’s latest manufacturing survey support the case for rates to be left on hold. It shows that business conditions improved in key sectors of the manufacturing industry during September. Other recent surveys has also been upbeat about business conditions.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP, AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, DUN AND BRADSTREET (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD

Lowe: RBA can only do so much

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 23-Sep-16

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe sees the role of the central bank as primarily dealing with inflation. He told members of the House of Representatives economics committee in Sydney on 22 September 2016 that interest rate cuts can only have a limited impact on the property market. Lowe said house prices are high because of inadequate supply and easy access to credit.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Investors warned not to expect smooth ride

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 23-Sep-16

Australian equity strategists are cautious about the near-term outlook for the domestic bourse, with most still expecting the S&P/ASX 200 to be trading at around the 5,500-point level at the end of 2016. Meanwhile, Tony Brennan of Citigroup forecasts that the benchmark index will top 5,750 points by mid-2017. With the US Federal Reserve opting to leave interest rates on hold in September, David Cassidy of UBS says the presidential election could influence the timing of the next interest rate move.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BANK OF JAPAN